The September 20, 2026 Berlin Abgeordnetenhaus election is less than a month away, with polls showing a fragmented field where Die Linke leads narrowly at 20–22 percent, followed closely by the CDU and AfD near 18–20 percent each, the Greens at 16–17 percent, and the SPD at 12–15 percent. No two-party combination reaches a majority of the 130 seats, making three-party coalitions the likely path. The incumbent CDU–SPD government under Mayor Kai Wegner (who stepped aside as candidate) polls well below 35 percent combined, while the Greens and SPD appear positioned as kingmakers. Leading options center on a rot-grün-rot alliance (Linke–Greens–SPD) or a Kenia coalition (CDU–Greens–SPD), with housing policy, rents, and security as key campaign issues. AfD cooperation remains ruled out across parties, and the CDU has excluded the Linke. Coalition negotiations after election night are expected to extend into December.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket. Isto não é aconselhamento de trading e não tem qualquer papel na resolução deste mercado. · AtualizadoNOVO
31 dez 2026
SPD
87%
Os Verdes
86%
Linke
69%
CDU
46%
FDP
5%
BSW
4%
AfD
2%
FW
1%
$4,340 Vol.
SPD
$177 Vol.
87%
Os Verdes
$83 Vol.
86%
Linke
$833 Vol.
69%
CDU
$848 Vol.
46%
FDP
$209 Vol.
5%
BSW
$280 Vol.
4%
AfD
$1,269 Vol.
2%
FW
$641 Vol.
1%
Parliamentary elections to elect the Abgeordnetenhaus of Berlin are scheduled to take place in Berlin on September 20, 2026.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the listed political party is included in the first Berlin state government formed after the 2026 Berlin state election. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market may resolve once the composition of the first Berlin state government following the 2026 state election is officially confirmed and that government has formally taken office.
The state government is considered formed when the newly elected Abgeordnetenhaus elects the Governing Mayor. A party is considered part of the state government if it provides at least one Senator, including the Governing Mayor. Parties that merely support the government (e.g., through confidence-and-supply arrangements, parliamentary support agreements, or similar) without holding a Senator post will not qualify.
If no government is formed, or the results are not known definitively by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market will resolve based on a consensus of credible reporting. In case of ambiguity, this market will resolve based on official information from the Senate of Berlin and the Abgeordnetenhaus of Berlin.The September 20, 2026 Berlin Abgeordnetenhaus election is less than a month away, with polls showing a fragmented field where Die Linke leads narrowly at 20–22 percent, followed closely by the CDU and AfD near 18–20 percent each, the Greens at 16–17 percent, and the SPD at 12–15 percent. No two-party combination reaches a majority of the 130 seats, making three-party coalitions the likely path. The incumbent CDU–SPD government under Mayor Kai Wegner (who stepped aside as candidate) polls well below 35 percent combined, while the Greens and SPD appear positioned as kingmakers. Leading options center on a rot-grün-rot alliance (Linke–Greens–SPD) or a Kenia coalition (CDU–Greens–SPD), with housing policy, rents, and security as key campaign issues. AfD cooperation remains ruled out across parties, and the CDU has excluded the Linke. Coalition negotiations after election night are expected to extend into December.
Parliamentary elections to elect the Abgeordnetenhaus of Berlin are scheduled to take place in Berlin on September 20, 2026.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the listed political party is included in the first Berlin state government formed after the 2026 Berlin state election. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market may resolve once the composition of the first Berlin state government following the 2026 state election is officially confirmed and that government has formally taken office.
The state government is considered formed when the newly elected Abgeordnetenhaus elects the Governing Mayor. A party is considered part of the state government if it provides at least one Senator, including the Governing Mayor. Parties that merely support the government (e.g., through confidence-and-supply arrangements, parliamentary support agreements, or similar) without holding a Senator post will not qualify.
If no government is formed, or the results are not known definitively by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market will resolve based on a consensus of credible reporting. In case of ambiguity, this market will resolve based on official information from the Senate of Berlin and the Abgeordnetenhaus of Berlin.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the listed political party is included in the first Berlin state government formed after the 2026 Berlin state election. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market may resolve once the composition of the first Berlin state government following the 2026 state election is officially confirmed and that government has formally taken office.
The state government is considered formed when the newly elected Abgeordnetenhaus elects the Governing Mayor. A party is considered part of the state government if it provides at least one Senator, including the Governing Mayor. Parties that merely support the government (e.g., through confidence-and-supply arrangements, parliamentary support agreements, or similar) without holding a Senator post will not qualify.
If no government is formed, or the results are not known definitively by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market will resolve based on a consensus of credible reporting. In case of ambiguity, this market will resolve based on official information from the Senate of Berlin and the Abgeordnetenhaus of Berlin.
Mercado Aberto: Aug 20, 2026, 1:42 PM ET
Volume
$4,340Data de Término
31 dez 2026Mercado Aberto
Aug 20, 2026, 1:42 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Parliamentary elections to elect the Abgeordnetenhaus of Berlin are scheduled to take place in Berlin on September 20, 2026.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the listed political party is included in the first Berlin state government formed after the 2026 Berlin state election. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market may resolve once the composition of the first Berlin state government following the 2026 state election is officially confirmed and that government has formally taken office.
The state government is considered formed when the newly elected Abgeordnetenhaus elects the Governing Mayor. A party is considered part of the state government if it provides at least one Senator, including the Governing Mayor. Parties that merely support the government (e.g., through confidence-and-supply arrangements, parliamentary support agreements, or similar) without holding a Senator post will not qualify.
If no government is formed, or the results are not known definitively by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market will resolve based on a consensus of credible reporting. In case of ambiguity, this market will resolve based on official information from the Senate of Berlin and the Abgeordnetenhaus of Berlin.The September 20, 2026 Berlin Abgeordnetenhaus election is less than a month away, with polls showing a fragmented field where Die Linke leads narrowly at 20–22 percent, followed closely by the CDU and AfD near 18–20 percent each, the Greens at 16–17 percent, and the SPD at 12–15 percent. No two-party combination reaches a majority of the 130 seats, making three-party coalitions the likely path. The incumbent CDU–SPD government under Mayor Kai Wegner (who stepped aside as candidate) polls well below 35 percent combined, while the Greens and SPD appear positioned as kingmakers. Leading options center on a rot-grün-rot alliance (Linke–Greens–SPD) or a Kenia coalition (CDU–Greens–SPD), with housing policy, rents, and security as key campaign issues. AfD cooperation remains ruled out across parties, and the CDU has excluded the Linke. Coalition negotiations after election night are expected to extend into December.
Parliamentary elections to elect the Abgeordnetenhaus of Berlin are scheduled to take place in Berlin on September 20, 2026.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the listed political party is included in the first Berlin state government formed after the 2026 Berlin state election. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market may resolve once the composition of the first Berlin state government following the 2026 state election is officially confirmed and that government has formally taken office.
The state government is considered formed when the newly elected Abgeordnetenhaus elects the Governing Mayor. A party is considered part of the state government if it provides at least one Senator, including the Governing Mayor. Parties that merely support the government (e.g., through confidence-and-supply arrangements, parliamentary support agreements, or similar) without holding a Senator post will not qualify.
If no government is formed, or the results are not known definitively by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market will resolve based on a consensus of credible reporting. In case of ambiguity, this market will resolve based on official information from the Senate of Berlin and the Abgeordnetenhaus of Berlin.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the listed political party is included in the first Berlin state government formed after the 2026 Berlin state election. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market may resolve once the composition of the first Berlin state government following the 2026 state election is officially confirmed and that government has formally taken office.
The state government is considered formed when the newly elected Abgeordnetenhaus elects the Governing Mayor. A party is considered part of the state government if it provides at least one Senator, including the Governing Mayor. Parties that merely support the government (e.g., through confidence-and-supply arrangements, parliamentary support agreements, or similar) without holding a Senator post will not qualify.
If no government is formed, or the results are not known definitively by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market will resolve based on a consensus of credible reporting. In case of ambiguity, this market will resolve based on official information from the Senate of Berlin and the Abgeordnetenhaus of Berlin.
Volume
$4,340Data de Término
31 dez 2026Mercado Aberto
Aug 20, 2026, 1:42 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...The September 20, 2026 Berlin Abgeordnetenhaus election is less than a month away, with polls showing a fragmented field where Die Linke leads narrowly at 20–22 percent, followed closely by the CDU and AfD near 18–20 percent each, the Greens at 16–17 percent, and the SPD at 12–15 percent. No two-party combination reaches a majority of the 130 seats, making three-party coalitions the likely path. The incumbent CDU–SPD government under Mayor Kai Wegner (who stepped aside as candidate) polls well below 35 percent combined, while the Greens and SPD appear positioned as kingmakers. Leading options center on a rot-grün-rot alliance (Linke–Greens–SPD) or a Kenia coalition (CDU–Greens–SPD), with housing policy, rents, and security as key campaign issues. AfD cooperation remains ruled out across parties, and the CDU has excluded the Linke. Coalition negotiations after election night are expected to extend into December.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket. Isto não é aconselhamento de trading e não tem qualquer papel na resolução deste mercado. · Atualizado
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