Spider-Man: Brand New Day’s record-breaking $355–360 million domestic opening weekend has set an exceptionally high bar, driving trader consensus toward a sub-$180 million second weekend at 83% implied probability. Typical superhero sequels experience 50–60% drops after massive debuts due to audience front-loading, and this holds despite strong early word-of-mouth, Tom Holland’s star power, and robust global performance that pushed the film past $1 billion worldwide within days. Positive critic and audience scores, alongside limited direct competition this frame, could support better-than-average legs, but historical MCU patterns and the sheer scale of the opening favor steeper declines. This weekend’s actual holds will provide the next key data point for momentum shifts.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket. Isto não é aconselhamento de trading e não tem qualquer papel na resolução deste mercado. · Atualizado"Spider-Man: Brand New Day" 2nd Weekend Box Office
"Spider-Man: Brand New Day" 2nd Weekend Box Office
<180m 84%
180-190 milhões 11%
190-200m 5%
210-220 milhões 3.4%
$16,873 Vol.
$16,873 Vol.
9 ago 2026
<180m
84%
180-190 milhões
11%
190-200m
5%
200-210 milhões
1%
210-220 milhões
3%
220 milhões+
2%
<180m 84%
180-190 milhões 11%
190-200m 5%
210-220 milhões 3.4%
$16,873 Vol.
$16,873 Vol.
9 ago 2026
<180m
$9,745 Vol.
84%
180-190 milhões
$1,037 Vol.
11%
190-200m
$1,319 Vol.
5%
200-210 milhões
$994 Vol.
1%
210-220 milhões
$1,224 Vol.
3%
220 milhões+
$2,554 Vol.
2%
This market will resolve according to how much "Spider-Man: Brand New Day" Weekend Box Office will gross domestically on its second weekend. The "Daily Box Office Performance" figures found on the “Box Office” tab on this movie's The Numbers (https://www.the-numbers.com/) page will be used to resolve this market once the values for the 3-day weekend (August 7 - 9) are final (i.e., not studio estimates).
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
Please note, this market will resolve according to the The Numbers figures provided under Weekend Box Office Performance for the 3-day weekend (which typically includes Thursday's previews), regardless of whether domestic refers to only the USA, or to USA and Canada, etc.
If there is ambiguity as to whether the resolution source's figures are final, this market will remain open until both https://www.boxofficemojo.com/ and https://www.the-numbers.com/ have confirmed their finalized figures.
If there is no final data available by August 14, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source will be chosen.Spider-Man: Brand New Day’s record-breaking $355–360 million domestic opening weekend has set an exceptionally high bar, driving trader consensus toward a sub-$180 million second weekend at 83% implied probability. Typical superhero sequels experience 50–60% drops after massive debuts due to audience front-loading, and this holds despite strong early word-of-mouth, Tom Holland’s star power, and robust global performance that pushed the film past $1 billion worldwide within days. Positive critic and audience scores, alongside limited direct competition this frame, could support better-than-average legs, but historical MCU patterns and the sheer scale of the opening favor steeper declines. This weekend’s actual holds will provide the next key data point for momentum shifts.
This market will resolve according to how much "Spider-Man: Brand New Day" Weekend Box Office will gross domestically on its second weekend. The "Daily Box Office Performance" figures found on the “Box Office” tab on this movie's The Numbers (https://www.the-numbers.com/) page will be used to resolve this market once the values for the 3-day weekend (August 7 - 9) are final (i.e., not studio estimates).
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
Please note, this market will resolve according to the The Numbers figures provided under Weekend Box Office Performance for the 3-day weekend (which typically includes Thursday's previews), regardless of whether domestic refers to only the USA, or to USA and Canada, etc.
If there is ambiguity as to whether the resolution source's figures are final, this market will remain open until both https://www.boxofficemojo.com/ and https://www.the-numbers.com/ have confirmed their finalized figures.
If there is no final data available by August 14, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source will be chosen.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
Please note, this market will resolve according to the The Numbers figures provided under Weekend Box Office Performance for the 3-day weekend (which typically includes Thursday's previews), regardless of whether domestic refers to only the USA, or to USA and Canada, etc.
If there is ambiguity as to whether the resolution source's figures are final, this market will remain open until both https://www.boxofficemojo.com/ and https://www.the-numbers.com/ have confirmed their finalized figures.
If there is no final data available by August 14, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source will be chosen.
Mercado Aberto: Aug 3, 2026, 8:32 PM ET
Volume
$16,873Data de Término
9 ago 2026Mercado Aberto
Aug 3, 2026, 8:32 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to how much "Spider-Man: Brand New Day" Weekend Box Office will gross domestically on its second weekend. The "Daily Box Office Performance" figures found on the “Box Office” tab on this movie's The Numbers (https://www.the-numbers.com/) page will be used to resolve this market once the values for the 3-day weekend (August 7 - 9) are final (i.e., not studio estimates).
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
Please note, this market will resolve according to the The Numbers figures provided under Weekend Box Office Performance for the 3-day weekend (which typically includes Thursday's previews), regardless of whether domestic refers to only the USA, or to USA and Canada, etc.
If there is ambiguity as to whether the resolution source's figures are final, this market will remain open until both https://www.boxofficemojo.com/ and https://www.the-numbers.com/ have confirmed their finalized figures.
If there is no final data available by August 14, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source will be chosen.Spider-Man: Brand New Day’s record-breaking $355–360 million domestic opening weekend has set an exceptionally high bar, driving trader consensus toward a sub-$180 million second weekend at 83% implied probability. Typical superhero sequels experience 50–60% drops after massive debuts due to audience front-loading, and this holds despite strong early word-of-mouth, Tom Holland’s star power, and robust global performance that pushed the film past $1 billion worldwide within days. Positive critic and audience scores, alongside limited direct competition this frame, could support better-than-average legs, but historical MCU patterns and the sheer scale of the opening favor steeper declines. This weekend’s actual holds will provide the next key data point for momentum shifts.
This market will resolve according to how much "Spider-Man: Brand New Day" Weekend Box Office will gross domestically on its second weekend. The "Daily Box Office Performance" figures found on the “Box Office” tab on this movie's The Numbers (https://www.the-numbers.com/) page will be used to resolve this market once the values for the 3-day weekend (August 7 - 9) are final (i.e., not studio estimates).
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
Please note, this market will resolve according to the The Numbers figures provided under Weekend Box Office Performance for the 3-day weekend (which typically includes Thursday's previews), regardless of whether domestic refers to only the USA, or to USA and Canada, etc.
If there is ambiguity as to whether the resolution source's figures are final, this market will remain open until both https://www.boxofficemojo.com/ and https://www.the-numbers.com/ have confirmed their finalized figures.
If there is no final data available by August 14, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source will be chosen.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
Please note, this market will resolve according to the The Numbers figures provided under Weekend Box Office Performance for the 3-day weekend (which typically includes Thursday's previews), regardless of whether domestic refers to only the USA, or to USA and Canada, etc.
If there is ambiguity as to whether the resolution source's figures are final, this market will remain open until both https://www.boxofficemojo.com/ and https://www.the-numbers.com/ have confirmed their finalized figures.
If there is no final data available by August 14, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source will be chosen.
Volume
$16,873Data de Término
9 ago 2026Mercado Aberto
Aug 3, 2026, 8:32 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Spider-Man: Brand New Day’s record-breaking $355–360 million domestic opening weekend has set an exceptionally high bar, driving trader consensus toward a sub-$180 million second weekend at 83% implied probability. Typical superhero sequels experience 50–60% drops after massive debuts due to audience front-loading, and this holds despite strong early word-of-mouth, Tom Holland’s star power, and robust global performance that pushed the film past $1 billion worldwide within days. Positive critic and audience scores, alongside limited direct competition this frame, could support better-than-average legs, but historical MCU patterns and the sheer scale of the opening favor steeper declines. This weekend’s actual holds will provide the next key data point for momentum shifts.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket. Isto não é aconselhamento de trading e não tem qualquer papel na resolução deste mercado. · AtualizadoRelacionado
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Cuidado com os links externos.
Cuidado com os links externos.
Frequently Asked Questions