Recent global seismicity data from the USGS indicate roughly one magnitude 6.5+ earthquake occurs worldwide every eight days on average, producing a weekly expectation near one event amid natural Poisson variability. Trader consensus favoring zero or one quake during August 31–September 6 aligns with this baseline rate, 2026’s slightly below-average tally of 26 such events through late August, and the absence of active aftershock sequences or elevated background rates in major subduction zones. Short-term forecasts remain limited by the lack of reliable precursors, with resolution hinging on precise magnitude thresholds and global catalog completeness.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket. Isto não é aconselhamento de trading e não tem qualquer papel na resolução deste mercado. · AtualizadoQuantos terremotos de 6,5 ou mais ocorreram em todo o mundo entre 31 de agosto e 6 de setembro?
Quantos terremotos de 6,5 ou mais ocorreram em todo o mundo entre 31 de agosto e 6 de setembro?
0 44%
1 35%
2 16%
3 7%
NOVO
NOVO
7 set 2026
0
44%
1
35%
2
16%
3
7%
4
2%
5
<1%
mais de 5
1%
0 44%
1 35%
2 16%
3 7%
NOVO
NOVO
7 set 2026
0
$748 Vol.
44%
1
$120 Vol.
35%
2
$35 Vol.
16%
3
$17 Vol.
7%
4
$32 Vol.
2%
5
$144 Vol.
<1%
mais de 5
$22 Vol.
1%
This market will resolve according to the total number of earthquakes with a magnitude of 6.5 or higher that occur anywhere on Earth between August 31, 2026, 12:00 AM ET and September 6, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program, with the minimum magnitude set to 6.5 and the date parameters set to the relevant dates for this market's timeframe (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/search/).
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until 48 hours after the market's closing time, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that time, another credible resolution source will be used.
This market may not resolve until the timeframe of this market has concluded. If a qualifying earthquake has been recorded on the final day, this market may remain open for 24 hours to allow for revisions to the recorded magnitude. After 24 hours, this market will resolve according to the latest provided data.Recent global seismicity data from the USGS indicate roughly one magnitude 6.5+ earthquake occurs worldwide every eight days on average, producing a weekly expectation near one event amid natural Poisson variability. Trader consensus favoring zero or one quake during August 31–September 6 aligns with this baseline rate, 2026’s slightly below-average tally of 26 such events through late August, and the absence of active aftershock sequences or elevated background rates in major subduction zones. Short-term forecasts remain limited by the lack of reliable precursors, with resolution hinging on precise magnitude thresholds and global catalog completeness.
This market will resolve according to the total number of earthquakes with a magnitude of 6.5 or higher that occur anywhere on Earth between August 31, 2026, 12:00 AM ET and September 6, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program, with the minimum magnitude set to 6.5 and the date parameters set to the relevant dates for this market's timeframe (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/search/).
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until 48 hours after the market's closing time, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that time, another credible resolution source will be used.
This market may not resolve until the timeframe of this market has concluded. If a qualifying earthquake has been recorded on the final day, this market may remain open for 24 hours to allow for revisions to the recorded magnitude. After 24 hours, this market will resolve according to the latest provided data.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program, with the minimum magnitude set to 6.5 and the date parameters set to the relevant dates for this market's timeframe (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/search/).
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until 48 hours after the market's closing time, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that time, another credible resolution source will be used.
This market may not resolve until the timeframe of this market has concluded. If a qualifying earthquake has been recorded on the final day, this market may remain open for 24 hours to allow for revisions to the recorded magnitude. After 24 hours, this market will resolve according to the latest provided data.
Mercado Aberto: Aug 28, 2026, 11:01 AM ET
Volume
$1,118Data de Término
7 set 2026Mercado Aberto
Aug 28, 2026, 11:01 AM ETFonte de resolução
https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/search/Resolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the total number of earthquakes with a magnitude of 6.5 or higher that occur anywhere on Earth between August 31, 2026, 12:00 AM ET and September 6, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program, with the minimum magnitude set to 6.5 and the date parameters set to the relevant dates for this market's timeframe (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/search/).
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until 48 hours after the market's closing time, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that time, another credible resolution source will be used.
This market may not resolve until the timeframe of this market has concluded. If a qualifying earthquake has been recorded on the final day, this market may remain open for 24 hours to allow for revisions to the recorded magnitude. After 24 hours, this market will resolve according to the latest provided data.Recent global seismicity data from the USGS indicate roughly one magnitude 6.5+ earthquake occurs worldwide every eight days on average, producing a weekly expectation near one event amid natural Poisson variability. Trader consensus favoring zero or one quake during August 31–September 6 aligns with this baseline rate, 2026’s slightly below-average tally of 26 such events through late August, and the absence of active aftershock sequences or elevated background rates in major subduction zones. Short-term forecasts remain limited by the lack of reliable precursors, with resolution hinging on precise magnitude thresholds and global catalog completeness.
This market will resolve according to the total number of earthquakes with a magnitude of 6.5 or higher that occur anywhere on Earth between August 31, 2026, 12:00 AM ET and September 6, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program, with the minimum magnitude set to 6.5 and the date parameters set to the relevant dates for this market's timeframe (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/search/).
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until 48 hours after the market's closing time, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that time, another credible resolution source will be used.
This market may not resolve until the timeframe of this market has concluded. If a qualifying earthquake has been recorded on the final day, this market may remain open for 24 hours to allow for revisions to the recorded magnitude. After 24 hours, this market will resolve according to the latest provided data.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program, with the minimum magnitude set to 6.5 and the date parameters set to the relevant dates for this market's timeframe (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/search/).
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until 48 hours after the market's closing time, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that time, another credible resolution source will be used.
This market may not resolve until the timeframe of this market has concluded. If a qualifying earthquake has been recorded on the final day, this market may remain open for 24 hours to allow for revisions to the recorded magnitude. After 24 hours, this market will resolve according to the latest provided data.
Volume
$1,118Data de Término
7 set 2026Mercado Aberto
Aug 28, 2026, 11:01 AM ETFonte de resolução
https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/search/Resolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent global seismicity data from the USGS indicate roughly one magnitude 6.5+ earthquake occurs worldwide every eight days on average, producing a weekly expectation near one event amid natural Poisson variability. Trader consensus favoring zero or one quake during August 31–September 6 aligns with this baseline rate, 2026’s slightly below-average tally of 26 such events through late August, and the absence of active aftershock sequences or elevated background rates in major subduction zones. Short-term forecasts remain limited by the lack of reliable precursors, with resolution hinging on precise magnitude thresholds and global catalog completeness.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket. Isto não é aconselhamento de trading e não tem qualquer papel na resolução deste mercado. · Atualizado
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