**Bipartisan Senate opposition and recent legal setbacks have solidified trader expectations against a pardon by year-end.** In late July 2026, the Senate unanimously approved a non-binding resolution urging that Ghislaine Maxwell receive no presidential pardon or clemency for her federal sex-trafficking conviction tied to Jeffrey Epstein. Acting Attorney General Todd Blanche has stated he would not recommend clemency, and Maxwell’s August 2026 habeas petition was rejected by a federal judge as meritless and frivolous, exhausting her remaining appeals. President Trump has repeatedly acknowledged his authority to act but described the matter as unconsidered, unrequested, and inappropriate to discuss at this stage. These developments—combined with the short window remaining before the end of 2026—have produced the current 94% implied probability on “No,” reflecting broad institutional and political resistance to clemency in this case.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket. Isto não é aconselhamento de trading e não tem qualquer papel na resolução deste mercado. · AtualizadoSim
6% chance
$747,966 Vol.
$747,966 Vol.
30 dez 2026
Ganhe 3.25%
Sim
6% chance
$747,966 Vol.
$747,966 Vol.
30 dez 2026
Ganhe 3.25%
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Ghislaine Maxwell receives a presidential pardon, commutation, or reprieve from Donald Trump between July 23, 2025 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
If it becomes impossible for Trump issue a federal pardon, commutation, or reprieve within this market's timeframe, it may immediately resolve to "No".
The primary resolution source for whether a person is pardoned or not will be official information from the US government, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.**Bipartisan Senate opposition and recent legal setbacks have solidified trader expectations against a pardon by year-end.** In late July 2026, the Senate unanimously approved a non-binding resolution urging that Ghislaine Maxwell receive no presidential pardon or clemency for her federal sex-trafficking conviction tied to Jeffrey Epstein. Acting Attorney General Todd Blanche has stated he would not recommend clemency, and Maxwell’s August 2026 habeas petition was rejected by a federal judge as meritless and frivolous, exhausting her remaining appeals. President Trump has repeatedly acknowledged his authority to act but described the matter as unconsidered, unrequested, and inappropriate to discuss at this stage. These developments—combined with the short window remaining before the end of 2026—have produced the current 94% implied probability on “No,” reflecting broad institutional and political resistance to clemency in this case.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Ghislaine Maxwell receives a presidential pardon, commutation, or reprieve from Donald Trump between July 23, 2025 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
If it becomes impossible for Trump issue a federal pardon, commutation, or reprieve within this market's timeframe, it may immediately resolve to "No".
The primary resolution source for whether a person is pardoned or not will be official information from the US government, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
If it becomes impossible for Trump issue a federal pardon, commutation, or reprieve within this market's timeframe, it may immediately resolve to "No".
The primary resolution source for whether a person is pardoned or not will be official information from the US government, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Mercado Aberto: Jul 23, 2025, 1:17 AM ET
Volume
$747,966Data de Término
31 dez 2026Mercado Aberto
Jul 23, 2025, 1:17 AM ETResolver
0x157Ce2d67...This market will resolve to "Yes" if Ghislaine Maxwell receives a presidential pardon, commutation, or reprieve from Donald Trump between July 23, 2025 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
If it becomes impossible for Trump issue a federal pardon, commutation, or reprieve within this market's timeframe, it may immediately resolve to "No".
The primary resolution source for whether a person is pardoned or not will be official information from the US government, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.**Bipartisan Senate opposition and recent legal setbacks have solidified trader expectations against a pardon by year-end.** In late July 2026, the Senate unanimously approved a non-binding resolution urging that Ghislaine Maxwell receive no presidential pardon or clemency for her federal sex-trafficking conviction tied to Jeffrey Epstein. Acting Attorney General Todd Blanche has stated he would not recommend clemency, and Maxwell’s August 2026 habeas petition was rejected by a federal judge as meritless and frivolous, exhausting her remaining appeals. President Trump has repeatedly acknowledged his authority to act but described the matter as unconsidered, unrequested, and inappropriate to discuss at this stage. These developments—combined with the short window remaining before the end of 2026—have produced the current 94% implied probability on “No,” reflecting broad institutional and political resistance to clemency in this case.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Ghislaine Maxwell receives a presidential pardon, commutation, or reprieve from Donald Trump between July 23, 2025 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
If it becomes impossible for Trump issue a federal pardon, commutation, or reprieve within this market's timeframe, it may immediately resolve to "No".
The primary resolution source for whether a person is pardoned or not will be official information from the US government, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
If it becomes impossible for Trump issue a federal pardon, commutation, or reprieve within this market's timeframe, it may immediately resolve to "No".
The primary resolution source for whether a person is pardoned or not will be official information from the US government, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Volume
$747,966Data de Término
31 dez 2026Mercado Aberto
Jul 23, 2025, 1:17 AM ETResolver
0x157Ce2d67...**Bipartisan Senate opposition and recent legal setbacks have solidified trader expectations against a pardon by year-end.** In late July 2026, the Senate unanimously approved a non-binding resolution urging that Ghislaine Maxwell receive no presidential pardon or clemency for her federal sex-trafficking conviction tied to Jeffrey Epstein. Acting Attorney General Todd Blanche has stated he would not recommend clemency, and Maxwell’s August 2026 habeas petition was rejected by a federal judge as meritless and frivolous, exhausting her remaining appeals. President Trump has repeatedly acknowledged his authority to act but described the matter as unconsidered, unrequested, and inappropriate to discuss at this stage. These developments—combined with the short window remaining before the end of 2026—have produced the current 94% implied probability on “No,” reflecting broad institutional and political resistance to clemency in this case.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket. Isto não é aconselhamento de trading e não tem qualquer papel na resolução deste mercado. · Atualizado
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