ByteDance maintains a commanding 90.5% market-implied probability of ranking as the third-largest private company by valuation at end-September 2026, reflecting its established position behind Anthropic and OpenAI in recent secondary-market marks and funding data. Traders cite ByteDance’s consistent $330–600 billion valuation range from tenders and loans, including a recent $29.6 billion syndicated facility and AI-drug unit spin-off, which reinforce stability amid TikTok’s global user base and revenue. AI leaders Anthropic and OpenAI sit well ahead at roughly $850–965 billion, while Databricks, Stripe, and Revolut trail ByteDance by wide margins at $115–190 billion. With resolution only days away, realistic challenges are limited to last-minute secondary trades or regulatory surprises that could shift marks, though current data show no such catalysts on the immediate horizon.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · ОбновленоByteDance 90%
Revolut 7.4%
Databricks 7.3%
Canva 5.9%
НОВОЕ
НОВОЕ
1 окт. 2026 г.
ByteDance
91%
Revolut
7%
Databricks
7%
Canva
6%
Stripe
5%
OpenAI
7%
Anduril
7%
Anthropic
6%
Neuralink
17%
Perplexity
<1%
ByteDance 90%
Revolut 7.4%
Databricks 7.3%
Canva 5.9%
НОВОЕ
НОВОЕ
1 окт. 2026 г.
ByteDance
$317 Объем
91%
Revolut
$115 Объем
7%
Databricks
$136 Объем
7%
Canva
$234 Объем
6%
Stripe
$81 Объем
5%
OpenAI
$131 Объем
7%
Anduril
$124 Объем
7%
Anthropic
$124 Объем
6%
Neuralink
$84 Объем
17%
Perplexity
$180 Объем
<1%
This market will resolve to the listed company with the third largest private market valuation on September 30, 2026.
NPM Prices are published for trading days only and are updated once daily at 1:00 PM ET on the following calendar day.
If NPM has not published relevant data for all business dates in the specified period by 1:00 PM ET on the calendar date following the specified date, this market may remain open until 11:59 PM ET on the third business day following the specified date. If no further data is released by that time, the market will resolve according to the data available.
If NPM ceases publishing relevant data prior to the specified date, this market will resolve based on the NPM data published prior to the cessation of coverage, as well as applicable public market capitalization data following an IPO or direct listing.
If a company completes an IPO or direct listing before the specified date, this market will resolve based on its final NPM valuation published between market creation and the IPO or direct listing date, as this market is based on private market valuations only.
If a listed company merges with or acquires another entity and remains the parent company, no change to resolution methodology applies.
If a listed company is acquired, merges into another entity and is no longer the surviving parent company, or otherwise ceases to exist as an independent entity prior to the end of the period, only the NPM valuation achieved prior to completion of the transaction will be considered for resolution. No transaction, acquisition, or merger consideration will be considered for resolution.
If two or more companies are tied for the third highest valuation, the markets will resolve in favor of the company that achieved that valuation first. If the valuations were achieved on the same day, the market will resolve in favor of the company whose listed name comes first alphabetically.
Revisions to previously published NPM data made after their initial release will not be considered, unless made to correct clearly erroneous data.
The resolution sources for this market are:
https://fe.secondmarket.com/companies/data?start_date=2025-12-31&view=valuation&companies=company-c62b8140-fdeb-428d-a9a6-d04eb3b24b49
https://fe.secondmarket.com/companies/data?start_date=2025-12-31&view=valuation&companies=company-3e197763-4ff8-4d8c-bd1f-cc2792937757
https://fe.secondmarket.com/companies/data?start_date=2025-12-31&view=valuation&companies=company-f364d2ab-34b7-48c9-a2b7-af62da804953
https://fe.secondmarket.com/companies/data?start_date=2025-12-31&view=valuation&companies=company-5e0e75a3-96d6-4893-8f23-9d9bac0ec1db
https://fe.secondmarket.com/companies/data?start_date=2025-12-31&view=valuation&companies=company-53787f17-a704-47a9-895a-cb54833bdb1f
https://fe.secondmarket.com/companies/data?start_date=2025-12-31&view=valuation&companies=company-782c0a32-4727-4097-a40b-9a2602f243e7
https://fe.secondmarket.com/companies/data?start_date=2025-12-31&view=valuation&companies=company-30839e0b-2730-4495-839f-1bf638fa9cca
https://fe.secondmarket.com/companies/data?start_date=2025-12-31&view=valuation&companies=company-802a7f97-3625-4614-a13d-d999cf139330
https://fe.secondmarket.com/companies/data?start_date=2025-12-31&view=valuation&companies=company-70f3c3d1-565b-491a-83df-54d0c8b08186
https://fe.secondmarket.com/companies/data?start_date=2025-12-31&view=valuation&companies=company-6edded11-6786-4392-9695-3cce6fda0de0.ByteDance maintains a commanding 90.5% market-implied probability of ranking as the third-largest private company by valuation at end-September 2026, reflecting its established position behind Anthropic and OpenAI in recent secondary-market marks and funding data. Traders cite ByteDance’s consistent $330–600 billion valuation range from tenders and loans, including a recent $29.6 billion syndicated facility and AI-drug unit spin-off, which reinforce stability amid TikTok’s global user base and revenue. AI leaders Anthropic and OpenAI sit well ahead at roughly $850–965 billion, while Databricks, Stripe, and Revolut trail ByteDance by wide margins at $115–190 billion. With resolution only days away, realistic challenges are limited to last-minute secondary trades or regulatory surprises that could shift marks, though current data show no such catalysts on the immediate horizon.
This market will resolve to the listed company with the third largest private market valuation on September 30, 2026.
NPM Prices are published for trading days only and are updated once daily at 1:00 PM ET on the following calendar day.
If NPM has not published relevant data for all business dates in the specified period by 1:00 PM ET on the calendar date following the specified date, this market may remain open until 11:59 PM ET on the third business day following the specified date. If no further data is released by that time, the market will resolve according to the data available.
If NPM ceases publishing relevant data prior to the specified date, this market will resolve based on the NPM data published prior to the cessation of coverage, as well as applicable public market capitalization data following an IPO or direct listing.
If a company completes an IPO or direct listing before the specified date, this market will resolve based on its final NPM valuation published between market creation and the IPO or direct listing date, as this market is based on private market valuations only.
If a listed company merges with or acquires another entity and remains the parent company, no change to resolution methodology applies.
If a listed company is acquired, merges into another entity and is no longer the surviving parent company, or otherwise ceases to exist as an independent entity prior to the end of the period, only the NPM valuation achieved prior to completion of the transaction will be considered for resolution. No transaction, acquisition, or merger consideration will be considered for resolution.
If two or more companies are tied for the third highest valuation, the markets will resolve in favor of the company that achieved that valuation first. If the valuations were achieved on the same day, the market will resolve in favor of the company whose listed name comes first alphabetically.
Revisions to previously published NPM data made after their initial release will not be considered, unless made to correct clearly erroneous data.
The resolution sources for this market are:
https://fe.secondmarket.com/companies/data?start_date=2025-12-31&view=valuation&companies=company-c62b8140-fdeb-428d-a9a6-d04eb3b24b49
https://fe.secondmarket.com/companies/data?start_date=2025-12-31&view=valuation&companies=company-3e197763-4ff8-4d8c-bd1f-cc2792937757
https://fe.secondmarket.com/companies/data?start_date=2025-12-31&view=valuation&companies=company-f364d2ab-34b7-48c9-a2b7-af62da804953
https://fe.secondmarket.com/companies/data?start_date=2025-12-31&view=valuation&companies=company-5e0e75a3-96d6-4893-8f23-9d9bac0ec1db
https://fe.secondmarket.com/companies/data?start_date=2025-12-31&view=valuation&companies=company-53787f17-a704-47a9-895a-cb54833bdb1f
https://fe.secondmarket.com/companies/data?start_date=2025-12-31&view=valuation&companies=company-782c0a32-4727-4097-a40b-9a2602f243e7
https://fe.secondmarket.com/companies/data?start_date=2025-12-31&view=valuation&companies=company-30839e0b-2730-4495-839f-1bf638fa9cca
https://fe.secondmarket.com/companies/data?start_date=2025-12-31&view=valuation&companies=company-802a7f97-3625-4614-a13d-d999cf139330
https://fe.secondmarket.com/companies/data?start_date=2025-12-31&view=valuation&companies=company-70f3c3d1-565b-491a-83df-54d0c8b08186
https://fe.secondmarket.com/companies/data?start_date=2025-12-31&view=valuation&companies=company-6edded11-6786-4392-9695-3cce6fda0de0.
NPM Prices are published for trading days only and are updated once daily at 1:00 PM ET on the following calendar day.
If NPM has not published relevant data for all business dates in the specified period by 1:00 PM ET on the calendar date following the specified date, this market may remain open until 11:59 PM ET on the third business day following the specified date. If no further data is released by that time, the market will resolve according to the data available.
If NPM ceases publishing relevant data prior to the specified date, this market will resolve based on the NPM data published prior to the cessation of coverage, as well as applicable public market capitalization data following an IPO or direct listing.
If a company completes an IPO or direct listing before the specified date, this market will resolve based on its final NPM valuation published between market creation and the IPO or direct listing date, as this market is based on private market valuations only.
If a listed company merges with or acquires another entity and remains the parent company, no change to resolution methodology applies.
If a listed company is acquired, merges into another entity and is no longer the surviving parent company, or otherwise ceases to exist as an independent entity prior to the end of the period, only the NPM valuation achieved prior to completion of the transaction will be considered for resolution. No transaction, acquisition, or merger consideration will be considered for resolution.
If two or more companies are tied for the third highest valuation, the markets will resolve in favor of the company that achieved that valuation first. If the valuations were achieved on the same day, the market will resolve in favor of the company whose listed name comes first alphabetically.
Revisions to previously published NPM data made after their initial release will not be considered, unless made to correct clearly erroneous data.
The resolution sources for this market are:
https://fe.secondmarket.com/companies/data?start_date=2025-12-31&view=valuation&companies=company-c62b8140-fdeb-428d-a9a6-d04eb3b24b49
https://fe.secondmarket.com/companies/data?start_date=2025-12-31&view=valuation&companies=company-3e197763-4ff8-4d8c-bd1f-cc2792937757
https://fe.secondmarket.com/companies/data?start_date=2025-12-31&view=valuation&companies=company-f364d2ab-34b7-48c9-a2b7-af62da804953
https://fe.secondmarket.com/companies/data?start_date=2025-12-31&view=valuation&companies=company-5e0e75a3-96d6-4893-8f23-9d9bac0ec1db
https://fe.secondmarket.com/companies/data?start_date=2025-12-31&view=valuation&companies=company-53787f17-a704-47a9-895a-cb54833bdb1f
https://fe.secondmarket.com/companies/data?start_date=2025-12-31&view=valuation&companies=company-782c0a32-4727-4097-a40b-9a2602f243e7
https://fe.secondmarket.com/companies/data?start_date=2025-12-31&view=valuation&companies=company-30839e0b-2730-4495-839f-1bf638fa9cca
https://fe.secondmarket.com/companies/data?start_date=2025-12-31&view=valuation&companies=company-802a7f97-3625-4614-a13d-d999cf139330
https://fe.secondmarket.com/companies/data?start_date=2025-12-31&view=valuation&companies=company-70f3c3d1-565b-491a-83df-54d0c8b08186
https://fe.secondmarket.com/companies/data?start_date=2025-12-31&view=valuation&companies=company-6edded11-6786-4392-9695-3cce6fda0de0.
Открытие рынка: Aug 31, 2026, 7:22 PM ET
Объем
$1,526Дата окончания
1 окт. 2026 г.Открытие рынка
Aug 31, 2026, 7:22 PM ETКто определяет исход
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the listed company with the third largest private market valuation on September 30, 2026.
NPM Prices are published for trading days only and are updated once daily at 1:00 PM ET on the following calendar day.
If NPM has not published relevant data for all business dates in the specified period by 1:00 PM ET on the calendar date following the specified date, this market may remain open until 11:59 PM ET on the third business day following the specified date. If no further data is released by that time, the market will resolve according to the data available.
If NPM ceases publishing relevant data prior to the specified date, this market will resolve based on the NPM data published prior to the cessation of coverage, as well as applicable public market capitalization data following an IPO or direct listing.
If a company completes an IPO or direct listing before the specified date, this market will resolve based on its final NPM valuation published between market creation and the IPO or direct listing date, as this market is based on private market valuations only.
If a listed company merges with or acquires another entity and remains the parent company, no change to resolution methodology applies.
If a listed company is acquired, merges into another entity and is no longer the surviving parent company, or otherwise ceases to exist as an independent entity prior to the end of the period, only the NPM valuation achieved prior to completion of the transaction will be considered for resolution. No transaction, acquisition, or merger consideration will be considered for resolution.
If two or more companies are tied for the third highest valuation, the markets will resolve in favor of the company that achieved that valuation first. If the valuations were achieved on the same day, the market will resolve in favor of the company whose listed name comes first alphabetically.
Revisions to previously published NPM data made after their initial release will not be considered, unless made to correct clearly erroneous data.
The resolution sources for this market are:
https://fe.secondmarket.com/companies/data?start_date=2025-12-31&view=valuation&companies=company-c62b8140-fdeb-428d-a9a6-d04eb3b24b49
https://fe.secondmarket.com/companies/data?start_date=2025-12-31&view=valuation&companies=company-3e197763-4ff8-4d8c-bd1f-cc2792937757
https://fe.secondmarket.com/companies/data?start_date=2025-12-31&view=valuation&companies=company-f364d2ab-34b7-48c9-a2b7-af62da804953
https://fe.secondmarket.com/companies/data?start_date=2025-12-31&view=valuation&companies=company-5e0e75a3-96d6-4893-8f23-9d9bac0ec1db
https://fe.secondmarket.com/companies/data?start_date=2025-12-31&view=valuation&companies=company-53787f17-a704-47a9-895a-cb54833bdb1f
https://fe.secondmarket.com/companies/data?start_date=2025-12-31&view=valuation&companies=company-782c0a32-4727-4097-a40b-9a2602f243e7
https://fe.secondmarket.com/companies/data?start_date=2025-12-31&view=valuation&companies=company-30839e0b-2730-4495-839f-1bf638fa9cca
https://fe.secondmarket.com/companies/data?start_date=2025-12-31&view=valuation&companies=company-802a7f97-3625-4614-a13d-d999cf139330
https://fe.secondmarket.com/companies/data?start_date=2025-12-31&view=valuation&companies=company-70f3c3d1-565b-491a-83df-54d0c8b08186
https://fe.secondmarket.com/companies/data?start_date=2025-12-31&view=valuation&companies=company-6edded11-6786-4392-9695-3cce6fda0de0.ByteDance maintains a commanding 90.5% market-implied probability of ranking as the third-largest private company by valuation at end-September 2026, reflecting its established position behind Anthropic and OpenAI in recent secondary-market marks and funding data. Traders cite ByteDance’s consistent $330–600 billion valuation range from tenders and loans, including a recent $29.6 billion syndicated facility and AI-drug unit spin-off, which reinforce stability amid TikTok’s global user base and revenue. AI leaders Anthropic and OpenAI sit well ahead at roughly $850–965 billion, while Databricks, Stripe, and Revolut trail ByteDance by wide margins at $115–190 billion. With resolution only days away, realistic challenges are limited to last-minute secondary trades or regulatory surprises that could shift marks, though current data show no such catalysts on the immediate horizon.
This market will resolve to the listed company with the third largest private market valuation on September 30, 2026.
NPM Prices are published for trading days only and are updated once daily at 1:00 PM ET on the following calendar day.
If NPM has not published relevant data for all business dates in the specified period by 1:00 PM ET on the calendar date following the specified date, this market may remain open until 11:59 PM ET on the third business day following the specified date. If no further data is released by that time, the market will resolve according to the data available.
If NPM ceases publishing relevant data prior to the specified date, this market will resolve based on the NPM data published prior to the cessation of coverage, as well as applicable public market capitalization data following an IPO or direct listing.
If a company completes an IPO or direct listing before the specified date, this market will resolve based on its final NPM valuation published between market creation and the IPO or direct listing date, as this market is based on private market valuations only.
If a listed company merges with or acquires another entity and remains the parent company, no change to resolution methodology applies.
If a listed company is acquired, merges into another entity and is no longer the surviving parent company, or otherwise ceases to exist as an independent entity prior to the end of the period, only the NPM valuation achieved prior to completion of the transaction will be considered for resolution. No transaction, acquisition, or merger consideration will be considered for resolution.
If two or more companies are tied for the third highest valuation, the markets will resolve in favor of the company that achieved that valuation first. If the valuations were achieved on the same day, the market will resolve in favor of the company whose listed name comes first alphabetically.
Revisions to previously published NPM data made after their initial release will not be considered, unless made to correct clearly erroneous data.
The resolution sources for this market are:
https://fe.secondmarket.com/companies/data?start_date=2025-12-31&view=valuation&companies=company-c62b8140-fdeb-428d-a9a6-d04eb3b24b49
https://fe.secondmarket.com/companies/data?start_date=2025-12-31&view=valuation&companies=company-3e197763-4ff8-4d8c-bd1f-cc2792937757
https://fe.secondmarket.com/companies/data?start_date=2025-12-31&view=valuation&companies=company-f364d2ab-34b7-48c9-a2b7-af62da804953
https://fe.secondmarket.com/companies/data?start_date=2025-12-31&view=valuation&companies=company-5e0e75a3-96d6-4893-8f23-9d9bac0ec1db
https://fe.secondmarket.com/companies/data?start_date=2025-12-31&view=valuation&companies=company-53787f17-a704-47a9-895a-cb54833bdb1f
https://fe.secondmarket.com/companies/data?start_date=2025-12-31&view=valuation&companies=company-782c0a32-4727-4097-a40b-9a2602f243e7
https://fe.secondmarket.com/companies/data?start_date=2025-12-31&view=valuation&companies=company-30839e0b-2730-4495-839f-1bf638fa9cca
https://fe.secondmarket.com/companies/data?start_date=2025-12-31&view=valuation&companies=company-802a7f97-3625-4614-a13d-d999cf139330
https://fe.secondmarket.com/companies/data?start_date=2025-12-31&view=valuation&companies=company-70f3c3d1-565b-491a-83df-54d0c8b08186
https://fe.secondmarket.com/companies/data?start_date=2025-12-31&view=valuation&companies=company-6edded11-6786-4392-9695-3cce6fda0de0.
NPM Prices are published for trading days only and are updated once daily at 1:00 PM ET on the following calendar day.
If NPM has not published relevant data for all business dates in the specified period by 1:00 PM ET on the calendar date following the specified date, this market may remain open until 11:59 PM ET on the third business day following the specified date. If no further data is released by that time, the market will resolve according to the data available.
If NPM ceases publishing relevant data prior to the specified date, this market will resolve based on the NPM data published prior to the cessation of coverage, as well as applicable public market capitalization data following an IPO or direct listing.
If a company completes an IPO or direct listing before the specified date, this market will resolve based on its final NPM valuation published between market creation and the IPO or direct listing date, as this market is based on private market valuations only.
If a listed company merges with or acquires another entity and remains the parent company, no change to resolution methodology applies.
If a listed company is acquired, merges into another entity and is no longer the surviving parent company, or otherwise ceases to exist as an independent entity prior to the end of the period, only the NPM valuation achieved prior to completion of the transaction will be considered for resolution. No transaction, acquisition, or merger consideration will be considered for resolution.
If two or more companies are tied for the third highest valuation, the markets will resolve in favor of the company that achieved that valuation first. If the valuations were achieved on the same day, the market will resolve in favor of the company whose listed name comes first alphabetically.
Revisions to previously published NPM data made after their initial release will not be considered, unless made to correct clearly erroneous data.
The resolution sources for this market are:
https://fe.secondmarket.com/companies/data?start_date=2025-12-31&view=valuation&companies=company-c62b8140-fdeb-428d-a9a6-d04eb3b24b49
https://fe.secondmarket.com/companies/data?start_date=2025-12-31&view=valuation&companies=company-3e197763-4ff8-4d8c-bd1f-cc2792937757
https://fe.secondmarket.com/companies/data?start_date=2025-12-31&view=valuation&companies=company-f364d2ab-34b7-48c9-a2b7-af62da804953
https://fe.secondmarket.com/companies/data?start_date=2025-12-31&view=valuation&companies=company-5e0e75a3-96d6-4893-8f23-9d9bac0ec1db
https://fe.secondmarket.com/companies/data?start_date=2025-12-31&view=valuation&companies=company-53787f17-a704-47a9-895a-cb54833bdb1f
https://fe.secondmarket.com/companies/data?start_date=2025-12-31&view=valuation&companies=company-782c0a32-4727-4097-a40b-9a2602f243e7
https://fe.secondmarket.com/companies/data?start_date=2025-12-31&view=valuation&companies=company-30839e0b-2730-4495-839f-1bf638fa9cca
https://fe.secondmarket.com/companies/data?start_date=2025-12-31&view=valuation&companies=company-802a7f97-3625-4614-a13d-d999cf139330
https://fe.secondmarket.com/companies/data?start_date=2025-12-31&view=valuation&companies=company-70f3c3d1-565b-491a-83df-54d0c8b08186
https://fe.secondmarket.com/companies/data?start_date=2025-12-31&view=valuation&companies=company-6edded11-6786-4392-9695-3cce6fda0de0.
Объем
$1,526Дата окончания
1 окт. 2026 г.Открытие рынка
Aug 31, 2026, 7:22 PM ETКто определяет исход
0x69c47De9D...ByteDance maintains a commanding 90.5% market-implied probability of ranking as the third-largest private company by valuation at end-September 2026, reflecting its established position behind Anthropic and OpenAI in recent secondary-market marks and funding data. Traders cite ByteDance’s consistent $330–600 billion valuation range from tenders and loans, including a recent $29.6 billion syndicated facility and AI-drug unit spin-off, which reinforce stability amid TikTok’s global user base and revenue. AI leaders Anthropic and OpenAI sit well ahead at roughly $850–965 billion, while Databricks, Stripe, and Revolut trail ByteDance by wide margins at $115–190 billion. With resolution only days away, realistic challenges are limited to last-minute secondary trades or regulatory surprises that could shift marks, though current data show no such catalysts on the immediate horizon.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · Обновлено
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