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Politics·USA Election

M0-02 Republican Primary Winner

icon for M0-02 Republican Primary Winner
Politics·USA Election

M0-02 Republican Primary Winner

Ann Wagner 98.7%

Elizabeth Sparks-Holmes <1%

Peter Pfeifer <1%

Ryan Sheridan <1%

Polymarket
NOVO

Ann Wagner 98.7%

Elizabeth Sparks-Holmes <1%

Peter Pfeifer <1%

Ryan Sheridan <1%

Polymarket
NOVO

Ann Wagner

$4,152 Vol.

99%

Elizabeth Sparks-Holmes

$259 Vol.

1%

Peter Pfeifer

$259 Vol.

1%

Ryan Sheridan

$259 Vol.

1%

Brandon Wilkinson

$259 Vol.

1%

This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the nomination for the Republican Party to contest the MO-02 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The Republican primary will take place on August 4, 2026. If no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Republican sources, including https://www.rnc.org/. Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.Ann Wagner holds a commanding lead in the Missouri 2nd District Republican primary, scheduled for August 4, 2026, reflecting trader consensus on her strong incumbency position since 2013 and the limited profile of challengers such as Peter Pfeifer, Elizabeth Sparks-Holmes, Brandon Wilkinson, and Ryan Sheridan. Primary factors include her consistent electoral record, established donor networks, and the absence of high-profile opposition or recent controversies that might shift voter sentiment in the open primary system. The wisdom of crowds in the market pricing assigns low probability to upsets, consistent with historical patterns for sitting House members facing modest fields. Scenarios that could realistically alter the outcome include late-breaking developments such as unexpected endorsements consolidating behind a single rival, significant polling shifts in the final weeks, or unforeseen personal or legal issues affecting the frontrunner.

This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the nomination for the Republican Party to contest the MO-02 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The Republican primary will take place on August 4, 2026.

If no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".

The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Republican sources, including https://www.rnc.org/.

Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.
Volume
$5,189
Data de Término
4 ago 2026
Mercado Aberto
Jul 6, 2026, 6:06 PM ET

Resolver

0x69c47De9D...
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the nomination for the Republican Party to contest the MO-02 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The Republican primary will take place on August 4, 2026. If no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Republican sources, including https://www.rnc.org/. Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the nomination for the Republican Party to contest the MO-02 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The Republican primary will take place on August 4, 2026. If no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Republican sources, including https://www.rnc.org/. Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.Ann Wagner holds a commanding lead in the Missouri 2nd District Republican primary, scheduled for August 4, 2026, reflecting trader consensus on her strong incumbency position since 2013 and the limited profile of challengers such as Peter Pfeifer, Elizabeth Sparks-Holmes, Brandon Wilkinson, and Ryan Sheridan. Primary factors include her consistent electoral record, established donor networks, and the absence of high-profile opposition or recent controversies that might shift voter sentiment in the open primary system. The wisdom of crowds in the market pricing assigns low probability to upsets, consistent with historical patterns for sitting House members facing modest fields. Scenarios that could realistically alter the outcome include late-breaking developments such as unexpected endorsements consolidating behind a single rival, significant polling shifts in the final weeks, or unforeseen personal or legal issues affecting the frontrunner.

This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the nomination for the Republican Party to contest the MO-02 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The Republican primary will take place on August 4, 2026.

If no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".

The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Republican sources, including https://www.rnc.org/.

Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.
Volume
$5,189
Data de Término
4 ago 2026
Mercado Aberto
Jul 6, 2026, 6:06 PM ET

Resolver

0x69c47De9D...
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the nomination for the Republican Party to contest the MO-02 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The Republican primary will take place on August 4, 2026. If no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Republican sources, including https://www.rnc.org/. Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.

Cuidado com os links externos.

Frequently Asked Questions

"M0-02 Republican Primary Winner" is a prediction market on Polymarket with 5 possible outcomes where traders buy and sell shares based on what they believe will happen. The current leading outcome is "Ann Wagner" at 99%, followed by "Elizabeth Sparks-Holmes" at 1%. Prices reflect real-time crowd-sourced probabilities. For example, a share priced at 99¢ implies that the market collectively assigns a 99% chance to that outcome. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

"M0-02 Republican Primary Winner" is a newly created market on Polymarket, launched on Jul 6, 2026. As an early market, this is your opportunity to be among the first traders to set the odds and establish the market's initial price signals. You can also bookmark this page to track volume and trading activity as the market gains traction over time.

To trade on "M0-02 Republican Primary Winner," browse the 5 available outcomes listed on this page. Each outcome displays a current price representing the market's implied probability. To take a position, select the outcome you believe is most likely, choose "Yes" to trade in favor of it or "No" to trade against it, enter your amount, and click "Trade." If your chosen outcome is correct when the market resolves, your "Yes" shares pay out $1 each. If it's incorrect, they pay out $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

The current frontrunner for "M0-02 Republican Primary Winner" is "Ann Wagner" at 99%, meaning the market assigns a 99% chance to that outcome. The next closest outcome is "Elizabeth Sparks-Holmes" at 1%. These odds update in real-time as traders buy and sell shares, so they reflect the latest collective view of what's most likely to happen. Check back frequently or bookmark this page to follow how the odds shift as new information emerges.

The resolution rules for "M0-02 Republican Primary Winner" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.