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Política·Manchester

Vencedor das eleições municipais da Grande Manchester

icon for Vencedor das eleições municipais da Grande Manchester
Política·Manchester

Vencedor das eleições municipais da Grande Manchester

Bev Craig 91%

Dan Barker 5.2%

Geraldine Coggins <1%

Marlon Scott West <1%

Polymarket

$150,296 Vol.

Bev Craig 91%

Dan Barker 5.2%

Geraldine Coggins <1%

Marlon Scott West <1%

Polymarket

$150,296 Vol.

icon for Bev Craig

Bev Craig

$97,403 Vol.

91%

icon for Dan Barker

Dan Barker

$9,299 Vol.

5%

icon for Geraldine Coggins

Geraldine Coggins

$24,536 Vol.

1%

icon for Marlon Scott West

Marlon Scott West

$1,652 Vol.

1%

icon for Kate Green

Kate Green

$2,364 Vol.

1%

icon for Laura Evans

Laura Evans

$4,265 Vol.

<1%

icon for Richard Kilpatrick

Richard Kilpatrick

$849 Vol.

<1%

icon for Hannah Spencer

Hannah Spencer

$3,315 Vol.

<1%

icon for Jake Austin

Jake Austin

$565 Vol.

<1%

icon for Paul Dennett

Paul Dennett

$1,625 Vol.

<1%

icon for Nick Buckley

Nick Buckley

$3,594 Vol.

<1%

icon for Arooj Shah

Arooj Shah

$829 Vol.

<1%

The 2026 Greater Manchester mayoral election is currently scheduled to be held on July 30, 2026. This market will resolve according to the candidate who becomes the next Mayor of Greater Manchester as a result of this election. Temporary, interim, or placeholder mayors appointed before the election will not be considered. If the result of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other". The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting; however, if there is any ambiguity in the results, this market will resolve according to official information from Greater Manchester Combined Authority (https://www.gmelects.org.uk/).The Greater Manchester mayoral by-election on 30 July 2026, triggered by Andy Burnham’s resignation after winning the Makerfield parliamentary seat, features a compressed timeline that keeps probabilities clustered among leading Labour figures and several opposition contenders. Trader pricing reflects uncertainty over Labour’s selection process, with Bev Craig positioned as the frontrunner alongside names such as Arooj Shah and others in the party’s local base, while Paul Dennett serves only as interim acting mayor. Recent developments, including the by-election date confirmation and candidate speculation, have prevented any single outcome from pulling ahead decisively. Factors such as voter turnout patterns, supplementary vote mechanics, and the performance of Reform UK, Conservative, Liberal Democrat, Green, and independent candidates could still shift implied probabilities before nominations close and ballots are cast.

The 2026 Greater Manchester mayoral election is currently scheduled to be held on July 30, 2026.

This market will resolve according to the candidate who becomes the next Mayor of Greater Manchester as a result of this election.

Temporary, interim, or placeholder mayors appointed before the election will not be considered.

If the result of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".

The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting; however, if there is any ambiguity in the results, this market will resolve according to official information from Greater Manchester Combined Authority (https://www.gmelects.org.uk/).
Volume
$150,296
Data de Término
30 jul 2026
Mercado Aberto
Jun 19, 2026, 11:58 AM ET

Resolver

0x69c47De9D...
The 2026 Greater Manchester mayoral election is currently scheduled to be held on July 30, 2026. This market will resolve according to the candidate who becomes the next Mayor of Greater Manchester as a result of this election. Temporary, interim, or placeholder mayors appointed before the election will not be considered. If the result of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other". The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting; however, if there is any ambiguity in the results, this market will resolve according to official information from Greater Manchester Combined Authority (https://www.gmelects.org.uk/).
The 2026 Greater Manchester mayoral election is currently scheduled to be held on July 30, 2026. This market will resolve according to the candidate who becomes the next Mayor of Greater Manchester as a result of this election. Temporary, interim, or placeholder mayors appointed before the election will not be considered. If the result of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other". The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting; however, if there is any ambiguity in the results, this market will resolve according to official information from Greater Manchester Combined Authority (https://www.gmelects.org.uk/).The Greater Manchester mayoral by-election on 30 July 2026, triggered by Andy Burnham’s resignation after winning the Makerfield parliamentary seat, features a compressed timeline that keeps probabilities clustered among leading Labour figures and several opposition contenders. Trader pricing reflects uncertainty over Labour’s selection process, with Bev Craig positioned as the frontrunner alongside names such as Arooj Shah and others in the party’s local base, while Paul Dennett serves only as interim acting mayor. Recent developments, including the by-election date confirmation and candidate speculation, have prevented any single outcome from pulling ahead decisively. Factors such as voter turnout patterns, supplementary vote mechanics, and the performance of Reform UK, Conservative, Liberal Democrat, Green, and independent candidates could still shift implied probabilities before nominations close and ballots are cast.

The 2026 Greater Manchester mayoral election is currently scheduled to be held on July 30, 2026.

This market will resolve according to the candidate who becomes the next Mayor of Greater Manchester as a result of this election.

Temporary, interim, or placeholder mayors appointed before the election will not be considered.

If the result of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".

The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting; however, if there is any ambiguity in the results, this market will resolve according to official information from Greater Manchester Combined Authority (https://www.gmelects.org.uk/).
Volume
$150,296
Data de Término
30 jul 2026
Mercado Aberto
Jun 19, 2026, 11:58 AM ET

Resolver

0x69c47De9D...
The 2026 Greater Manchester mayoral election is currently scheduled to be held on July 30, 2026. This market will resolve according to the candidate who becomes the next Mayor of Greater Manchester as a result of this election. Temporary, interim, or placeholder mayors appointed before the election will not be considered. If the result of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other". The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting; however, if there is any ambiguity in the results, this market will resolve according to official information from Greater Manchester Combined Authority (https://www.gmelects.org.uk/).

Cuidado com os links externos.

Frequently Asked Questions

"Vencedor das eleições municipais da Grande Manchester" is a prediction market on Polymarket with 12 possible outcomes where traders buy and sell shares based on what they believe will happen. The current leading outcome is "Bev Craig" at 91%, followed by "Dan Barker" at 5%. Prices reflect real-time crowd-sourced probabilities. For example, a share priced at 91¢ implies that the market collectively assigns a 91% chance to that outcome. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

As of today, "Vencedor das eleições municipais da Grande Manchester" has generated $150.3K in total trading volume since the market launched on Jun 19, 2026. This level of trading activity reflects strong engagement from the Polymarket community and helps ensure that the current odds are informed by a deep pool of market participants. You can track live price movements and trade on any outcome directly on this page.

To trade on "Vencedor das eleições municipais da Grande Manchester," browse the 12 available outcomes listed on this page. Each outcome displays a current price representing the market's implied probability. To take a position, select the outcome you believe is most likely, choose "Yes" to trade in favor of it or "No" to trade against it, enter your amount, and click "Trade." If your chosen outcome is correct when the market resolves, your "Yes" shares pay out $1 each. If it's incorrect, they pay out $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

The current frontrunner for "Vencedor das eleições municipais da Grande Manchester" is "Bev Craig" at 91%, meaning the market assigns a 91% chance to that outcome. The next closest outcome is "Dan Barker" at 5%. These odds update in real-time as traders buy and sell shares, so they reflect the latest collective view of what's most likely to happen. Check back frequently or bookmark this page to follow how the odds shift as new information emerges.

The resolution rules for "Vencedor das eleições municipais da Grande Manchester" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.