Rising US Treasury yields to levels last seen in 2007, a firmer dollar, and elevated oil prices from Iran-Hormuz tensions drove gold sharply lower during the week of September 28, 2026. Spot XAUUSD broke below $4,230 support and tested lows near $4,110–$4,140, its weakest since early August, as markets priced roughly 70% odds of an October Fed rate hike following the prior 25-basis-point increase. Softer core PCE data later eased some hike expectations, yet higher real yields and energy costs kept pressure on the non-yielding metal. Key labor-market releases including NFP added volatility, while month-end positioning and technical oversold conditions prompted modest rebounds toward $4,160–$4,180 by week’s end.
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