**The dominant 99.8% market-implied probability for a 25°C low on September 3, 2026, aligns directly with Hong Kong Observatory forecasts projecting a daily minimum range of 26–31°C under northwest winds of 4–5, with partly cloudy skies and only isolated showers.** Multiple independent models, including WeatherBug and Weathertab projections, consistently indicate overnight lows near 25–26°C (77–78°F), consistent with early-morning station readings around 26°C and typical early-September climatology for the region amid weakening tropical cyclone influences and monsoon flows. This skin-in-the-game consensus reflects high confidence in stable atmospheric conditions without rapid cooling. A realistic challenge would require unexpected intensification or repositioning of residual cyclone activity (such as from Saola’s remnants) or localized measurement variance across official stations that pushes the verified minimum below the 25°C threshold, though current model agreement makes such shifts improbable before resolution.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket. Isto não é aconselhamento de trading e não tem qualquer papel na resolução deste mercado. · AtualizadoTemperatura mais baixa em Hong Kong no dia 3 de setembro?
Temperatura mais baixa em Hong Kong no dia 3 de setembro?
25°C 99.8%
21°C <1%
23°C <1%
24°C <1%
$20,494 Vol.
$20,494 Vol.
3 set 2026
20°C or below
<1%
21°C
1%
22°C
<1%
23°C
1%
24°C
<1%
25°C
100%
26°C
<1%
27°C
<1%
28°C
<1%
29°C
<1%
30°C or higher
<1%
25°C 99.8%
21°C <1%
23°C <1%
24°C <1%
$20,494 Vol.
$20,494 Vol.
3 set 2026
20°C or below
$474 Vol.
<1%
21°C
$463 Vol.
1%
22°C
$787 Vol.
<1%
23°C
$1,539 Vol.
1%
24°C
$1,998 Vol.
<1%
25°C
$3,902 Vol.
100%
26°C
$6,096 Vol.
<1%
27°C
$2,322 Vol.
<1%
28°C
$1,396 Vol.
<1%
29°C
$1,047 Vol.
<1%
30°C or higher
$470 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by the Hong Kong Observatory in degrees Celsius on 3 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from the Hong Kong Observatory, specifically the "Absolute Daily Min (deg. C)" the specified date once information is finalized in the relevant "Daily Extract", available here: https://www.weather.gov.hk/en/cis/climat.htm
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
This market will resolve once data for this date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures in Celsius to one decimal place (eg, 9.1°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is initially published for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.**The dominant 99.8% market-implied probability for a 25°C low on September 3, 2026, aligns directly with Hong Kong Observatory forecasts projecting a daily minimum range of 26–31°C under northwest winds of 4–5, with partly cloudy skies and only isolated showers.** Multiple independent models, including WeatherBug and Weathertab projections, consistently indicate overnight lows near 25–26°C (77–78°F), consistent with early-morning station readings around 26°C and typical early-September climatology for the region amid weakening tropical cyclone influences and monsoon flows. This skin-in-the-game consensus reflects high confidence in stable atmospheric conditions without rapid cooling. A realistic challenge would require unexpected intensification or repositioning of residual cyclone activity (such as from Saola’s remnants) or localized measurement variance across official stations that pushes the verified minimum below the 25°C threshold, though current model agreement makes such shifts improbable before resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by the Hong Kong Observatory in degrees Celsius on 3 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from the Hong Kong Observatory, specifically the "Absolute Daily Min (deg. C)" the specified date once information is finalized in the relevant "Daily Extract", available here: https://www.weather.gov.hk/en/cis/climat.htm
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
This market will resolve once data for this date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures in Celsius to one decimal place (eg, 9.1°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is initially published for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from the Hong Kong Observatory, specifically the "Absolute Daily Min (deg. C)" the specified date once information is finalized in the relevant "Daily Extract", available here: https://www.weather.gov.hk/en/cis/climat.htm
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
This market will resolve once data for this date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures in Celsius to one decimal place (eg, 9.1°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is initially published for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Mercado Aberto: Sep 1, 2026, 12:29 AM ET
Volume
$20,494Data de Término
3 set 2026Mercado Aberto
Sep 1, 2026, 12:29 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by the Hong Kong Observatory in degrees Celsius on 3 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from the Hong Kong Observatory, specifically the "Absolute Daily Min (deg. C)" the specified date once information is finalized in the relevant "Daily Extract", available here: https://www.weather.gov.hk/en/cis/climat.htm
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
This market will resolve once data for this date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures in Celsius to one decimal place (eg, 9.1°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is initially published for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.**The dominant 99.8% market-implied probability for a 25°C low on September 3, 2026, aligns directly with Hong Kong Observatory forecasts projecting a daily minimum range of 26–31°C under northwest winds of 4–5, with partly cloudy skies and only isolated showers.** Multiple independent models, including WeatherBug and Weathertab projections, consistently indicate overnight lows near 25–26°C (77–78°F), consistent with early-morning station readings around 26°C and typical early-September climatology for the region amid weakening tropical cyclone influences and monsoon flows. This skin-in-the-game consensus reflects high confidence in stable atmospheric conditions without rapid cooling. A realistic challenge would require unexpected intensification or repositioning of residual cyclone activity (such as from Saola’s remnants) or localized measurement variance across official stations that pushes the verified minimum below the 25°C threshold, though current model agreement makes such shifts improbable before resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by the Hong Kong Observatory in degrees Celsius on 3 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from the Hong Kong Observatory, specifically the "Absolute Daily Min (deg. C)" the specified date once information is finalized in the relevant "Daily Extract", available here: https://www.weather.gov.hk/en/cis/climat.htm
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
This market will resolve once data for this date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures in Celsius to one decimal place (eg, 9.1°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is initially published for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from the Hong Kong Observatory, specifically the "Absolute Daily Min (deg. C)" the specified date once information is finalized in the relevant "Daily Extract", available here: https://www.weather.gov.hk/en/cis/climat.htm
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
This market will resolve once data for this date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures in Celsius to one decimal place (eg, 9.1°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is initially published for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Volume
$20,494Data de Término
3 set 2026Mercado Aberto
Sep 1, 2026, 12:29 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...**The dominant 99.8% market-implied probability for a 25°C low on September 3, 2026, aligns directly with Hong Kong Observatory forecasts projecting a daily minimum range of 26–31°C under northwest winds of 4–5, with partly cloudy skies and only isolated showers.** Multiple independent models, including WeatherBug and Weathertab projections, consistently indicate overnight lows near 25–26°C (77–78°F), consistent with early-morning station readings around 26°C and typical early-September climatology for the region amid weakening tropical cyclone influences and monsoon flows. This skin-in-the-game consensus reflects high confidence in stable atmospheric conditions without rapid cooling. A realistic challenge would require unexpected intensification or repositioning of residual cyclone activity (such as from Saola’s remnants) or localized measurement variance across official stations that pushes the verified minimum below the 25°C threshold, though current model agreement makes such shifts improbable before resolution.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket. Isto não é aconselhamento de trading e não tem qualquer papel na resolução deste mercado. · Atualizado
Cuidado com os links externos.
Cuidado com os links externos.
Frequently Asked Questions