Kansas leads trader consensus as the GOP's most vulnerable Great Plains Senate race due to Democratic nominee Adam Hamilton, a prominent megachurch pastor whose strong fundraising and appeal have tightened the contest against incumbent Roger Marshall into low-single-digit margins in recent polling. Agricultural challenges from tariffs and input costs have pressured Republican support across the region, but Kansas has seen the clearest shift from safe to likely Republican ratings. In Iowa, the open seat pitting Republican Ashley Hinson against Democrat Josh Turek remains a toss-up with similar economic headwinds, while Nebraska features incumbent Pete Ricketts facing independent Dan Osborn's repeat challenge after a narrow 2024 loss. These candidate quality and farm economy factors explain the current implied probabilities.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket. Isto não é aconselhamento de trading e não tem qualquer papel na resolução deste mercado. · AtualizadoNebraska 31%
Iowa 31%
Kansas 19%
NOVO
NOVO
3 nov 2026
Nebraska
31%
Iowa
31%
Kansas
32%
Nebraska 31%
Iowa 31%
Kansas 19%
NOVO
NOVO
3 nov 2026
Nebraska
$0 Vol.
31%
Iowa
$0 Vol.
31%
Kansas
$26 Vol.
32%
The 2026 midterm elections are scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the state, out of those listed, in which the Republican Senate candidate earns the lowest vote share percentage in the midterm election.
Vote share percentages will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes for each candidate by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
For elections that include runoffs, ranked-choice, or other multi-round elections, the relevant vote share will be that of the last-reported round containing a Republican, and only non-exhausted ballots will be considered to be valid in that round. In the event that such a round contains multiple Republicans, the relevant vote share will be that of the Republican with the higher vote share.
If two vote shares are identical, this market will rank the tied states in alphabetical order.
In the event that the relevant vote share for a state cannot be determined by March 31, 2027, that state will not be considered for purposes of this market.
The resolution source for this market will be a compilation of all of the relevant state election authorities responsible for certifying statewide elections, however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Kansas leads trader consensus as the GOP's most vulnerable Great Plains Senate race due to Democratic nominee Adam Hamilton, a prominent megachurch pastor whose strong fundraising and appeal have tightened the contest against incumbent Roger Marshall into low-single-digit margins in recent polling. Agricultural challenges from tariffs and input costs have pressured Republican support across the region, but Kansas has seen the clearest shift from safe to likely Republican ratings. In Iowa, the open seat pitting Republican Ashley Hinson against Democrat Josh Turek remains a toss-up with similar economic headwinds, while Nebraska features incumbent Pete Ricketts facing independent Dan Osborn's repeat challenge after a narrow 2024 loss. These candidate quality and farm economy factors explain the current implied probabilities.
The 2026 midterm elections are scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the state, out of those listed, in which the Republican Senate candidate earns the lowest vote share percentage in the midterm election.
Vote share percentages will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes for each candidate by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
For elections that include runoffs, ranked-choice, or other multi-round elections, the relevant vote share will be that of the last-reported round containing a Republican, and only non-exhausted ballots will be considered to be valid in that round. In the event that such a round contains multiple Republicans, the relevant vote share will be that of the Republican with the higher vote share.
If two vote shares are identical, this market will rank the tied states in alphabetical order.
In the event that the relevant vote share for a state cannot be determined by March 31, 2027, that state will not be considered for purposes of this market.
The resolution source for this market will be a compilation of all of the relevant state election authorities responsible for certifying statewide elections, however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market will resolve according to the state, out of those listed, in which the Republican Senate candidate earns the lowest vote share percentage in the midterm election.
Vote share percentages will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes for each candidate by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
For elections that include runoffs, ranked-choice, or other multi-round elections, the relevant vote share will be that of the last-reported round containing a Republican, and only non-exhausted ballots will be considered to be valid in that round. In the event that such a round contains multiple Republicans, the relevant vote share will be that of the Republican with the higher vote share.
If two vote shares are identical, this market will rank the tied states in alphabetical order.
In the event that the relevant vote share for a state cannot be determined by March 31, 2027, that state will not be considered for purposes of this market.
The resolution source for this market will be a compilation of all of the relevant state election authorities responsible for certifying statewide elections, however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Mercado Aberto: Sep 17, 2026, 1:23 PM ET
Volume
$26Data de Término
3 nov 2026Mercado Aberto
Sep 17, 2026, 1:23 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...The 2026 midterm elections are scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the state, out of those listed, in which the Republican Senate candidate earns the lowest vote share percentage in the midterm election.
Vote share percentages will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes for each candidate by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
For elections that include runoffs, ranked-choice, or other multi-round elections, the relevant vote share will be that of the last-reported round containing a Republican, and only non-exhausted ballots will be considered to be valid in that round. In the event that such a round contains multiple Republicans, the relevant vote share will be that of the Republican with the higher vote share.
If two vote shares are identical, this market will rank the tied states in alphabetical order.
In the event that the relevant vote share for a state cannot be determined by March 31, 2027, that state will not be considered for purposes of this market.
The resolution source for this market will be a compilation of all of the relevant state election authorities responsible for certifying statewide elections, however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Kansas leads trader consensus as the GOP's most vulnerable Great Plains Senate race due to Democratic nominee Adam Hamilton, a prominent megachurch pastor whose strong fundraising and appeal have tightened the contest against incumbent Roger Marshall into low-single-digit margins in recent polling. Agricultural challenges from tariffs and input costs have pressured Republican support across the region, but Kansas has seen the clearest shift from safe to likely Republican ratings. In Iowa, the open seat pitting Republican Ashley Hinson against Democrat Josh Turek remains a toss-up with similar economic headwinds, while Nebraska features incumbent Pete Ricketts facing independent Dan Osborn's repeat challenge after a narrow 2024 loss. These candidate quality and farm economy factors explain the current implied probabilities.
The 2026 midterm elections are scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the state, out of those listed, in which the Republican Senate candidate earns the lowest vote share percentage in the midterm election.
Vote share percentages will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes for each candidate by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
For elections that include runoffs, ranked-choice, or other multi-round elections, the relevant vote share will be that of the last-reported round containing a Republican, and only non-exhausted ballots will be considered to be valid in that round. In the event that such a round contains multiple Republicans, the relevant vote share will be that of the Republican with the higher vote share.
If two vote shares are identical, this market will rank the tied states in alphabetical order.
In the event that the relevant vote share for a state cannot be determined by March 31, 2027, that state will not be considered for purposes of this market.
The resolution source for this market will be a compilation of all of the relevant state election authorities responsible for certifying statewide elections, however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market will resolve according to the state, out of those listed, in which the Republican Senate candidate earns the lowest vote share percentage in the midterm election.
Vote share percentages will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes for each candidate by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
For elections that include runoffs, ranked-choice, or other multi-round elections, the relevant vote share will be that of the last-reported round containing a Republican, and only non-exhausted ballots will be considered to be valid in that round. In the event that such a round contains multiple Republicans, the relevant vote share will be that of the Republican with the higher vote share.
If two vote shares are identical, this market will rank the tied states in alphabetical order.
In the event that the relevant vote share for a state cannot be determined by March 31, 2027, that state will not be considered for purposes of this market.
The resolution source for this market will be a compilation of all of the relevant state election authorities responsible for certifying statewide elections, however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Volume
$26Data de Término
3 nov 2026Mercado Aberto
Sep 17, 2026, 1:23 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Kansas leads trader consensus as the GOP's most vulnerable Great Plains Senate race due to Democratic nominee Adam Hamilton, a prominent megachurch pastor whose strong fundraising and appeal have tightened the contest against incumbent Roger Marshall into low-single-digit margins in recent polling. Agricultural challenges from tariffs and input costs have pressured Republican support across the region, but Kansas has seen the clearest shift from safe to likely Republican ratings. In Iowa, the open seat pitting Republican Ashley Hinson against Democrat Josh Turek remains a toss-up with similar economic headwinds, while Nebraska features incumbent Pete Ricketts facing independent Dan Osborn's repeat challenge after a narrow 2024 loss. These candidate quality and farm economy factors explain the current implied probabilities.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket. Isto não é aconselhamento de trading e não tem qualquer papel na resolução deste mercado. · Atualizado
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