Official forecasts from the Korea Meteorological Administration indicate a daytime maximum near 32–33°C for Busan on August 13 under mostly cloudy skies, light easterly winds, and moderate humidity levels around 70–90%, aligning closely with seasonal averages of 29–31°C highs for mid-August. This consensus, backed by short-range model runs and current observations of 26–28°C morning readings, drives the overwhelming market-implied probability on 32°C as the precise peak. Realistic challenges include minor forecast revisions from afternoon cloud buildup, localized sea-breeze effects, or slight measurement variations at official stations that could shift the recorded high to 31°C or 33°C.