Brazil's central bank is positioned for another 25 basis point Selic cut at its June Copom meeting, with traders assigning a 76% implied probability to a decrease that would extend the easing cycle begun in March. The April decision lowered the benchmark rate to 14.50% amid moderating GDP growth and resilient but cooling labor-market conditions, even as headline IPCA inflation accelerated and Focus survey expectations for 2026 rose above 4.5%, well above the 3% target midpoint. Heightened external uncertainty from Middle East geopolitical tensions has tempered the pace of cuts while keeping outright hikes off the table at under 1%. The full April IPCA release and any shift in inflation projections ahead of the mid-June decision remain the key near-term catalysts likely to influence the final market-implied path.