Democratic expectations of regaining House control in the November 2026 midterms represent the central driver behind the 68% implied probability for impeachment before January 2029. Multiple resolutions, including H.Res.537 introduced in June 2025 and earlier filings by Rep. Al Green, have already been offered on grounds tied to executive actions and foreign policy statements. Democratic lawmakers intensified calls during the 2026 Iran conflict, citing presidential rhetoric on military options and alleged threats of escalation. With Republican majorities currently blocking floor action, traders view midterm results as the pivotal variable that could enable simple-majority passage of articles. Historical patterns of partisan House voting and the absence of bipartisan support for conviction in the Senate further shape assessments of the full-term window, while shorter-horizon markets price near-term passage near zero.
Eksperymentalne podsumowanie AI odwołujące się do danych Polymarket. To nie jest porada handlowa i nie ma wpływu na rozstrzyganie tego rynku. · ZaktualizowanoWill Trump be impeached before his term ends?
Will Trump be impeached before his term ends?
68% szansa
$94,121 Wol.
$94,121 Wol.
Jan 19, 2029
68% szansa
$94,121 Wol.
$94,121 Wol.
Jan 19, 2029
This market will resolve to “Yes“ if the US House of Representatives, by simple majority vote, approves or passes one or more articles of impeachment of President Donald Trump between market creation and January 20, 2029, at 12:00 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Neither trial nor conviction by the US Senate, nor removal from office, is necessary to resolve this market to “Yes“.
The primary resolution source for this market will be information from the federal government of the United States; however, a consensus of credible reporting will be used.Democratic expectations of regaining House control in the November 2026 midterms represent the central driver behind the 68% implied probability for impeachment before January 2029. Multiple resolutions, including H.Res.537 introduced in June 2025 and earlier filings by Rep. Al Green, have already been offered on grounds tied to executive actions and foreign policy statements. Democratic lawmakers intensified calls during the 2026 Iran conflict, citing presidential rhetoric on military options and alleged threats of escalation. With Republican majorities currently blocking floor action, traders view midterm results as the pivotal variable that could enable simple-majority passage of articles. Historical patterns of partisan House voting and the absence of bipartisan support for conviction in the Senate further shape assessments of the full-term window, while shorter-horizon markets price near-term passage near zero.
This market will resolve to “Yes“ if the US House of Representatives, by simple majority vote, approves or passes one or more articles of impeachment of President Donald Trump between market creation and January 20, 2029, at 12:00 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Neither trial nor conviction by the US Senate, nor removal from office, is necessary to resolve this market to “Yes“.
The primary resolution source for this market will be information from the federal government of the United States; however, a consensus of credible reporting will be used.
Neither trial nor conviction by the US Senate, nor removal from office, is necessary to resolve this market to “Yes“.
The primary resolution source for this market will be information from the federal government of the United States; however, a consensus of credible reporting will be used.
Rynek otwarty: Mar 19, 2026, 2:04 PM ET
Wolumen
$94,121Data zakończenia
Jan 20, 2029Rynek otwarty
Mar 19, 2026, 2:04 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes“ if the US House of Representatives, by simple majority vote, approves or passes one or more articles of impeachment of President Donald Trump between market creation and January 20, 2029, at 12:00 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Neither trial nor conviction by the US Senate, nor removal from office, is necessary to resolve this market to “Yes“.
The primary resolution source for this market will be information from the federal government of the United States; however, a consensus of credible reporting will be used.Democratic expectations of regaining House control in the November 2026 midterms represent the central driver behind the 68% implied probability for impeachment before January 2029. Multiple resolutions, including H.Res.537 introduced in June 2025 and earlier filings by Rep. Al Green, have already been offered on grounds tied to executive actions and foreign policy statements. Democratic lawmakers intensified calls during the 2026 Iran conflict, citing presidential rhetoric on military options and alleged threats of escalation. With Republican majorities currently blocking floor action, traders view midterm results as the pivotal variable that could enable simple-majority passage of articles. Historical patterns of partisan House voting and the absence of bipartisan support for conviction in the Senate further shape assessments of the full-term window, while shorter-horizon markets price near-term passage near zero.
This market will resolve to “Yes“ if the US House of Representatives, by simple majority vote, approves or passes one or more articles of impeachment of President Donald Trump between market creation and January 20, 2029, at 12:00 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Neither trial nor conviction by the US Senate, nor removal from office, is necessary to resolve this market to “Yes“.
The primary resolution source for this market will be information from the federal government of the United States; however, a consensus of credible reporting will be used.
Neither trial nor conviction by the US Senate, nor removal from office, is necessary to resolve this market to “Yes“.
The primary resolution source for this market will be information from the federal government of the United States; however, a consensus of credible reporting will be used.
Wolumen
$94,121Data zakończenia
Jan 20, 2029Rynek otwarty
Mar 19, 2026, 2:04 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Democratic expectations of regaining House control in the November 2026 midterms represent the central driver behind the 68% implied probability for impeachment before January 2029. Multiple resolutions, including H.Res.537 introduced in June 2025 and earlier filings by Rep. Al Green, have already been offered on grounds tied to executive actions and foreign policy statements. Democratic lawmakers intensified calls during the 2026 Iran conflict, citing presidential rhetoric on military options and alleged threats of escalation. With Republican majorities currently blocking floor action, traders view midterm results as the pivotal variable that could enable simple-majority passage of articles. Historical patterns of partisan House voting and the absence of bipartisan support for conviction in the Senate further shape assessments of the full-term window, while shorter-horizon markets price near-term passage near zero.
Eksperymentalne podsumowanie AI odwołujące się do danych Polymarket. To nie jest porada handlowa i nie ma wpływu na rozstrzyganie tego rynku. · Zaktualizowano
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