Despite recent splits among House Republicans on whether to support clemency for Ghislaine Maxwell in exchange for testimony in the ongoing Epstein investigation, trader consensus assigns only a 9.5% chance of a pardon by the end of 2026. President Trump has offered no firm commitment, stating he would consult the Justice Department while noting he has received many pardon requests. Opposition from Democrats on the Oversight Committee, victims’ advocates, and concerns over public reaction to leniency in a high-profile sex-trafficking case continue to weigh heavily on assessments. These political and procedural barriers, rather than any outright prohibition, shape the current implied probability.