Consistent polling throughout September 2026 placed the SPD at 10-13% in the Berlin state election held on September 20, down sharply from its 18.4% share in the 2023 repeat election as support shifted toward Die Linke and other parties. Multiple institutes, including Infratest dimap, Forschungsgruppe Wahlen, and INSA, recorded the SPD near or below 12% in the final weeks, reflecting sustained weakness for the junior partner in the outgoing CDU-SPD coalition. The official preliminary result of 12.1% aligns with this trend. Trader consensus on the under-13% outcome at 99.5% reflects the narrow gap to the threshold and the absence of any late swing in surveys. Resolution depends on final certified vote shares from the Landeswahlleiter; a material recount or adjustment exceeding the observed margin remains the primary, though improbable, factor that could alter the outcome.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · ОбновленоБолее
<1% вероятность
НОВОЕ
НОВОЕ
31 дек. 2026 г.
Более
<1% вероятность
НОВОЕ
НОВОЕ
31 дек. 2026 г.
Parliamentary elections to elect the Abgeordnetenhaus of Berlin are scheduled to take place in Berlin on September 20, 2026.
This market will resolve to “Over” if SPD wins at least 13% of all valid second votes (Zweitstimme) in the specified election.
This market will resolve to “Under” if SPD wins less than 13% of all valid second votes (Zweitstimme) in the specified election.
This market will resolve solely based on the percentage of valid second votes (Zweitstimme) won by the specified party, defined as the number of valid second votes won by the specified party divided by the total number of valid second votes in the specified election.
Valid vote percentages will be counted only where the Election Office of Berlin (Landeswahlleiter Berlin) attributes them to the aforementioned party. Vote percentages attributed to other parties or electoral designations will not count, regardless of electoral cooperation, endorsements, coalition agreements, or subsequent parliamentary-group arrangements. If the specified party formally merges into a successor party before the election and does not contest separately, the valid vote percentage of the successor party will count towards resolution.
If the results of this election are not definitively known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve 50-50.
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Election Office of Berlin (Landeswahlleiter Berlin https://www.berlin.de/wahlen/).Consistent polling throughout September 2026 placed the SPD at 10-13% in the Berlin state election held on September 20, down sharply from its 18.4% share in the 2023 repeat election as support shifted toward Die Linke and other parties. Multiple institutes, including Infratest dimap, Forschungsgruppe Wahlen, and INSA, recorded the SPD near or below 12% in the final weeks, reflecting sustained weakness for the junior partner in the outgoing CDU-SPD coalition. The official preliminary result of 12.1% aligns with this trend. Trader consensus on the under-13% outcome at 99.5% reflects the narrow gap to the threshold and the absence of any late swing in surveys. Resolution depends on final certified vote shares from the Landeswahlleiter; a material recount or adjustment exceeding the observed margin remains the primary, though improbable, factor that could alter the outcome.
Parliamentary elections to elect the Abgeordnetenhaus of Berlin are scheduled to take place in Berlin on September 20, 2026.
This market will resolve to “Over” if SPD wins at least 13% of all valid second votes (Zweitstimme) in the specified election.
This market will resolve to “Under” if SPD wins less than 13% of all valid second votes (Zweitstimme) in the specified election.
This market will resolve solely based on the percentage of valid second votes (Zweitstimme) won by the specified party, defined as the number of valid second votes won by the specified party divided by the total number of valid second votes in the specified election.
Valid vote percentages will be counted only where the Election Office of Berlin (Landeswahlleiter Berlin) attributes them to the aforementioned party. Vote percentages attributed to other parties or electoral designations will not count, regardless of electoral cooperation, endorsements, coalition agreements, or subsequent parliamentary-group arrangements. If the specified party formally merges into a successor party before the election and does not contest separately, the valid vote percentage of the successor party will count towards resolution.
If the results of this election are not definitively known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve 50-50.
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Election Office of Berlin (Landeswahlleiter Berlin https://www.berlin.de/wahlen/).
This market will resolve to “Over” if SPD wins at least 13% of all valid second votes (Zweitstimme) in the specified election.
This market will resolve to “Under” if SPD wins less than 13% of all valid second votes (Zweitstimme) in the specified election.
This market will resolve solely based on the percentage of valid second votes (Zweitstimme) won by the specified party, defined as the number of valid second votes won by the specified party divided by the total number of valid second votes in the specified election.
Valid vote percentages will be counted only where the Election Office of Berlin (Landeswahlleiter Berlin) attributes them to the aforementioned party. Vote percentages attributed to other parties or electoral designations will not count, regardless of electoral cooperation, endorsements, coalition agreements, or subsequent parliamentary-group arrangements. If the specified party formally merges into a successor party before the election and does not contest separately, the valid vote percentage of the successor party will count towards resolution.
If the results of this election are not definitively known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve 50-50.
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Election Office of Berlin (Landeswahlleiter Berlin https://www.berlin.de/wahlen/).
Открытие рынка: Aug 20, 2026, 2:20 PM ET
Объем
$1,621Дата окончания
1 янв. 2027 г.Открытие рынка
Aug 20, 2026, 2:20 PM ETКто определяет исход
0x65070BE91...Parliamentary elections to elect the Abgeordnetenhaus of Berlin are scheduled to take place in Berlin on September 20, 2026.
This market will resolve to “Over” if SPD wins at least 13% of all valid second votes (Zweitstimme) in the specified election.
This market will resolve to “Under” if SPD wins less than 13% of all valid second votes (Zweitstimme) in the specified election.
This market will resolve solely based on the percentage of valid second votes (Zweitstimme) won by the specified party, defined as the number of valid second votes won by the specified party divided by the total number of valid second votes in the specified election.
Valid vote percentages will be counted only where the Election Office of Berlin (Landeswahlleiter Berlin) attributes them to the aforementioned party. Vote percentages attributed to other parties or electoral designations will not count, regardless of electoral cooperation, endorsements, coalition agreements, or subsequent parliamentary-group arrangements. If the specified party formally merges into a successor party before the election and does not contest separately, the valid vote percentage of the successor party will count towards resolution.
If the results of this election are not definitively known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve 50-50.
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Election Office of Berlin (Landeswahlleiter Berlin https://www.berlin.de/wahlen/).Consistent polling throughout September 2026 placed the SPD at 10-13% in the Berlin state election held on September 20, down sharply from its 18.4% share in the 2023 repeat election as support shifted toward Die Linke and other parties. Multiple institutes, including Infratest dimap, Forschungsgruppe Wahlen, and INSA, recorded the SPD near or below 12% in the final weeks, reflecting sustained weakness for the junior partner in the outgoing CDU-SPD coalition. The official preliminary result of 12.1% aligns with this trend. Trader consensus on the under-13% outcome at 99.5% reflects the narrow gap to the threshold and the absence of any late swing in surveys. Resolution depends on final certified vote shares from the Landeswahlleiter; a material recount or adjustment exceeding the observed margin remains the primary, though improbable, factor that could alter the outcome.
Parliamentary elections to elect the Abgeordnetenhaus of Berlin are scheduled to take place in Berlin on September 20, 2026.
This market will resolve to “Over” if SPD wins at least 13% of all valid second votes (Zweitstimme) in the specified election.
This market will resolve to “Under” if SPD wins less than 13% of all valid second votes (Zweitstimme) in the specified election.
This market will resolve solely based on the percentage of valid second votes (Zweitstimme) won by the specified party, defined as the number of valid second votes won by the specified party divided by the total number of valid second votes in the specified election.
Valid vote percentages will be counted only where the Election Office of Berlin (Landeswahlleiter Berlin) attributes them to the aforementioned party. Vote percentages attributed to other parties or electoral designations will not count, regardless of electoral cooperation, endorsements, coalition agreements, or subsequent parliamentary-group arrangements. If the specified party formally merges into a successor party before the election and does not contest separately, the valid vote percentage of the successor party will count towards resolution.
If the results of this election are not definitively known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve 50-50.
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Election Office of Berlin (Landeswahlleiter Berlin https://www.berlin.de/wahlen/).
This market will resolve to “Over” if SPD wins at least 13% of all valid second votes (Zweitstimme) in the specified election.
This market will resolve to “Under” if SPD wins less than 13% of all valid second votes (Zweitstimme) in the specified election.
This market will resolve solely based on the percentage of valid second votes (Zweitstimme) won by the specified party, defined as the number of valid second votes won by the specified party divided by the total number of valid second votes in the specified election.
Valid vote percentages will be counted only where the Election Office of Berlin (Landeswahlleiter Berlin) attributes them to the aforementioned party. Vote percentages attributed to other parties or electoral designations will not count, regardless of electoral cooperation, endorsements, coalition agreements, or subsequent parliamentary-group arrangements. If the specified party formally merges into a successor party before the election and does not contest separately, the valid vote percentage of the successor party will count towards resolution.
If the results of this election are not definitively known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve 50-50.
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Election Office of Berlin (Landeswahlleiter Berlin https://www.berlin.de/wahlen/).
Объем
$1,621Дата окончания
1 янв. 2027 г.Открытие рынка
Aug 20, 2026, 2:20 PM ETКто определяет исход
0x65070BE91...Consistent polling throughout September 2026 placed the SPD at 10-13% in the Berlin state election held on September 20, down sharply from its 18.4% share in the 2023 repeat election as support shifted toward Die Linke and other parties. Multiple institutes, including Infratest dimap, Forschungsgruppe Wahlen, and INSA, recorded the SPD near or below 12% in the final weeks, reflecting sustained weakness for the junior partner in the outgoing CDU-SPD coalition. The official preliminary result of 12.1% aligns with this trend. Trader consensus on the under-13% outcome at 99.5% reflects the narrow gap to the threshold and the absence of any late swing in surveys. Resolution depends on final certified vote shares from the Landeswahlleiter; a material recount or adjustment exceeding the observed margin remains the primary, though improbable, factor that could alter the outcome.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · Обновлено
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