Latest National Weather Service and private forecast models converge on a Chicago high near 80–82°F for August 15, aligning with the market’s leading 80–81°F (35%) and 82–83°F (28%) bins. A moderating lake breeze off Lake Michigan, typical seasonal cooling after mid-August peaks, and lingering effects from recent scattered showers and increased cloud cover are the main factors capping upside potential. Historical normals place the date near 83°F, but current guidance reflects slightly below-average warmth amid variable upper-level flow. Traders weigh model consensus against the narrow uncertainty range in 24-hour temperature forecasts, with final NWS updates and real-time observations expected to refine probabilities before resolution.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket. Isto não é aconselhamento de trading e não tem qualquer papel na resolução deste mercado. · AtualizadoTemperatura mais alta em Chicago em 15 de agosto?
Temperatura mais alta em Chicago em 15 de agosto?
80-81°F 36%
82-83°F 28%
78-79°F 16%
84-85°F 11%
NOVO
NOVO
15 ago 2026
75°F ou menos
1%
76-77°F
4%
78-79°F
16%
80-81°F
36%
82-83°F
28%
84-85°F
11%
30-31°C
2%
88-89°F
1%
32-32,7°C
<1%
92-93°F
<1%
94°F ou mais
<1%
80-81°F 36%
82-83°F 28%
78-79°F 16%
84-85°F 11%
NOVO
NOVO
15 ago 2026
75°F ou menos
$490 Vol.
1%
76-77°F
$523 Vol.
4%
78-79°F
$6 Vol.
16%
80-81°F
$147 Vol.
36%
82-83°F
$141 Vol.
28%
84-85°F
$65 Vol.
11%
30-31°C
$293 Vol.
2%
88-89°F
$354 Vol.
1%
32-32,7°C
$111 Vol.
<1%
92-93°F
$153 Vol.
<1%
94°F ou mais
$158 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Chicago O'Hare Intl Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 15 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Chicago O'Hare Intl Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/il/chicago/KORD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Latest National Weather Service and private forecast models converge on a Chicago high near 80–82°F for August 15, aligning with the market’s leading 80–81°F (35%) and 82–83°F (28%) bins. A moderating lake breeze off Lake Michigan, typical seasonal cooling after mid-August peaks, and lingering effects from recent scattered showers and increased cloud cover are the main factors capping upside potential. Historical normals place the date near 83°F, but current guidance reflects slightly below-average warmth amid variable upper-level flow. Traders weigh model consensus against the narrow uncertainty range in 24-hour temperature forecasts, with final NWS updates and real-time observations expected to refine probabilities before resolution.
This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Chicago O'Hare Intl Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 15 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Chicago O'Hare Intl Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/il/chicago/KORD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Chicago O'Hare Intl Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 15 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Chicago O'Hare Intl Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/il/chicago/KORD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Mercado Aberto: Aug 13, 2026, 8:56 PM ET
Volume
$2,441Data de Término
15 ago 2026Mercado Aberto
Aug 13, 2026, 8:56 PM ETFonte de resolução
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/il/chicago/KORDResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Chicago O'Hare Intl Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 15 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Chicago O'Hare Intl Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/il/chicago/KORD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Latest National Weather Service and private forecast models converge on a Chicago high near 80–82°F for August 15, aligning with the market’s leading 80–81°F (35%) and 82–83°F (28%) bins. A moderating lake breeze off Lake Michigan, typical seasonal cooling after mid-August peaks, and lingering effects from recent scattered showers and increased cloud cover are the main factors capping upside potential. Historical normals place the date near 83°F, but current guidance reflects slightly below-average warmth amid variable upper-level flow. Traders weigh model consensus against the narrow uncertainty range in 24-hour temperature forecasts, with final NWS updates and real-time observations expected to refine probabilities before resolution.
This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Chicago O'Hare Intl Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 15 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Chicago O'Hare Intl Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/il/chicago/KORD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Chicago O'Hare Intl Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 15 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Chicago O'Hare Intl Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/il/chicago/KORD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$2,441Data de Término
15 ago 2026Mercado Aberto
Aug 13, 2026, 8:56 PM ETFonte de resolução
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/il/chicago/KORDResolver
0x69c47De9D...Latest National Weather Service and private forecast models converge on a Chicago high near 80–82°F for August 15, aligning with the market’s leading 80–81°F (35%) and 82–83°F (28%) bins. A moderating lake breeze off Lake Michigan, typical seasonal cooling after mid-August peaks, and lingering effects from recent scattered showers and increased cloud cover are the main factors capping upside potential. Historical normals place the date near 83°F, but current guidance reflects slightly below-average warmth amid variable upper-level flow. Traders weigh model consensus against the narrow uncertainty range in 24-hour temperature forecasts, with final NWS updates and real-time observations expected to refine probabilities before resolution.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket. Isto não é aconselhamento de trading e não tem qualquer papel na resolução deste mercado. · Atualizado
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