Traders assign the highest implied probability (59%) to a 28°C daily maximum in Manila on August 5 because active southwest monsoon conditions, reinforced by recent low-pressure areas and lingering moisture from Tropical Cyclone influences, are expected to increase cloud cover and scattered showers that limit daytime heating. Official PAGASA guidance projects a range of 25–31°C with 40% rain chances, yet model consensus and historical analogs for monsoon-affected August days in Metro Manila point to highs settling near 28–30°C rather than reaching the seasonal 31°C average. Recent observational data showing persistent humidity above 80% and reduced solar insolation further support this clustering, with only slim odds assigned to 31°C or above amid the wet pattern. Updated PAGASA briefings and next-model runs will provide the clearest near-term signals for resolution.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket. Isto não é aconselhamento de trading e não tem qualquer papel na resolução deste mercado. · AtualizadoTemperatura mais alta em Manila no dia 5 de agosto?
Temperatura mais alta em Manila no dia 5 de agosto?
28°C 71%
30°C 22%
29°C 21%
31°C 1.3%
NOVO
$16,572 Vol.
NOVO
$16,572 Vol.
5 ago 2026
22°C ou menos
<1%
23°C
<1%
24°C
<1%
25°C
<1%
26°C
<1%
27°C
<1%
28°C
62%
29°C
21%
30°C
18%
31°C
1%
32°C ou mais
<1%
28°C 71%
30°C 22%
29°C 21%
31°C 1.3%
NOVO
$16,572 Vol.
NOVO
$16,572 Vol.
5 ago 2026
22°C ou menos
$938 Vol.
<1%
23°C
$267 Vol.
<1%
24°C
$434 Vol.
<1%
25°C
$440 Vol.
<1%
26°C
$1,625 Vol.
<1%
27°C
$1,596 Vol.
<1%
28°C
$2,053 Vol.
62%
29°C
$3,536 Vol.
21%
30°C
$2,177 Vol.
18%
31°C
$2,094 Vol.
1%
32°C ou mais
$1,413 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Ninoy Aquino International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 5 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Ninoy Aquino International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/ph/manila/RPLL.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Traders assign the highest implied probability (59%) to a 28°C daily maximum in Manila on August 5 because active southwest monsoon conditions, reinforced by recent low-pressure areas and lingering moisture from Tropical Cyclone influences, are expected to increase cloud cover and scattered showers that limit daytime heating. Official PAGASA guidance projects a range of 25–31°C with 40% rain chances, yet model consensus and historical analogs for monsoon-affected August days in Metro Manila point to highs settling near 28–30°C rather than reaching the seasonal 31°C average. Recent observational data showing persistent humidity above 80% and reduced solar insolation further support this clustering, with only slim odds assigned to 31°C or above amid the wet pattern. Updated PAGASA briefings and next-model runs will provide the clearest near-term signals for resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Ninoy Aquino International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 5 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Ninoy Aquino International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/ph/manila/RPLL.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Ninoy Aquino International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/ph/manila/RPLL.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Mercado Aberto: Aug 3, 2026, 12:09 AM ET
Volume
$16,572Data de Término
5 ago 2026Mercado Aberto
Aug 3, 2026, 12:09 AM ETFonte de resolução
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/ph/manila/RPLLResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Ninoy Aquino International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 5 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Ninoy Aquino International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/ph/manila/RPLL.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Traders assign the highest implied probability (59%) to a 28°C daily maximum in Manila on August 5 because active southwest monsoon conditions, reinforced by recent low-pressure areas and lingering moisture from Tropical Cyclone influences, are expected to increase cloud cover and scattered showers that limit daytime heating. Official PAGASA guidance projects a range of 25–31°C with 40% rain chances, yet model consensus and historical analogs for monsoon-affected August days in Metro Manila point to highs settling near 28–30°C rather than reaching the seasonal 31°C average. Recent observational data showing persistent humidity above 80% and reduced solar insolation further support this clustering, with only slim odds assigned to 31°C or above amid the wet pattern. Updated PAGASA briefings and next-model runs will provide the clearest near-term signals for resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Ninoy Aquino International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 5 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Ninoy Aquino International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/ph/manila/RPLL.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Ninoy Aquino International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/ph/manila/RPLL.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$16,572Data de Término
5 ago 2026Mercado Aberto
Aug 3, 2026, 12:09 AM ETFonte de resolução
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/ph/manila/RPLLResolver
0x69c47De9D...Traders assign the highest implied probability (59%) to a 28°C daily maximum in Manila on August 5 because active southwest monsoon conditions, reinforced by recent low-pressure areas and lingering moisture from Tropical Cyclone influences, are expected to increase cloud cover and scattered showers that limit daytime heating. Official PAGASA guidance projects a range of 25–31°C with 40% rain chances, yet model consensus and historical analogs for monsoon-affected August days in Metro Manila point to highs settling near 28–30°C rather than reaching the seasonal 31°C average. Recent observational data showing persistent humidity above 80% and reduced solar insolation further support this clustering, with only slim odds assigned to 31°C or above amid the wet pattern. Updated PAGASA briefings and next-model runs will provide the clearest near-term signals for resolution.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket. Isto não é aconselhamento de trading e não tem qualquer papel na resolução deste mercado. · Atualizado
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Cuidado com os links externos.
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