Democratic control of the House after the November 2026 midterms represents the central driver of trader probabilities for a Trump impeachment vote. Republicans currently hold the chamber and have tabled recent Democratic resolutions, including one introduced by Rep. Al Green in September 2026 and a broader 26-article measure from Rep. Steve Cohen. House Democratic leaders have stated they have not ruled out impeachment proceedings if they regain the majority, citing oversight of executive actions, spending, and administration officials as priorities. Prediction markets price near-term impeachment through 2026 at low single digits while assigning roughly even odds to action by late 2027, reflecting the November elections as the pivotal event that could shift House voting thresholds and committee control.