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Política·Primárias

AL-01 Vencedor da primária republicana

icon for AL-01 Vencedor da primária republicana
Política·Primárias

AL-01 Vencedor da primária republicana

Jerry Carl 100.0%

Rhett Marques 5.5%

James Dees <1%

Joshua McKee <1%

Polymarket

$50,725 Vol.

Jerry Carl 100.0%

Rhett Marques 5.5%

James Dees <1%

Joshua McKee <1%

Polymarket

$50,725 Vol.

Jerry Carl

$6,571 Vol.

Sim

James Dees

$4,733 Vol.

Não

Rhett Marques

$1,081 Vol.

Não

Joshua McKee

$242 Vol.

Não

John Mills

$16,885 Vol.

Não

James Richardson

$7,329 Vol.

Não

Austin Sidwell

$13,885 Vol.

Não

This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the nomination for the Republican Party to contest the AL-01 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The Republican primary will take place on May 19, 2026. If no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Republican sources, including https://www.rnc.org/. Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.Jerry Carl secured the Republican nomination for Alabama's 1st Congressional District in the August 11, 2026, special primary, driving the market's 100% consensus on his victory. As the former U.S. representative for the district from 2021 to 2025, Carl benefited from strong name recognition, established local networks in Mobile and Baldwin counties, and the open seat created by incumbent Barry Moore's Senate bid. His campaign emphasized continuity on district priorities amid low-turnout concerns for the special election. With results now finalized and Carl advancing to face the Democratic nominee in November, the implied probability reflects confirmed primary outcomes. Late shifts remain possible only in the event of unresolved procedural disputes, such as official certification delays or recounts, though historical patterns in Alabama Republican primaries show such challenges rarely alter decisive results.

This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the nomination for the Republican Party to contest the AL-01 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The Republican primary will take place on May 19, 2026.

If no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".

The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Republican sources, including https://www.rnc.org/.

Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.
Volume
$50,725
Data de Término
19 mai 2026
Mercado Aberto
Mar 26, 2026, 4:19 PM ET

Resolver

0x69c47De9D...
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the nomination for the Republican Party to contest the AL-01 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The Republican primary will take place on May 19, 2026. If no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Republican sources, including https://www.rnc.org/. Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.

Resultado proposto: Sim

Sem contestação

Resultado final: Sim

This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the nomination for the Republican Party to contest the AL-01 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The Republican primary will take place on May 19, 2026. If no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Republican sources, including https://www.rnc.org/. Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.Jerry Carl secured the Republican nomination for Alabama's 1st Congressional District in the August 11, 2026, special primary, driving the market's 100% consensus on his victory. As the former U.S. representative for the district from 2021 to 2025, Carl benefited from strong name recognition, established local networks in Mobile and Baldwin counties, and the open seat created by incumbent Barry Moore's Senate bid. His campaign emphasized continuity on district priorities amid low-turnout concerns for the special election. With results now finalized and Carl advancing to face the Democratic nominee in November, the implied probability reflects confirmed primary outcomes. Late shifts remain possible only in the event of unresolved procedural disputes, such as official certification delays or recounts, though historical patterns in Alabama Republican primaries show such challenges rarely alter decisive results.

This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the nomination for the Republican Party to contest the AL-01 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The Republican primary will take place on May 19, 2026.

If no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".

The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Republican sources, including https://www.rnc.org/.

Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.
Volume
$50,725
Data de Término
19 mai 2026
Mercado Aberto
Mar 26, 2026, 4:19 PM ET

Resolver

0x69c47De9D...
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the nomination for the Republican Party to contest the AL-01 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The Republican primary will take place on May 19, 2026. If no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Republican sources, including https://www.rnc.org/. Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.

Resultado proposto: Sim

Sem contestação

Resultado final: Sim

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Cuidado com os links externos.

Frequently Asked Questions

"AL-01 Vencedor da primária republicana" is a prediction market on Polymarket with 7 possible outcomes where traders buy and sell shares based on what they believe will happen. The current leading outcome is "Jerry Carl" at 100%, followed by "James Dees" at 0%. Prices reflect real-time crowd-sourced probabilities. For example, a share priced at 100¢ implies that the market collectively assigns a 100% chance to that outcome. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

As of today, "AL-01 Vencedor da primária republicana" has generated $50.7K in total trading volume since the market launched on Mar 26, 2026. This level of trading activity reflects strong engagement from the Polymarket community and helps ensure that the current odds are informed by a deep pool of market participants. You can track live price movements and trade on any outcome directly on this page.

To trade on "AL-01 Vencedor da primária republicana," browse the 7 available outcomes listed on this page. Each outcome displays a current price representing the market's implied probability. To take a position, select the outcome you believe is most likely, choose "Yes" to trade in favor of it or "No" to trade against it, enter your amount, and click "Trade." If your chosen outcome is correct when the market resolves, your "Yes" shares pay out $1 each. If it's incorrect, they pay out $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

The current frontrunner for "AL-01 Vencedor da primária republicana" is "Jerry Carl" at 100%, meaning the market assigns a 100% chance to that outcome. The next closest outcome is "James Dees" at 0%. These odds update in real-time as traders buy and sell shares, so they reflect the latest collective view of what's most likely to happen. Check back frequently or bookmark this page to follow how the odds shift as new information emerges.

The resolution rules for "AL-01 Vencedor da primária republicana" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.