Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects a 94.8% implied probability for Apple releasing the iPhone 18 in 2026, driven by recent supply chain reports confirming iPhone 18 Pro and Pro Max models will launch in the traditional September timeframe alongside a rumored foldable iPhone Ultra. Bloomberg and MacRumors leaks from early May highlight Apple's shift to a staggered rollout, with base models potentially delayed to spring 2027 amid cost-cutting on components like a downgraded A20 chip, but Pro variants remain on track per analyst Ming-Chi Kuo's supply chain insights. This aligns with Apple's unbroken 18-year annual iPhone release cycle, even through disruptions like COVID. Realistic challenges include unforeseen manufacturing delays or strategic pivots, though traders see minimal risk given historical precedents and pre-order preparations. Watch for WWDC hints or certification filings in coming months.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket. Isto não é aconselhamento de trading e não tem qualquer papel na resolução deste mercado. · AtualizadoA Apple lançará o iPhone 18 em 2026?
A Apple lançará o iPhone 18 em 2026?
Sim
$96,027 Vol.
$96,027 Vol.
31 dez 2026
Sim
$96,027 Vol.
$96,027 Vol.
31 dez 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Apple officially releases iPhone 18 by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A qualifying product must be named "iPhone" and be recognized as a successor to the original iPhone product, similar to the relationship between iPhone 15 and iPhone 16. A new iPhone product released without a number, under a designation other than iPhone 18, will qualify if it retains the original functions of the iPhone and expands on them in such a way that it is clear that this product is a successor.
In order to be considered released, the product must be available for purchase by the general public within the specified timeframe. An announcement or unveiling alone is not sufficient.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official statements from Apple. However, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects a 94.8% implied probability for Apple releasing the iPhone 18 in 2026, driven by recent supply chain reports confirming iPhone 18 Pro and Pro Max models will launch in the traditional September timeframe alongside a rumored foldable iPhone Ultra. Bloomberg and MacRumors leaks from early May highlight Apple's shift to a staggered rollout, with base models potentially delayed to spring 2027 amid cost-cutting on components like a downgraded A20 chip, but Pro variants remain on track per analyst Ming-Chi Kuo's supply chain insights. This aligns with Apple's unbroken 18-year annual iPhone release cycle, even through disruptions like COVID. Realistic challenges include unforeseen manufacturing delays or strategic pivots, though traders see minimal risk given historical precedents and pre-order preparations. Watch for WWDC hints or certification filings in coming months.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Apple officially releases iPhone 18 by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A qualifying product must be named "iPhone" and be recognized as a successor to the original iPhone product, similar to the relationship between iPhone 15 and iPhone 16. A new iPhone product released without a number, under a designation other than iPhone 18, will qualify if it retains the original functions of the iPhone and expands on them in such a way that it is clear that this product is a successor.
In order to be considered released, the product must be available for purchase by the general public within the specified timeframe. An announcement or unveiling alone is not sufficient.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official statements from Apple. However, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
A qualifying product must be named "iPhone" and be recognized as a successor to the original iPhone product, similar to the relationship between iPhone 15 and iPhone 16. A new iPhone product released without a number, under a designation other than iPhone 18, will qualify if it retains the original functions of the iPhone and expands on them in such a way that it is clear that this product is a successor.
In order to be considered released, the product must be available for purchase by the general public within the specified timeframe. An announcement or unveiling alone is not sufficient.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official statements from Apple. However, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Mercado Aberto: Dec 12, 2025, 5:53 PM ET
Volume
$96,027Data de Término
31 dez 2026Mercado Aberto
Dec 12, 2025, 5:53 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if Apple officially releases iPhone 18 by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A qualifying product must be named "iPhone" and be recognized as a successor to the original iPhone product, similar to the relationship between iPhone 15 and iPhone 16. A new iPhone product released without a number, under a designation other than iPhone 18, will qualify if it retains the original functions of the iPhone and expands on them in such a way that it is clear that this product is a successor.
In order to be considered released, the product must be available for purchase by the general public within the specified timeframe. An announcement or unveiling alone is not sufficient.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official statements from Apple. However, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects a 94.8% implied probability for Apple releasing the iPhone 18 in 2026, driven by recent supply chain reports confirming iPhone 18 Pro and Pro Max models will launch in the traditional September timeframe alongside a rumored foldable iPhone Ultra. Bloomberg and MacRumors leaks from early May highlight Apple's shift to a staggered rollout, with base models potentially delayed to spring 2027 amid cost-cutting on components like a downgraded A20 chip, but Pro variants remain on track per analyst Ming-Chi Kuo's supply chain insights. This aligns with Apple's unbroken 18-year annual iPhone release cycle, even through disruptions like COVID. Realistic challenges include unforeseen manufacturing delays or strategic pivots, though traders see minimal risk given historical precedents and pre-order preparations. Watch for WWDC hints or certification filings in coming months.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Apple officially releases iPhone 18 by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A qualifying product must be named "iPhone" and be recognized as a successor to the original iPhone product, similar to the relationship between iPhone 15 and iPhone 16. A new iPhone product released without a number, under a designation other than iPhone 18, will qualify if it retains the original functions of the iPhone and expands on them in such a way that it is clear that this product is a successor.
In order to be considered released, the product must be available for purchase by the general public within the specified timeframe. An announcement or unveiling alone is not sufficient.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official statements from Apple. However, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
A qualifying product must be named "iPhone" and be recognized as a successor to the original iPhone product, similar to the relationship between iPhone 15 and iPhone 16. A new iPhone product released without a number, under a designation other than iPhone 18, will qualify if it retains the original functions of the iPhone and expands on them in such a way that it is clear that this product is a successor.
In order to be considered released, the product must be available for purchase by the general public within the specified timeframe. An announcement or unveiling alone is not sufficient.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official statements from Apple. However, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Volume
$96,027Data de Término
31 dez 2026Mercado Aberto
Dec 12, 2025, 5:53 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects a 94.8% implied probability for Apple releasing the iPhone 18 in 2026, driven by recent supply chain reports confirming iPhone 18 Pro and Pro Max models will launch in the traditional September timeframe alongside a rumored foldable iPhone Ultra. Bloomberg and MacRumors leaks from early May highlight Apple's shift to a staggered rollout, with base models potentially delayed to spring 2027 amid cost-cutting on components like a downgraded A20 chip, but Pro variants remain on track per analyst Ming-Chi Kuo's supply chain insights. This aligns with Apple's unbroken 18-year annual iPhone release cycle, even through disruptions like COVID. Realistic challenges include unforeseen manufacturing delays or strategic pivots, though traders see minimal risk given historical precedents and pre-order preparations. Watch for WWDC hints or certification filings in coming months.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket. Isto não é aconselhamento de trading e não tem qualquer papel na resolução deste mercado. · Atualizado
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