Forecast models from the Met Office indicate London highs near 22–24°C on June 13, aligning with the tightly bunched market-implied odds for those exact outcomes. Following an exceptional May heatwave that produced record temperatures above 34°C, a shift to more typical early-summer conditions has cooled expectations, with guidance showing modest diurnal warming under variable cloud and light winds. Key differentiating factors include the precise strength of any Atlantic front, boundary-layer mixing, and urban heat-island effects at official stations, all of which can swing the daily maximum by 1–2°C. Updated model runs and observational data over the next 48 hours will refine these narrow probabilities.