Trader consensus heavily favors "No" at 98.3% because megaton-scale atmospheric impacts remain statistically rare—occurring only a few times per decade—with no forecasted threats from ongoing near-Earth object surveys as of late August 2026. Extensive sky monitoring by NASA and partners has detected no qualifying bolides in the first eight months of the year, and recent fireballs released energies orders of magnitude lower, such as hundreds of tons of TNT. While improved asteroid detection systems reduce surprise risks, an undetected object could theoretically still produce an impact before year-end, though the probability stays minimal given current observational coverage and historical patterns.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · Обновлено1 мегатонный удар метеорита в 2026 году?
1 мегатонный удар метеорита в 2026 году?
Да
2% вероятность
$116,836 Объем
$116,836 Объем
31 дек. 2026 г.
Да
2% вероятность
$116,836 Объем
$116,836 Объем
31 дек. 2026 г.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a natural meteoroid (bolide) explodes in Earth's atmosphere with a total impact energy greater than or equal to 1 megaton (1000 kilotons) of TNT equivalent between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The object must be classified as a natural meteoroid; events involving artificial objects or reentry vehicles do not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository: https://cneos.jpl.nasa.gov/fireballs/. The relevant field for determining impact energy is the “Impact Energy (kt)” column. If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant dates by February 28, 2027, or if the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible sources including the European Space Agency (ESA), the International Asteroid Warning Network (IAWN), the U.S. Department of Defense, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus, such as a NASA press release.Trader consensus heavily favors "No" at 98.3% because megaton-scale atmospheric impacts remain statistically rare—occurring only a few times per decade—with no forecasted threats from ongoing near-Earth object surveys as of late August 2026. Extensive sky monitoring by NASA and partners has detected no qualifying bolides in the first eight months of the year, and recent fireballs released energies orders of magnitude lower, such as hundreds of tons of TNT. While improved asteroid detection systems reduce surprise risks, an undetected object could theoretically still produce an impact before year-end, though the probability stays minimal given current observational coverage and historical patterns.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a natural meteoroid (bolide) explodes in Earth's atmosphere with a total impact energy greater than or equal to 1 megaton (1000 kilotons) of TNT equivalent between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The object must be classified as a natural meteoroid; events involving artificial objects or reentry vehicles do not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository: https://cneos.jpl.nasa.gov/fireballs/. The relevant field for determining impact energy is the “Impact Energy (kt)” column. If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant dates by February 28, 2027, or if the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible sources including the European Space Agency (ESA), the International Asteroid Warning Network (IAWN), the U.S. Department of Defense, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus, such as a NASA press release.
The object must be classified as a natural meteoroid; events involving artificial objects or reentry vehicles do not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository: https://cneos.jpl.nasa.gov/fireballs/. The relevant field for determining impact energy is the “Impact Energy (kt)” column. If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant dates by February 28, 2027, or if the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible sources including the European Space Agency (ESA), the International Asteroid Warning Network (IAWN), the U.S. Department of Defense, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus, such as a NASA press release.
Открытие рынка: Jan 2, 2026, 2:24 PM ET
Объем
$116,836Дата окончания
1 янв. 2027 г.Открытие рынка
Jan 2, 2026, 2:24 PM ETКто определяет исход
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if a natural meteoroid (bolide) explodes in Earth's atmosphere with a total impact energy greater than or equal to 1 megaton (1000 kilotons) of TNT equivalent between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The object must be classified as a natural meteoroid; events involving artificial objects or reentry vehicles do not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository: https://cneos.jpl.nasa.gov/fireballs/. The relevant field for determining impact energy is the “Impact Energy (kt)” column. If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant dates by February 28, 2027, or if the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible sources including the European Space Agency (ESA), the International Asteroid Warning Network (IAWN), the U.S. Department of Defense, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus, such as a NASA press release.Trader consensus heavily favors "No" at 98.3% because megaton-scale atmospheric impacts remain statistically rare—occurring only a few times per decade—with no forecasted threats from ongoing near-Earth object surveys as of late August 2026. Extensive sky monitoring by NASA and partners has detected no qualifying bolides in the first eight months of the year, and recent fireballs released energies orders of magnitude lower, such as hundreds of tons of TNT. While improved asteroid detection systems reduce surprise risks, an undetected object could theoretically still produce an impact before year-end, though the probability stays minimal given current observational coverage and historical patterns.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a natural meteoroid (bolide) explodes in Earth's atmosphere with a total impact energy greater than or equal to 1 megaton (1000 kilotons) of TNT equivalent between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The object must be classified as a natural meteoroid; events involving artificial objects or reentry vehicles do not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository: https://cneos.jpl.nasa.gov/fireballs/. The relevant field for determining impact energy is the “Impact Energy (kt)” column. If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant dates by February 28, 2027, or if the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible sources including the European Space Agency (ESA), the International Asteroid Warning Network (IAWN), the U.S. Department of Defense, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus, such as a NASA press release.
The object must be classified as a natural meteoroid; events involving artificial objects or reentry vehicles do not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository: https://cneos.jpl.nasa.gov/fireballs/. The relevant field for determining impact energy is the “Impact Energy (kt)” column. If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant dates by February 28, 2027, or if the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible sources including the European Space Agency (ESA), the International Asteroid Warning Network (IAWN), the U.S. Department of Defense, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus, such as a NASA press release.
Объем
$116,836Дата окончания
1 янв. 2027 г.Открытие рынка
Jan 2, 2026, 2:24 PM ETКто определяет исход
0x65070BE91...Trader consensus heavily favors "No" at 98.3% because megaton-scale atmospheric impacts remain statistically rare—occurring only a few times per decade—with no forecasted threats from ongoing near-Earth object surveys as of late August 2026. Extensive sky monitoring by NASA and partners has detected no qualifying bolides in the first eight months of the year, and recent fireballs released energies orders of magnitude lower, such as hundreds of tons of TNT. While improved asteroid detection systems reduce surprise risks, an undetected object could theoretically still produce an impact before year-end, though the probability stays minimal given current observational coverage and historical patterns.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · Обновлено
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