Recent short-range forecasts from the Met Office and ensemble models have converged on a minimum temperature of 10°C for London on June 11, driving the 95.5% market-implied probability. Following an unusually warm May, high pressure has promoted clearer skies and moderate overnight radiative cooling consistent with early-summer climatology, where average lows sit near 11–13°C. Model guidance shows limited spread around this value, with light winds and minimal cloud expected to allow temperatures to bottom out near that threshold. A modest increase in cloud cover or a shift in steering flow could raise the minimum by 1–2°C, while stronger radiational cooling under perfectly clear, calm conditions remains the main route to an 8–9°C outcome. Updated model runs tonight and official observations tomorrow morning will provide the final resolution data.