Recent observational data from the Global Carbon Project and 2026 emissions stocktakes show annual CO₂ releases remaining near 42 Gt, consistent with the Mercator Research Institute's carbon budget estimate anchored to IPCC AR6 Working Group I. This keeps the Climate Clock's 1.5°C deadline fixed near July 2029, with updates occurring only quarterly or annually unless a major revision to the remaining budget (roughly 400 GtCO₂ from 2020 baselines for 67% likelihood) occurs. No new IPCC assessment or abrupt mitigation surge is scheduled before late 2026, and emerging El Niño conditions primarily influence short-term temperature anomalies rather than the underlying cumulative emissions trajectory used for resolution. Trader consensus at 83.5% for no change reflects these stable fundamentals ahead of the December 31, 2026 cutoff.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket. Isto não é aconselhamento de trading e não tem qualquer papel na resolução deste mercado. · AtualizadoO prazo de 1,5°C do Relógio Climático mudará até...?
O prazo de 1,5°C do Relógio Climático mudará até...?
17% chance
$10,678 Vol.
$10,678 Vol.
1 jan 2027
17% chance
$10,678 Vol.
$10,678 Vol.
1 jan 2027
Each market asks whether the “Deadline” to limit global warming to 1.5°C shown by the Climate Clock (https://climateclock.world) will change before that market's listed date.
A market resolves to “Yes” if, at any point on or before its listed date, 11:59 PM ET, the Climate Clock's published 1.5°C Deadline is more than 30 days earlier or more than 30 days later than July 22, 2029. Otherwise, that market resolves to “No”.
The Climate Clock's 1.5°C Deadline is published as a machine-readable timestamp in its public data feed at https://api.climateclock.world/v2/clock.json (the “timestamp” value of the carbon-deadline module), which is the same target the on-site countdown at https://climateclock.world displays. As of this market's creation, that Deadline is July 22, 2029 (timestamp 2029-07-22T16:00:00+00:00). The ordinary second-by-second ticking of the countdown toward the Deadline does not constitute a change; only a change to the published Deadline date itself qualifies.
Because a qualifying change is permanent once published, every market with a listed date on or after the change will resolve “Yes”, and markets whose listed date has already passed without a qualifying change will have resolved “No”. If the Climate Clock and its public data feed both become permanently unavailable before a qualifying change is published, all unresolved markets will resolve to “No”.Recent observational data from the Global Carbon Project and 2026 emissions stocktakes show annual CO₂ releases remaining near 42 Gt, consistent with the Mercator Research Institute's carbon budget estimate anchored to IPCC AR6 Working Group I. This keeps the Climate Clock's 1.5°C deadline fixed near July 2029, with updates occurring only quarterly or annually unless a major revision to the remaining budget (roughly 400 GtCO₂ from 2020 baselines for 67% likelihood) occurs. No new IPCC assessment or abrupt mitigation surge is scheduled before late 2026, and emerging El Niño conditions primarily influence short-term temperature anomalies rather than the underlying cumulative emissions trajectory used for resolution. Trader consensus at 83.5% for no change reflects these stable fundamentals ahead of the December 31, 2026 cutoff.
Each market asks whether the “Deadline” to limit global warming to 1.5°C shown by the Climate Clock (https://climateclock.world) will change before that market's listed date.
A market resolves to “Yes” if, at any point on or before its listed date, 11:59 PM ET, the Climate Clock's published 1.5°C Deadline is more than 30 days earlier or more than 30 days later than July 22, 2029. Otherwise, that market resolves to “No”.
The Climate Clock's 1.5°C Deadline is published as a machine-readable timestamp in its public data feed at https://api.climateclock.world/v2/clock.json (the “timestamp” value of the carbon-deadline module), which is the same target the on-site countdown at https://climateclock.world displays. As of this market's creation, that Deadline is July 22, 2029 (timestamp 2029-07-22T16:00:00+00:00). The ordinary second-by-second ticking of the countdown toward the Deadline does not constitute a change; only a change to the published Deadline date itself qualifies.
Because a qualifying change is permanent once published, every market with a listed date on or after the change will resolve “Yes”, and markets whose listed date has already passed without a qualifying change will have resolved “No”. If the Climate Clock and its public data feed both become permanently unavailable before a qualifying change is published, all unresolved markets will resolve to “No”.
A market resolves to “Yes” if, at any point on or before its listed date, 11:59 PM ET, the Climate Clock's published 1.5°C Deadline is more than 30 days earlier or more than 30 days later than July 22, 2029. Otherwise, that market resolves to “No”.
The Climate Clock's 1.5°C Deadline is published as a machine-readable timestamp in its public data feed at https://api.climateclock.world/v2/clock.json (the “timestamp” value of the carbon-deadline module), which is the same target the on-site countdown at https://climateclock.world displays. As of this market's creation, that Deadline is July 22, 2029 (timestamp 2029-07-22T16:00:00+00:00). The ordinary second-by-second ticking of the countdown toward the Deadline does not constitute a change; only a change to the published Deadline date itself qualifies.
Because a qualifying change is permanent once published, every market with a listed date on or after the change will resolve “Yes”, and markets whose listed date has already passed without a qualifying change will have resolved “No”. If the Climate Clock and its public data feed both become permanently unavailable before a qualifying change is published, all unresolved markets will resolve to “No”.
Mercado Aberto: Aug 19, 2026, 6:40 PM ET
Volume
$10,678Data de Término
31 dez 2029Mercado Aberto
Aug 19, 2026, 6:40 PM ETFonte de resolução
https://climateclock.worldResolver
0x65070BE91...Each market asks whether the “Deadline” to limit global warming to 1.5°C shown by the Climate Clock (https://climateclock.world) will change before that market's listed date.
A market resolves to “Yes” if, at any point on or before its listed date, 11:59 PM ET, the Climate Clock's published 1.5°C Deadline is more than 30 days earlier or more than 30 days later than July 22, 2029. Otherwise, that market resolves to “No”.
The Climate Clock's 1.5°C Deadline is published as a machine-readable timestamp in its public data feed at https://api.climateclock.world/v2/clock.json (the “timestamp” value of the carbon-deadline module), which is the same target the on-site countdown at https://climateclock.world displays. As of this market's creation, that Deadline is July 22, 2029 (timestamp 2029-07-22T16:00:00+00:00). The ordinary second-by-second ticking of the countdown toward the Deadline does not constitute a change; only a change to the published Deadline date itself qualifies.
Because a qualifying change is permanent once published, every market with a listed date on or after the change will resolve “Yes”, and markets whose listed date has already passed without a qualifying change will have resolved “No”. If the Climate Clock and its public data feed both become permanently unavailable before a qualifying change is published, all unresolved markets will resolve to “No”.Recent observational data from the Global Carbon Project and 2026 emissions stocktakes show annual CO₂ releases remaining near 42 Gt, consistent with the Mercator Research Institute's carbon budget estimate anchored to IPCC AR6 Working Group I. This keeps the Climate Clock's 1.5°C deadline fixed near July 2029, with updates occurring only quarterly or annually unless a major revision to the remaining budget (roughly 400 GtCO₂ from 2020 baselines for 67% likelihood) occurs. No new IPCC assessment or abrupt mitigation surge is scheduled before late 2026, and emerging El Niño conditions primarily influence short-term temperature anomalies rather than the underlying cumulative emissions trajectory used for resolution. Trader consensus at 83.5% for no change reflects these stable fundamentals ahead of the December 31, 2026 cutoff.
Each market asks whether the “Deadline” to limit global warming to 1.5°C shown by the Climate Clock (https://climateclock.world) will change before that market's listed date.
A market resolves to “Yes” if, at any point on or before its listed date, 11:59 PM ET, the Climate Clock's published 1.5°C Deadline is more than 30 days earlier or more than 30 days later than July 22, 2029. Otherwise, that market resolves to “No”.
The Climate Clock's 1.5°C Deadline is published as a machine-readable timestamp in its public data feed at https://api.climateclock.world/v2/clock.json (the “timestamp” value of the carbon-deadline module), which is the same target the on-site countdown at https://climateclock.world displays. As of this market's creation, that Deadline is July 22, 2029 (timestamp 2029-07-22T16:00:00+00:00). The ordinary second-by-second ticking of the countdown toward the Deadline does not constitute a change; only a change to the published Deadline date itself qualifies.
Because a qualifying change is permanent once published, every market with a listed date on or after the change will resolve “Yes”, and markets whose listed date has already passed without a qualifying change will have resolved “No”. If the Climate Clock and its public data feed both become permanently unavailable before a qualifying change is published, all unresolved markets will resolve to “No”.
A market resolves to “Yes” if, at any point on or before its listed date, 11:59 PM ET, the Climate Clock's published 1.5°C Deadline is more than 30 days earlier or more than 30 days later than July 22, 2029. Otherwise, that market resolves to “No”.
The Climate Clock's 1.5°C Deadline is published as a machine-readable timestamp in its public data feed at https://api.climateclock.world/v2/clock.json (the “timestamp” value of the carbon-deadline module), which is the same target the on-site countdown at https://climateclock.world displays. As of this market's creation, that Deadline is July 22, 2029 (timestamp 2029-07-22T16:00:00+00:00). The ordinary second-by-second ticking of the countdown toward the Deadline does not constitute a change; only a change to the published Deadline date itself qualifies.
Because a qualifying change is permanent once published, every market with a listed date on or after the change will resolve “Yes”, and markets whose listed date has already passed without a qualifying change will have resolved “No”. If the Climate Clock and its public data feed both become permanently unavailable before a qualifying change is published, all unresolved markets will resolve to “No”.
Volume
$10,678Data de Término
1 jan 2027Mercado Aberto
Aug 19, 2026, 6:40 PM ETFonte de resolução
https://climateclock.worldResolver
0x65070BE91...Recent observational data from the Global Carbon Project and 2026 emissions stocktakes show annual CO₂ releases remaining near 42 Gt, consistent with the Mercator Research Institute's carbon budget estimate anchored to IPCC AR6 Working Group I. This keeps the Climate Clock's 1.5°C deadline fixed near July 2029, with updates occurring only quarterly or annually unless a major revision to the remaining budget (roughly 400 GtCO₂ from 2020 baselines for 67% likelihood) occurs. No new IPCC assessment or abrupt mitigation surge is scheduled before late 2026, and emerging El Niño conditions primarily influence short-term temperature anomalies rather than the underlying cumulative emissions trajectory used for resolution. Trader consensus at 83.5% for no change reflects these stable fundamentals ahead of the December 31, 2026 cutoff.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket. Isto não é aconselhamento de trading e não tem qualquer papel na resolução deste mercado. · Atualizado
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