Elon Musk’s established posting cadence of roughly 25–40 main-feed posts, quotes, and reposts per day positions the 160-179 range as the clear market favorite at 59% implied probability for the August 11–18 window. Traders tracking X activity around Tesla production updates, SpaceX launch cadence, Grok iterations, and real-time commentary see steady volume without the spikes that would push totals into the 200s. Recent days have shown consistent engagement on AI efficiency and vehicle manufacturing milestones, aligning with historical weekly clusters in the 140–180 band. With only one day left before resolution, late surges from breaking news remain the main swing factor that could nudge the count toward the 180-199 bucket at 26.5%.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · Обновлено160-179 59%
180-199 26%
140-159 11.1%
200-219 3.5%
$1,809,039 Объем
$1,809,039 Объем
18 авг. 2026 г.
140-159
11%
160-179
59%
180-199
26%
200-219
3%
220-239
1%
240-259
<1%
260-279
<1%
280-299
<1%
300-319
<1%
320-339
<1%
340-359
<1%
360-379
<1%
380-399
<1%
400-419
<1%
420-439
<1%
440-459
<1%
460-479
<1%
480-499
<1%
500+
<1%
160-179 59%
180-199 26%
140-159 11.1%
200-219 3.5%
$1,809,039 Объем
$1,809,039 Объем
18 авг. 2026 г.
140-159
$270,255 Объем
11%
160-179
$155,184 Объем
59%
180-199
$118,420 Объем
26%
200-219
$106,316 Объем
3%
220-239
$94,897 Объем
1%
240-259
$117,067 Объем
<1%
260-279
$100,712 Объем
<1%
280-299
$91,008 Объем
<1%
300-319
$83,049 Объем
<1%
320-339
$43,368 Объем
<1%
340-359
$42,323 Объем
<1%
360-379
$29,969 Объем
<1%
380-399
$25,087 Объем
<1%
400-419
$22,118 Объем
<1%
420-439
$15,300 Объем
<1%
440-459
$15,044 Объем
<1%
460-479
$6,196 Объем
<1%
480-499
$5,696 Объем
<1%
500+
$43,869 Объем
<1%
This market will resolve according to the number of times Elon Musk (@elonmusk), posts on X from August 11 12:00 PM ET to August 18, 2026 12:00 PM ET.
For the purposes of this market, only main feed posts, quote posts and reposts will count.
Replies will NOT count towards the total - however, replies on the main feed such as https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1786073478711353576 will be counted by the tracker.
Deleted posts will count as long as they remain available long enough to be captured by the tracker (~5 minutes).
Community reposts which are not counted by the tracker not count toward the total.
The resolution source for this market is the 'Post Counter' figure for posts found at https://xtracker.polymarket.com. Individual posts can be viewed by clicking "Export Data". If the tracker does not update correctly in accordance with the rules, X itself may be used as a secondary resolution source.Elon Musk’s established posting cadence of roughly 25–40 main-feed posts, quotes, and reposts per day positions the 160-179 range as the clear market favorite at 59% implied probability for the August 11–18 window. Traders tracking X activity around Tesla production updates, SpaceX launch cadence, Grok iterations, and real-time commentary see steady volume without the spikes that would push totals into the 200s. Recent days have shown consistent engagement on AI efficiency and vehicle manufacturing milestones, aligning with historical weekly clusters in the 140–180 band. With only one day left before resolution, late surges from breaking news remain the main swing factor that could nudge the count toward the 180-199 bucket at 26.5%.
This market will resolve according to the number of times Elon Musk (@elonmusk), posts on X from August 11 12:00 PM ET to August 18, 2026 12:00 PM ET.
For the purposes of this market, only main feed posts, quote posts and reposts will count.
Replies will NOT count towards the total - however, replies on the main feed such as https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1786073478711353576 will be counted by the tracker.
Deleted posts will count as long as they remain available long enough to be captured by the tracker (~5 minutes).
Community reposts which are not counted by the tracker not count toward the total.
The resolution source for this market is the 'Post Counter' figure for posts found at https://xtracker.polymarket.com. Individual posts can be viewed by clicking "Export Data". If the tracker does not update correctly in accordance with the rules, X itself may be used as a secondary resolution source.
For the purposes of this market, only main feed posts, quote posts and reposts will count.
Replies will NOT count towards the total - however, replies on the main feed such as https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1786073478711353576 will be counted by the tracker.
Deleted posts will count as long as they remain available long enough to be captured by the tracker (~5 minutes).
Community reposts which are not counted by the tracker not count toward the total.
The resolution source for this market is the 'Post Counter' figure for posts found at https://xtracker.polymarket.com. Individual posts can be viewed by clicking "Export Data". If the tracker does not update correctly in accordance with the rules, X itself may be used as a secondary resolution source.
Открытие рынка: Aug 8, 2026, 12:00 AM ET
Объем
$1,809,039Дата окончания
18 авг. 2026 г.Открытие рынка
Aug 8, 2026, 12:00 AM ETИсточник определения исхода
https://x.com/elonmuskResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the number of times Elon Musk (@elonmusk), posts on X from August 11 12:00 PM ET to August 18, 2026 12:00 PM ET.
For the purposes of this market, only main feed posts, quote posts and reposts will count.
Replies will NOT count towards the total - however, replies on the main feed such as https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1786073478711353576 will be counted by the tracker.
Deleted posts will count as long as they remain available long enough to be captured by the tracker (~5 minutes).
Community reposts which are not counted by the tracker not count toward the total.
The resolution source for this market is the 'Post Counter' figure for posts found at https://xtracker.polymarket.com. Individual posts can be viewed by clicking "Export Data". If the tracker does not update correctly in accordance with the rules, X itself may be used as a secondary resolution source.Elon Musk’s established posting cadence of roughly 25–40 main-feed posts, quotes, and reposts per day positions the 160-179 range as the clear market favorite at 59% implied probability for the August 11–18 window. Traders tracking X activity around Tesla production updates, SpaceX launch cadence, Grok iterations, and real-time commentary see steady volume without the spikes that would push totals into the 200s. Recent days have shown consistent engagement on AI efficiency and vehicle manufacturing milestones, aligning with historical weekly clusters in the 140–180 band. With only one day left before resolution, late surges from breaking news remain the main swing factor that could nudge the count toward the 180-199 bucket at 26.5%.
This market will resolve according to the number of times Elon Musk (@elonmusk), posts on X from August 11 12:00 PM ET to August 18, 2026 12:00 PM ET.
For the purposes of this market, only main feed posts, quote posts and reposts will count.
Replies will NOT count towards the total - however, replies on the main feed such as https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1786073478711353576 will be counted by the tracker.
Deleted posts will count as long as they remain available long enough to be captured by the tracker (~5 minutes).
Community reposts which are not counted by the tracker not count toward the total.
The resolution source for this market is the 'Post Counter' figure for posts found at https://xtracker.polymarket.com. Individual posts can be viewed by clicking "Export Data". If the tracker does not update correctly in accordance with the rules, X itself may be used as a secondary resolution source.
For the purposes of this market, only main feed posts, quote posts and reposts will count.
Replies will NOT count towards the total - however, replies on the main feed such as https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1786073478711353576 will be counted by the tracker.
Deleted posts will count as long as they remain available long enough to be captured by the tracker (~5 minutes).
Community reposts which are not counted by the tracker not count toward the total.
The resolution source for this market is the 'Post Counter' figure for posts found at https://xtracker.polymarket.com. Individual posts can be viewed by clicking "Export Data". If the tracker does not update correctly in accordance with the rules, X itself may be used as a secondary resolution source.
Объем
$1,809,039Дата окончания
18 авг. 2026 г.Открытие рынка
Aug 8, 2026, 12:00 AM ETИсточник определения исхода
https://x.com/elonmuskResolver
0x69c47De9D...Elon Musk’s established posting cadence of roughly 25–40 main-feed posts, quotes, and reposts per day positions the 160-179 range as the clear market favorite at 59% implied probability for the August 11–18 window. Traders tracking X activity around Tesla production updates, SpaceX launch cadence, Grok iterations, and real-time commentary see steady volume without the spikes that would push totals into the 200s. Recent days have shown consistent engagement on AI efficiency and vehicle manufacturing milestones, aligning with historical weekly clusters in the 140–180 band. With only one day left before resolution, late surges from breaking news remain the main swing factor that could nudge the count toward the 180-199 bucket at 26.5%.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · Обновлено
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