Recent rapid intensification of the ongoing El Niño, with Niño 3.4 sea-surface temperature anomalies already reaching +2.5°C, drives the high market-implied probability of a super (very strong) event this winter. NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center reports an 81% chance of very strong conditions during October–December 2026 and a 97% likelihood the episode persists into early 2027, supported by record subsurface warmth and strong ocean-atmosphere coupling. Dynamical models, including ECMWF, converge on a potential peak exceeding prior records. Trader consensus reflects this robust observational and modeling evidence, though realistic shifts in atmospheric feedback or later model revisions could moderate final intensity below super El Niño thresholds.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket. Isto não é aconselhamento de trading e não tem qualquer papel na resolução deste mercado. · AtualizadoHaverá um Super El Niño neste inverno (2026–27)?
Haverá um Super El Niño neste inverno (2026–27)?
Sim
92% chance
NOVO
NOVO
1 abr 2027
Sim
92% chance
NOVO
NOVO
1 abr 2027
This market will resolve "Yes" if NOAA's Climate Prediction Center reports a Regional Ocean Niño Index (RONI) value of +2.0°C or higher for any of the following seasons: ASO 2026, SON 2026, OND 2026, NDJ 2026-27, or DJF 2026-27, as reported in official NOAA CPC RONI updates, https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/enso/roni/. Otherwise, this market will resolve "No".
A Super El Niño is an El Niño event in which RONI reaches this threshold for at least one overlapping ENSO season. An ENSO season is one of NOAA's standard overlapping 3-month periods (e.g., ASO, SON, OND, NDJ, DJF).
This market may resolve "Yes" immediately upon NOAA's first publication of a qualifying RONI value for any listed season. If no season has qualified, this market will not resolve "No" until NOAA publishes the DJF 2026-27 value since DJF captures El Niño's typical peak-strength window and an earlier "No" could contradict the final published data.
The first published RONI value for each listed season is final and governs this market's resolution; no subsequent revision to any season's value will be considered or will change the outcome once that season's first value has been published.Recent rapid intensification of the ongoing El Niño, with Niño 3.4 sea-surface temperature anomalies already reaching +2.5°C, drives the high market-implied probability of a super (very strong) event this winter. NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center reports an 81% chance of very strong conditions during October–December 2026 and a 97% likelihood the episode persists into early 2027, supported by record subsurface warmth and strong ocean-atmosphere coupling. Dynamical models, including ECMWF, converge on a potential peak exceeding prior records. Trader consensus reflects this robust observational and modeling evidence, though realistic shifts in atmospheric feedback or later model revisions could moderate final intensity below super El Niño thresholds.
This market will resolve "Yes" if NOAA's Climate Prediction Center reports a Regional Ocean Niño Index (RONI) value of +2.0°C or higher for any of the following seasons: ASO 2026, SON 2026, OND 2026, NDJ 2026-27, or DJF 2026-27, as reported in official NOAA CPC RONI updates, https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/enso/roni/. Otherwise, this market will resolve "No".
A Super El Niño is an El Niño event in which RONI reaches this threshold for at least one overlapping ENSO season. An ENSO season is one of NOAA's standard overlapping 3-month periods (e.g., ASO, SON, OND, NDJ, DJF).
This market may resolve "Yes" immediately upon NOAA's first publication of a qualifying RONI value for any listed season. If no season has qualified, this market will not resolve "No" until NOAA publishes the DJF 2026-27 value since DJF captures El Niño's typical peak-strength window and an earlier "No" could contradict the final published data.
The first published RONI value for each listed season is final and governs this market's resolution; no subsequent revision to any season's value will be considered or will change the outcome once that season's first value has been published.
A Super El Niño is an El Niño event in which RONI reaches this threshold for at least one overlapping ENSO season. An ENSO season is one of NOAA's standard overlapping 3-month periods (e.g., ASO, SON, OND, NDJ, DJF).
This market may resolve "Yes" immediately upon NOAA's first publication of a qualifying RONI value for any listed season. If no season has qualified, this market will not resolve "No" until NOAA publishes the DJF 2026-27 value since DJF captures El Niño's typical peak-strength window and an earlier "No" could contradict the final published data.
The first published RONI value for each listed season is final and governs this market's resolution; no subsequent revision to any season's value will be considered or will change the outcome once that season's first value has been published.
Mercado Aberto: Jul 24, 2026, 12:34 PM ET
Volume
$4,658Data de Término
1 abr 2027Mercado Aberto
Jul 24, 2026, 12:34 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve "Yes" if NOAA's Climate Prediction Center reports a Regional Ocean Niño Index (RONI) value of +2.0°C or higher for any of the following seasons: ASO 2026, SON 2026, OND 2026, NDJ 2026-27, or DJF 2026-27, as reported in official NOAA CPC RONI updates, https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/enso/roni/. Otherwise, this market will resolve "No".
A Super El Niño is an El Niño event in which RONI reaches this threshold for at least one overlapping ENSO season. An ENSO season is one of NOAA's standard overlapping 3-month periods (e.g., ASO, SON, OND, NDJ, DJF).
This market may resolve "Yes" immediately upon NOAA's first publication of a qualifying RONI value for any listed season. If no season has qualified, this market will not resolve "No" until NOAA publishes the DJF 2026-27 value since DJF captures El Niño's typical peak-strength window and an earlier "No" could contradict the final published data.
The first published RONI value for each listed season is final and governs this market's resolution; no subsequent revision to any season's value will be considered or will change the outcome once that season's first value has been published.Recent rapid intensification of the ongoing El Niño, with Niño 3.4 sea-surface temperature anomalies already reaching +2.5°C, drives the high market-implied probability of a super (very strong) event this winter. NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center reports an 81% chance of very strong conditions during October–December 2026 and a 97% likelihood the episode persists into early 2027, supported by record subsurface warmth and strong ocean-atmosphere coupling. Dynamical models, including ECMWF, converge on a potential peak exceeding prior records. Trader consensus reflects this robust observational and modeling evidence, though realistic shifts in atmospheric feedback or later model revisions could moderate final intensity below super El Niño thresholds.
This market will resolve "Yes" if NOAA's Climate Prediction Center reports a Regional Ocean Niño Index (RONI) value of +2.0°C or higher for any of the following seasons: ASO 2026, SON 2026, OND 2026, NDJ 2026-27, or DJF 2026-27, as reported in official NOAA CPC RONI updates, https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/enso/roni/. Otherwise, this market will resolve "No".
A Super El Niño is an El Niño event in which RONI reaches this threshold for at least one overlapping ENSO season. An ENSO season is one of NOAA's standard overlapping 3-month periods (e.g., ASO, SON, OND, NDJ, DJF).
This market may resolve "Yes" immediately upon NOAA's first publication of a qualifying RONI value for any listed season. If no season has qualified, this market will not resolve "No" until NOAA publishes the DJF 2026-27 value since DJF captures El Niño's typical peak-strength window and an earlier "No" could contradict the final published data.
The first published RONI value for each listed season is final and governs this market's resolution; no subsequent revision to any season's value will be considered or will change the outcome once that season's first value has been published.
A Super El Niño is an El Niño event in which RONI reaches this threshold for at least one overlapping ENSO season. An ENSO season is one of NOAA's standard overlapping 3-month periods (e.g., ASO, SON, OND, NDJ, DJF).
This market may resolve "Yes" immediately upon NOAA's first publication of a qualifying RONI value for any listed season. If no season has qualified, this market will not resolve "No" until NOAA publishes the DJF 2026-27 value since DJF captures El Niño's typical peak-strength window and an earlier "No" could contradict the final published data.
The first published RONI value for each listed season is final and governs this market's resolution; no subsequent revision to any season's value will be considered or will change the outcome once that season's first value has been published.
Volume
$4,658Data de Término
1 abr 2027Mercado Aberto
Jul 24, 2026, 12:34 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Recent rapid intensification of the ongoing El Niño, with Niño 3.4 sea-surface temperature anomalies already reaching +2.5°C, drives the high market-implied probability of a super (very strong) event this winter. NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center reports an 81% chance of very strong conditions during October–December 2026 and a 97% likelihood the episode persists into early 2027, supported by record subsurface warmth and strong ocean-atmosphere coupling. Dynamical models, including ECMWF, converge on a potential peak exceeding prior records. Trader consensus reflects this robust observational and modeling evidence, though realistic shifts in atmospheric feedback or later model revisions could moderate final intensity below super El Niño thresholds.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket. Isto não é aconselhamento de trading e não tem qualquer papel na resolução deste mercado. · Atualizado
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