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icon for Vencedor da eleição da casa CA-04 (por indivíduo)
Eleições·Eleições Nos EUA

Vencedor da eleição da casa CA-04 (por indivíduo)

icon for Vencedor da eleição da casa CA-04 (por indivíduo)
Eleições·Eleições Nos EUA

Vencedor da eleição da casa CA-04 (por indivíduo)

Polymarket

$11,165 Vol.

Polymarket

$11,165 Vol.

Mike Thompson

$8,346 Vol.

69%

Eric Jones

$2,819 Vol.

23%

This market will resolve according to the individual who wins the CA-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026. This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).**Incumbent Democrat Mike Thompson holds a clear lead in trader pricing for the November general election in California's 4th Congressional District.** The top-two primary on June 2 advanced Thompson (41%) and progressive challenger Eric Jones (22%) over Republican candidates, including Ray Riehle, setting up an intra-party contest in a district rated Solid or Safe Democratic by major forecasters. Thompson benefits from long tenure, strong establishment endorsements, and name recognition across the redrawn district covering Napa, Sonoma, Sacramento suburbs, and rural Northern California counties. Jones, a younger venture capitalist, secured the second spot through late-counted votes from Democratic-leaning areas but trails significantly in implied probability. The solidly Democratic partisan lean and Thompson's incumbency advantage explain the current market positioning ahead of the November 3 vote.

This market will resolve according to the individual who wins the CA-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.

This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).This market will resolve according to the individual who wins the CA-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026. This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Volume
$11,165
Data de Término
4 nov 2026
Mercado Aberto
Jul 6, 2026, 6:04 PM ET

Resolver

0x69c47De9D...
This market will resolve according to the individual who wins the CA-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026. This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).**Incumbent Democrat Mike Thompson holds a clear lead in trader pricing for the November general election in California's 4th Congressional District.** The top-two primary on June 2 advanced Thompson (41%) and progressive challenger Eric Jones (22%) over Republican candidates, including Ray Riehle, setting up an intra-party contest in a district rated Solid or Safe Democratic by major forecasters. Thompson benefits from long tenure, strong establishment endorsements, and name recognition across the redrawn district covering Napa, Sonoma, Sacramento suburbs, and rural Northern California counties. Jones, a younger venture capitalist, secured the second spot through late-counted votes from Democratic-leaning areas but trails significantly in implied probability. The solidly Democratic partisan lean and Thompson's incumbency advantage explain the current market positioning ahead of the November 3 vote.

This market will resolve according to the individual who wins the CA-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.

This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).This market will resolve according to the individual who wins the CA-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026. This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Volume
$11,165
Data de Término
4 nov 2026
Mercado Aberto
Jul 6, 2026, 6:04 PM ET

Resolver

0x69c47De9D...

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Frequently Asked Questions

"Vencedor da eleição da casa CA-04 (por indivíduo)" is a prediction market on Polymarket with 2 possible outcomes where traders buy and sell shares based on what they believe will happen. The current leading outcome is "Mike Thompson" at 69%, followed by "Eric Jones" at 23%. Prices reflect real-time crowd-sourced probabilities. For example, a share priced at 69¢ implies that the market collectively assigns a 69% chance to that outcome. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

As of today, "Vencedor da eleição da casa CA-04 (por indivíduo)" has generated $11.2K in total trading volume since the market launched on Jul 6, 2026. This level of trading activity reflects strong engagement from the Polymarket community and helps ensure that the current odds are informed by a deep pool of market participants. You can track live price movements and trade on any outcome directly on this page.

To trade on "Vencedor da eleição da casa CA-04 (por indivíduo)," browse the 2 available outcomes listed on this page. Each outcome displays a current price representing the market's implied probability. To take a position, select the outcome you believe is most likely, choose "Yes" to trade in favor of it or "No" to trade against it, enter your amount, and click "Trade." If your chosen outcome is correct when the market resolves, your "Yes" shares pay out $1 each. If it's incorrect, they pay out $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

The current frontrunner for "Vencedor da eleição da casa CA-04 (por indivíduo)" is "Mike Thompson" at 69%, meaning the market assigns a 69% chance to that outcome. The next closest outcome is "Eric Jones" at 23%. These odds update in real-time as traders buy and sell shares, so they reflect the latest collective view of what's most likely to happen. Check back frequently or bookmark this page to follow how the odds shift as new information emerges.

The resolution rules for "Vencedor da eleição da casa CA-04 (por indivíduo)" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.