Current forecasts from multiple models indicate Shenzhen's overnight low on August 26 will likely settle near 25–27°C amid persistent monsoon cloud cover, scattered thunderstorms, and light southerly winds that limit radiational cooling. These conditions align with seasonal subtropical norms and explain strong market interest in the 26°C and 27°C outcomes. The elevated 42.5% implied probability on 22°C or below appears driven by model spread or potential for heavier overnight rain bands to enhance evaporative cooling, though official guidance shows limited support for such an anomaly. Traders will watch updated NHC and CMA model runs over the next 48 hours for any shifts in steering flow or precipitation intensity that could alter minimum temperatures.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket. Isto não é aconselhamento de trading e não tem qualquer papel na resolução deste mercado. · AtualizadoTemperatura mais baixa em Shenzhen em 26 de agosto?
Temperatura mais baixa em Shenzhen em 26 de agosto?
22°C or below 85%
23°C 48%
24°C 48%
25°C 48%
NOVO
NOVO
26 ago 2026
22°C or below
85%
23°C
48%
24°C
48%
25°C
48%
26°C
27%
27°C
31%
28°C
25%
29°C
25%
30°C
48%
31°C
48%
32°C or higher
1%
22°C or below 85%
23°C 48%
24°C 48%
25°C 48%
NOVO
NOVO
26 ago 2026
22°C or below
$0 Vol.
85%
23°C
$0 Vol.
48%
24°C
$0 Vol.
48%
25°C
$0 Vol.
48%
26°C
$0 Vol.
27%
27°C
$0 Vol.
31%
28°C
$0 Vol.
25%
29°C
$0 Vol.
25%
30°C
$0 Vol.
48%
31°C
$0 Vol.
48%
32°C or higher
$0 Vol.
1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Shenzhen Bao'an International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 26 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zgsz
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Current forecasts from multiple models indicate Shenzhen's overnight low on August 26 will likely settle near 25–27°C amid persistent monsoon cloud cover, scattered thunderstorms, and light southerly winds that limit radiational cooling. These conditions align with seasonal subtropical norms and explain strong market interest in the 26°C and 27°C outcomes. The elevated 42.5% implied probability on 22°C or below appears driven by model spread or potential for heavier overnight rain bands to enhance evaporative cooling, though official guidance shows limited support for such an anomaly. Traders will watch updated NHC and CMA model runs over the next 48 hours for any shifts in steering flow or precipitation intensity that could alter minimum temperatures.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Shenzhen Bao'an International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 26 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zgsz
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zgsz
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Mercado Aberto: Aug 24, 2026, 12:30 AM ET
Volume
$0Data de Término
26 ago 2026Mercado Aberto
Aug 24, 2026, 12:30 AM ETFonte de resolução
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zgszResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Shenzhen Bao'an International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 26 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zgsz
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Current forecasts from multiple models indicate Shenzhen's overnight low on August 26 will likely settle near 25–27°C amid persistent monsoon cloud cover, scattered thunderstorms, and light southerly winds that limit radiational cooling. These conditions align with seasonal subtropical norms and explain strong market interest in the 26°C and 27°C outcomes. The elevated 42.5% implied probability on 22°C or below appears driven by model spread or potential for heavier overnight rain bands to enhance evaporative cooling, though official guidance shows limited support for such an anomaly. Traders will watch updated NHC and CMA model runs over the next 48 hours for any shifts in steering flow or precipitation intensity that could alter minimum temperatures.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Shenzhen Bao'an International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 26 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zgsz
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zgsz
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$0Data de Término
26 ago 2026Mercado Aberto
Aug 24, 2026, 12:30 AM ETFonte de resolução
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zgszResolver
0x69c47De9D...Current forecasts from multiple models indicate Shenzhen's overnight low on August 26 will likely settle near 25–27°C amid persistent monsoon cloud cover, scattered thunderstorms, and light southerly winds that limit radiational cooling. These conditions align with seasonal subtropical norms and explain strong market interest in the 26°C and 27°C outcomes. The elevated 42.5% implied probability on 22°C or below appears driven by model spread or potential for heavier overnight rain bands to enhance evaporative cooling, though official guidance shows limited support for such an anomaly. Traders will watch updated NHC and CMA model runs over the next 48 hours for any shifts in steering flow or precipitation intensity that could alter minimum temperatures.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket. Isto não é aconselhamento de trading e não tem qualquer papel na resolução deste mercado. · Atualizado
Cuidado com os links externos.
Cuidado com os links externos.
Frequently Asked Questions