Recent preliminary analyses from monitoring groups show August 1, 2026, establishing a new Northern Hemisphere daily average temperature record of roughly 22.4–22.7 °C, exceeding prior peaks amid a rapidly strengthening El Niño that has driven sea-surface temperature anomalies above +2 °C in key Pacific regions. This builds on 2026’s pattern of near-record months, including the second-warmest June and a July tied with 2024 as the globe’s warmest on record per NOAA data. Long-term anthropogenic warming provides the baseline trend that amplifies such extremes. Market-implied odds near 97 % for first-hottest reflect trader assessment of these early observations, though final rankings from Copernicus, NASA, or Berkeley Earth could shift modestly with complete datasets or reanalysis adjustments.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket. Isto não é aconselhamento de trading e não tem qualquer papel na resolução deste mercado. · Atualizado2026 1 de agosto, 2 de agosto, 3 de agosto mais quente já registrado?
2026 1 de agosto, 2 de agosto, 3 de agosto mais quente já registrado?
1st hottest 96.6%
2nd hottest 2.7%
3rd hottest 2.3%
4th or lower 1.2%
NOVO
NOVO
31 ago 2026
1st hottest
97%
2nd hottest
3%
3rd hottest
2%
4th or lower
1%
1st hottest 96.6%
2nd hottest 2.7%
3rd hottest 2.3%
4th or lower 1.2%
NOVO
NOVO
31 ago 2026
1st hottest
$510 Vol.
97%
2nd hottest
$334 Vol.
3%
3rd hottest
$152 Vol.
2%
4th or lower
$151 Vol.
1%
This market will resolve based on the data for the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index for August 2026 versus the data points available for all other Augusts on record.
Note: If August 2026 is tied for first, second, or third hottest with another year, it will qualify for the bracket it ties with.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figures found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "Aug" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt). If NASA's "Global Temperature Index" is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
If no information for August 2026 is provided by NASA by September 30, 2026, 11:59:59 PM ET, a consensus of credible sources will be used to resolve this market.Recent preliminary analyses from monitoring groups show August 1, 2026, establishing a new Northern Hemisphere daily average temperature record of roughly 22.4–22.7 °C, exceeding prior peaks amid a rapidly strengthening El Niño that has driven sea-surface temperature anomalies above +2 °C in key Pacific regions. This builds on 2026’s pattern of near-record months, including the second-warmest June and a July tied with 2024 as the globe’s warmest on record per NOAA data. Long-term anthropogenic warming provides the baseline trend that amplifies such extremes. Market-implied odds near 97 % for first-hottest reflect trader assessment of these early observations, though final rankings from Copernicus, NASA, or Berkeley Earth could shift modestly with complete datasets or reanalysis adjustments.
This market will resolve based on the data for the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index for August 2026 versus the data points available for all other Augusts on record.
Note: If August 2026 is tied for first, second, or third hottest with another year, it will qualify for the bracket it ties with.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figures found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "Aug" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt). If NASA's "Global Temperature Index" is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
If no information for August 2026 is provided by NASA by September 30, 2026, 11:59:59 PM ET, a consensus of credible sources will be used to resolve this market.
Note: If August 2026 is tied for first, second, or third hottest with another year, it will qualify for the bracket it ties with.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figures found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "Aug" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt). If NASA's "Global Temperature Index" is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
If no information for August 2026 is provided by NASA by September 30, 2026, 11:59:59 PM ET, a consensus of credible sources will be used to resolve this market.
Mercado Aberto: Jul 28, 2026, 1:44 PM ET
Volume
$1,147Data de Término
1 set 2026Mercado Aberto
Jul 28, 2026, 1:44 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve based on the data for the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index for August 2026 versus the data points available for all other Augusts on record.
Note: If August 2026 is tied for first, second, or third hottest with another year, it will qualify for the bracket it ties with.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figures found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "Aug" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt). If NASA's "Global Temperature Index" is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
If no information for August 2026 is provided by NASA by September 30, 2026, 11:59:59 PM ET, a consensus of credible sources will be used to resolve this market.Recent preliminary analyses from monitoring groups show August 1, 2026, establishing a new Northern Hemisphere daily average temperature record of roughly 22.4–22.7 °C, exceeding prior peaks amid a rapidly strengthening El Niño that has driven sea-surface temperature anomalies above +2 °C in key Pacific regions. This builds on 2026’s pattern of near-record months, including the second-warmest June and a July tied with 2024 as the globe’s warmest on record per NOAA data. Long-term anthropogenic warming provides the baseline trend that amplifies such extremes. Market-implied odds near 97 % for first-hottest reflect trader assessment of these early observations, though final rankings from Copernicus, NASA, or Berkeley Earth could shift modestly with complete datasets or reanalysis adjustments.
This market will resolve based on the data for the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index for August 2026 versus the data points available for all other Augusts on record.
Note: If August 2026 is tied for first, second, or third hottest with another year, it will qualify for the bracket it ties with.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figures found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "Aug" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt). If NASA's "Global Temperature Index" is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
If no information for August 2026 is provided by NASA by September 30, 2026, 11:59:59 PM ET, a consensus of credible sources will be used to resolve this market.
Note: If August 2026 is tied for first, second, or third hottest with another year, it will qualify for the bracket it ties with.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figures found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "Aug" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt). If NASA's "Global Temperature Index" is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
If no information for August 2026 is provided by NASA by September 30, 2026, 11:59:59 PM ET, a consensus of credible sources will be used to resolve this market.
Volume
$1,147Data de Término
1 set 2026Mercado Aberto
Jul 28, 2026, 1:44 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent preliminary analyses from monitoring groups show August 1, 2026, establishing a new Northern Hemisphere daily average temperature record of roughly 22.4–22.7 °C, exceeding prior peaks amid a rapidly strengthening El Niño that has driven sea-surface temperature anomalies above +2 °C in key Pacific regions. This builds on 2026’s pattern of near-record months, including the second-warmest June and a July tied with 2024 as the globe’s warmest on record per NOAA data. Long-term anthropogenic warming provides the baseline trend that amplifies such extremes. Market-implied odds near 97 % for first-hottest reflect trader assessment of these early observations, though final rankings from Copernicus, NASA, or Berkeley Earth could shift modestly with complete datasets or reanalysis adjustments.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket. Isto não é aconselhamento de trading e não tem qualquer papel na resolução deste mercado. · Atualizado
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