**Traders assign a 96.9% probability to no new country joining the Abraham Accords by August 31, 2026, reflecting the absence of active, near-term diplomatic processes capable of producing a formal accession in the remaining days.** The most recent expansion occurred with Kazakhstan’s announcement and formalization in late 2025 and early 2026; Somaliland pledged to join following Israel’s December 2025 recognition but has not completed accession. Ongoing discussions with Saudi Arabia remain stalled over Palestinian statehood requirements, while Syria faces persistent bilateral tensions and military frictions despite earlier signals of interest. Other potential candidates, such as Azerbaijan or additional Central Asian states, involve largely symbolic steps that have not advanced to signing stage. Diplomatic normalization agreements typically require preparatory negotiations, public announcements, and formal ceremonies that exceed the short window before the resolution date. Realistic scenarios that could still shift the outcome include an unexpected last-minute announcement tied to U.S. or Israeli diplomatic initiatives, rapid formalization by Somaliland, or a breakthrough with a country already maintaining de facto ties with Israel. Such developments remain low-probability given current reporting on stalled or early-stage talks.