Official forecasts from the Japan Meteorological Agency and Joint Typhoon Warning Center highlight a highly favorable environment for rapid intensification, with warm ocean waters, high ocean heat content, and reduced vertical wind shear supporting strengthening from the current 45-knot tropical storm stage. Model consensus projects peak intensity near 80-120 knots around August 23 near the Ogasawara Islands before gradual weakening, aligning with the market's leading 52% implied probability for Very Strong Typhoon. Recent satellite imagery and track updates confirm consolidation and a northwestward path under subtropical ridge steering, while intensity guidance shows broad agreement on the near-term rapid intensification phase. Traders appear to weigh this consensus heavily against track uncertainty and potential eyewall replacement cycles later in the forecast window.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket. Isto não é aconselhamento de trading e não tem qualquer papel na resolução deste mercado. · AtualizadoQuão forte será a tempestade tropical Saudel?
Quão forte será a tempestade tropical Saudel?
Tufão Muito Forte 52%
Tufão 24%
Tufão Violento 22%
Tempestade Tropical Severa 6%
NOVO
NOVO
31 ago 2026
Tempestade Tropical
4%
Tempestade Tropical Severa
6%
Tufão
24%
Tufão Muito Forte
52%
Tufão Violento
22%
Tufão Muito Forte 52%
Tufão 24%
Tufão Violento 22%
Tempestade Tropical Severa 6%
NOVO
NOVO
31 ago 2026
Tempestade Tropical
$343 Vol.
4%
Tempestade Tropical Severa
$19 Vol.
6%
Tufão
$49 Vol.
24%
Tufão Muito Forte
$35 Vol.
52%
Tufão Violento
$155 Vol.
22%
This market resolves based on the maximum intensity that Tropical Storm Saudel (JMA designation T2618) reaches at any point on or before 11:59 PM ET on August 31, 2026, using the Japan Meteorological Agency's (JMA) advisories (https://www.jma.go.jp/bosai/map.html#contents=typhoon&lang=en).
Resolution is by wind speed: take the highest 10-minute maximum sustained wind speed JMA reports for Saudel in any single advisory during its lifetime, and the market for the one category whose range contains that value resolves "Yes." The categories are defined solely by these inclusive knot ranges: Tropical Storm (34-47 kt), Severe Tropical Storm (48-63 kt), Typhoon (64-84 kt), Very Strong Typhoon (85-104 kt), and Violent Typhoon (105 kt or higher). These names label the wind-speed ranges; JMA's own strength wording need not appear in an advisory for a category to resolve. The peak must occur on or before the deadline, though the confirming JMA data may be published later.
Saudel is already a tropical storm, so its peak is at least "Tropical Storm". The wind speed in JMA's issued advisories is final and is not changed by any later reclassification or post-season best-track reanalysis. Where JMA advisory data is disputed, the values recorded by the Digital Typhoon database (National Institute of Informatics, Japan) for Typhoon 202618 (SAUDEL) are treated as conclusive evidence of what JMA reported. JMA is the primary and default resolution source.Official forecasts from the Japan Meteorological Agency and Joint Typhoon Warning Center highlight a highly favorable environment for rapid intensification, with warm ocean waters, high ocean heat content, and reduced vertical wind shear supporting strengthening from the current 45-knot tropical storm stage. Model consensus projects peak intensity near 80-120 knots around August 23 near the Ogasawara Islands before gradual weakening, aligning with the market's leading 52% implied probability for Very Strong Typhoon. Recent satellite imagery and track updates confirm consolidation and a northwestward path under subtropical ridge steering, while intensity guidance shows broad agreement on the near-term rapid intensification phase. Traders appear to weigh this consensus heavily against track uncertainty and potential eyewall replacement cycles later in the forecast window.
This market resolves based on the maximum intensity that Tropical Storm Saudel (JMA designation T2618) reaches at any point on or before 11:59 PM ET on August 31, 2026, using the Japan Meteorological Agency's (JMA) advisories (https://www.jma.go.jp/bosai/map.html#contents=typhoon&lang=en).
Resolution is by wind speed: take the highest 10-minute maximum sustained wind speed JMA reports for Saudel in any single advisory during its lifetime, and the market for the one category whose range contains that value resolves "Yes." The categories are defined solely by these inclusive knot ranges: Tropical Storm (34-47 kt), Severe Tropical Storm (48-63 kt), Typhoon (64-84 kt), Very Strong Typhoon (85-104 kt), and Violent Typhoon (105 kt or higher). These names label the wind-speed ranges; JMA's own strength wording need not appear in an advisory for a category to resolve. The peak must occur on or before the deadline, though the confirming JMA data may be published later.
Saudel is already a tropical storm, so its peak is at least "Tropical Storm". The wind speed in JMA's issued advisories is final and is not changed by any later reclassification or post-season best-track reanalysis. Where JMA advisory data is disputed, the values recorded by the Digital Typhoon database (National Institute of Informatics, Japan) for Typhoon 202618 (SAUDEL) are treated as conclusive evidence of what JMA reported. JMA is the primary and default resolution source.
Resolution is by wind speed: take the highest 10-minute maximum sustained wind speed JMA reports for Saudel in any single advisory during its lifetime, and the market for the one category whose range contains that value resolves "Yes." The categories are defined solely by these inclusive knot ranges: Tropical Storm (34-47 kt), Severe Tropical Storm (48-63 kt), Typhoon (64-84 kt), Very Strong Typhoon (85-104 kt), and Violent Typhoon (105 kt or higher). These names label the wind-speed ranges; JMA's own strength wording need not appear in an advisory for a category to resolve. The peak must occur on or before the deadline, though the confirming JMA data may be published later.
Saudel is already a tropical storm, so its peak is at least "Tropical Storm". The wind speed in JMA's issued advisories is final and is not changed by any later reclassification or post-season best-track reanalysis. Where JMA advisory data is disputed, the values recorded by the Digital Typhoon database (National Institute of Informatics, Japan) for Typhoon 202618 (SAUDEL) are treated as conclusive evidence of what JMA reported. JMA is the primary and default resolution source.
Mercado Aberto: Aug 20, 2026, 11:11 AM ET
Volume
$601Data de Término
1 set 2026Mercado Aberto
Aug 20, 2026, 11:11 AM ETFonte de resolução
https://www.jma.go.jp/bosai/map.html#contents=typhoon&lang=enResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market resolves based on the maximum intensity that Tropical Storm Saudel (JMA designation T2618) reaches at any point on or before 11:59 PM ET on August 31, 2026, using the Japan Meteorological Agency's (JMA) advisories (https://www.jma.go.jp/bosai/map.html#contents=typhoon&lang=en).
Resolution is by wind speed: take the highest 10-minute maximum sustained wind speed JMA reports for Saudel in any single advisory during its lifetime, and the market for the one category whose range contains that value resolves "Yes." The categories are defined solely by these inclusive knot ranges: Tropical Storm (34-47 kt), Severe Tropical Storm (48-63 kt), Typhoon (64-84 kt), Very Strong Typhoon (85-104 kt), and Violent Typhoon (105 kt or higher). These names label the wind-speed ranges; JMA's own strength wording need not appear in an advisory for a category to resolve. The peak must occur on or before the deadline, though the confirming JMA data may be published later.
Saudel is already a tropical storm, so its peak is at least "Tropical Storm". The wind speed in JMA's issued advisories is final and is not changed by any later reclassification or post-season best-track reanalysis. Where JMA advisory data is disputed, the values recorded by the Digital Typhoon database (National Institute of Informatics, Japan) for Typhoon 202618 (SAUDEL) are treated as conclusive evidence of what JMA reported. JMA is the primary and default resolution source.Official forecasts from the Japan Meteorological Agency and Joint Typhoon Warning Center highlight a highly favorable environment for rapid intensification, with warm ocean waters, high ocean heat content, and reduced vertical wind shear supporting strengthening from the current 45-knot tropical storm stage. Model consensus projects peak intensity near 80-120 knots around August 23 near the Ogasawara Islands before gradual weakening, aligning with the market's leading 52% implied probability for Very Strong Typhoon. Recent satellite imagery and track updates confirm consolidation and a northwestward path under subtropical ridge steering, while intensity guidance shows broad agreement on the near-term rapid intensification phase. Traders appear to weigh this consensus heavily against track uncertainty and potential eyewall replacement cycles later in the forecast window.
This market resolves based on the maximum intensity that Tropical Storm Saudel (JMA designation T2618) reaches at any point on or before 11:59 PM ET on August 31, 2026, using the Japan Meteorological Agency's (JMA) advisories (https://www.jma.go.jp/bosai/map.html#contents=typhoon&lang=en).
Resolution is by wind speed: take the highest 10-minute maximum sustained wind speed JMA reports for Saudel in any single advisory during its lifetime, and the market for the one category whose range contains that value resolves "Yes." The categories are defined solely by these inclusive knot ranges: Tropical Storm (34-47 kt), Severe Tropical Storm (48-63 kt), Typhoon (64-84 kt), Very Strong Typhoon (85-104 kt), and Violent Typhoon (105 kt or higher). These names label the wind-speed ranges; JMA's own strength wording need not appear in an advisory for a category to resolve. The peak must occur on or before the deadline, though the confirming JMA data may be published later.
Saudel is already a tropical storm, so its peak is at least "Tropical Storm". The wind speed in JMA's issued advisories is final and is not changed by any later reclassification or post-season best-track reanalysis. Where JMA advisory data is disputed, the values recorded by the Digital Typhoon database (National Institute of Informatics, Japan) for Typhoon 202618 (SAUDEL) are treated as conclusive evidence of what JMA reported. JMA is the primary and default resolution source.
Resolution is by wind speed: take the highest 10-minute maximum sustained wind speed JMA reports for Saudel in any single advisory during its lifetime, and the market for the one category whose range contains that value resolves "Yes." The categories are defined solely by these inclusive knot ranges: Tropical Storm (34-47 kt), Severe Tropical Storm (48-63 kt), Typhoon (64-84 kt), Very Strong Typhoon (85-104 kt), and Violent Typhoon (105 kt or higher). These names label the wind-speed ranges; JMA's own strength wording need not appear in an advisory for a category to resolve. The peak must occur on or before the deadline, though the confirming JMA data may be published later.
Saudel is already a tropical storm, so its peak is at least "Tropical Storm". The wind speed in JMA's issued advisories is final and is not changed by any later reclassification or post-season best-track reanalysis. Where JMA advisory data is disputed, the values recorded by the Digital Typhoon database (National Institute of Informatics, Japan) for Typhoon 202618 (SAUDEL) are treated as conclusive evidence of what JMA reported. JMA is the primary and default resolution source.
Volume
$601Data de Término
1 set 2026Mercado Aberto
Aug 20, 2026, 11:11 AM ETFonte de resolução
https://www.jma.go.jp/bosai/map.html#contents=typhoon&lang=enResolver
0x69c47De9D...Official forecasts from the Japan Meteorological Agency and Joint Typhoon Warning Center highlight a highly favorable environment for rapid intensification, with warm ocean waters, high ocean heat content, and reduced vertical wind shear supporting strengthening from the current 45-knot tropical storm stage. Model consensus projects peak intensity near 80-120 knots around August 23 near the Ogasawara Islands before gradual weakening, aligning with the market's leading 52% implied probability for Very Strong Typhoon. Recent satellite imagery and track updates confirm consolidation and a northwestward path under subtropical ridge steering, while intensity guidance shows broad agreement on the near-term rapid intensification phase. Traders appear to weigh this consensus heavily against track uncertainty and potential eyewall replacement cycles later in the forecast window.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket. Isto não é aconselhamento de trading e não tem qualquer papel na resolução deste mercado. · Atualizado
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