Persistent US naval blockade of Iranian ports in the Strait of Hormuz, combined with Iranian restrictions including tolls and vessel seizures, has throttled maritime traffic to 12-17 vessels per day—far below the pre-crisis average of 130—sustaining a restricted status for over 70 days amid the broader US-Iran conflict. The US Energy Information Administration's May 12 update, assuming effective closure through late May, alongside deadlocked peace talks and recent naval skirmishes, anchors trader consensus at 99.8% against normalization by May 15. Only an abrupt diplomatic breakthrough, ceasefire agreement, or sudden military de-escalation could alter this trajectory in the remaining two days.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket. Isto não é aconselhamento de trading e não tem qualquer papel na resolução deste mercado. · AtualizadoStrait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by May 15?
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by May 15?
$14,957,248 Vol.
$14,957,248 Vol.
15 mai 2026
$14,957,248 Vol.
$14,957,248 Vol.
15 mai 2026
This market will resolve to “Yes” if IMF Portwatch publishes a 7-day moving average of transit calls (“Arrivals of Ships”) for the Strait of Hormuz equal to or above 60 for any date between market creation and May 15, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Daily transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as IMF Portwatch publishes a 7-day moving average of transit calls equal to or above the specified level, or once data has been published for the final date in the specified period and no such value has been published. If no data has been published for the final date of the specified period within 14 calendar days (ET) after the end of that period, this market will resolve based on data published up to that point.
Revisions to previously published data points made within this market’s timeframe will be considered. However, they will not disqualify a previously published data point from qualifying. Revisions to previously published data points after data is published for May 15, 2026, however, will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.Persistent US naval blockade of Iranian ports in the Strait of Hormuz, combined with Iranian restrictions including tolls and vessel seizures, has throttled maritime traffic to 12-17 vessels per day—far below the pre-crisis average of 130—sustaining a restricted status for over 70 days amid the broader US-Iran conflict. The US Energy Information Administration's May 12 update, assuming effective closure through late May, alongside deadlocked peace talks and recent naval skirmishes, anchors trader consensus at 99.8% against normalization by May 15. Only an abrupt diplomatic breakthrough, ceasefire agreement, or sudden military de-escalation could alter this trajectory in the remaining two days.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if IMF Portwatch publishes a 7-day moving average of transit calls (“Arrivals of Ships”) for the Strait of Hormuz equal to or above 60 for any date between market creation and May 15, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Daily transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as IMF Portwatch publishes a 7-day moving average of transit calls equal to or above the specified level, or once data has been published for the final date in the specified period and no such value has been published. If no data has been published for the final date of the specified period within 14 calendar days (ET) after the end of that period, this market will resolve based on data published up to that point.
Revisions to previously published data points made within this market’s timeframe will be considered. However, they will not disqualify a previously published data point from qualifying. Revisions to previously published data points after data is published for May 15, 2026, however, will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.
Daily transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as IMF Portwatch publishes a 7-day moving average of transit calls equal to or above the specified level, or once data has been published for the final date in the specified period and no such value has been published. If no data has been published for the final date of the specified period within 14 calendar days (ET) after the end of that period, this market will resolve based on data published up to that point.
Revisions to previously published data points made within this market’s timeframe will be considered. However, they will not disqualify a previously published data point from qualifying. Revisions to previously published data points after data is published for May 15, 2026, however, will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.
Mercado Aberto: Apr 22, 2026, 2:10 PM ET
Volume
$14,957,248Data de Término
15 mai 2026Mercado Aberto
Apr 22, 2026, 2:10 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes” if IMF Portwatch publishes a 7-day moving average of transit calls (“Arrivals of Ships”) for the Strait of Hormuz equal to or above 60 for any date between market creation and May 15, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Daily transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as IMF Portwatch publishes a 7-day moving average of transit calls equal to or above the specified level, or once data has been published for the final date in the specified period and no such value has been published. If no data has been published for the final date of the specified period within 14 calendar days (ET) after the end of that period, this market will resolve based on data published up to that point.
Revisions to previously published data points made within this market’s timeframe will be considered. However, they will not disqualify a previously published data point from qualifying. Revisions to previously published data points after data is published for May 15, 2026, however, will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.Persistent US naval blockade of Iranian ports in the Strait of Hormuz, combined with Iranian restrictions including tolls and vessel seizures, has throttled maritime traffic to 12-17 vessels per day—far below the pre-crisis average of 130—sustaining a restricted status for over 70 days amid the broader US-Iran conflict. The US Energy Information Administration's May 12 update, assuming effective closure through late May, alongside deadlocked peace talks and recent naval skirmishes, anchors trader consensus at 99.8% against normalization by May 15. Only an abrupt diplomatic breakthrough, ceasefire agreement, or sudden military de-escalation could alter this trajectory in the remaining two days.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if IMF Portwatch publishes a 7-day moving average of transit calls (“Arrivals of Ships”) for the Strait of Hormuz equal to or above 60 for any date between market creation and May 15, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Daily transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as IMF Portwatch publishes a 7-day moving average of transit calls equal to or above the specified level, or once data has been published for the final date in the specified period and no such value has been published. If no data has been published for the final date of the specified period within 14 calendar days (ET) after the end of that period, this market will resolve based on data published up to that point.
Revisions to previously published data points made within this market’s timeframe will be considered. However, they will not disqualify a previously published data point from qualifying. Revisions to previously published data points after data is published for May 15, 2026, however, will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.
Daily transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as IMF Portwatch publishes a 7-day moving average of transit calls equal to or above the specified level, or once data has been published for the final date in the specified period and no such value has been published. If no data has been published for the final date of the specified period within 14 calendar days (ET) after the end of that period, this market will resolve based on data published up to that point.
Revisions to previously published data points made within this market’s timeframe will be considered. However, they will not disqualify a previously published data point from qualifying. Revisions to previously published data points after data is published for May 15, 2026, however, will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.
Volume
$14,957,248Data de Término
15 mai 2026Mercado Aberto
Apr 22, 2026, 2:10 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Persistent US naval blockade of Iranian ports in the Strait of Hormuz, combined with Iranian restrictions including tolls and vessel seizures, has throttled maritime traffic to 12-17 vessels per day—far below the pre-crisis average of 130—sustaining a restricted status for over 70 days amid the broader US-Iran conflict. The US Energy Information Administration's May 12 update, assuming effective closure through late May, alongside deadlocked peace talks and recent naval skirmishes, anchors trader consensus at 99.8% against normalization by May 15. Only an abrupt diplomatic breakthrough, ceasefire agreement, or sudden military de-escalation could alter this trajectory in the remaining two days.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket. Isto não é aconselhamento de trading e não tem qualquer papel na resolução deste mercado. · Atualizado
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