Drake’s “Iceman” debut, released alongside surprise projects “Habibti” and “Maid of Honour” on May 15, has driven the tightest clustering around the 500k–600k range on Polymarket. Traders cite the album’s record-setting Spotify single-day streams for both the project and lead track “Make Them Cry” as the primary upward catalyst, yet view the momentum as solid rather than explosive following the extended Kendrick Lamar feud cycle. Historical benchmarks like For All the Dogs’ 402k first-week units anchor expectations, while the simultaneous drop raises questions about consumption splitting across the trilogy. With the tracking week still underway, final Billboard equivalent-album figures and any late promotional surges remain the key swing factors that could push totals toward or beyond the current 600k+ frontrunner.