The U.S. Department of Justice is preparing to seek a federal indictment against former Cuban president Raúl Castro in connection with the 1996 downing of two civilian aircraft operated by the exile group Brothers to the Rescue, an action that has elevated the probability of charges being filed. Recent reports indicate the Trump administration intends to unseal the indictment in Miami as early as May 20, amid broader pressure on Havana that includes diplomatic outreach and economic measures. This development, centered on Castro's role as defense minister at the time of the incident, has driven trader consensus toward a higher likelihood of formal federal charges, while the outcome remains subject to grand jury approval and any last-minute diplomatic or legal shifts.