Elon Musk’s established pattern of high-volume posting on X, often exceeding 15–25 times daily during periods of product discussion or platform updates, underpins the overwhelming trader consensus around the 40–64 tweet range for August 13–15. Recent activity, including multiple replies and announcements tied to the For You algorithm release and Grok capabilities on the 15th, aligns with this trajectory and reinforces market-implied odds near 100%. Historical precedent shows Musk rarely dips below 30–40 posts across similar three-day windows absent major travel or regulatory constraints, while the “wisdom of crowds” in prediction markets rewards accurate tracking of his cadence. An upset below 40 would require an unusually quiet stretch, such as focused offline commitments or self-imposed limits, which have occurred infrequently.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · Обновлено40-64 100.0%
<40 <1%
65–89 <1%
90-114 <1%
$672,559 Объем
$672,559 Объем
15 авг. 2026 г.
<40
Нет
40-64
Да
65–89
Нет
90-114
Нет
115-139
Нет
140-164
Нет
165-189
Нет
190-214
Нет
215-239
Нет
240+
Нет
40-64 100.0%
<40 <1%
65–89 <1%
90-114 <1%
$672,559 Объем
$672,559 Объем
15 авг. 2026 г.
<40
$67,314 Объем
Нет
40-64
$182,042 Объем
Да
65–89
$131,438 Объем
Нет
90-114
$157,204 Объем
Нет
115-139
$67,368 Объем
Нет
140-164
$29,963 Объем
Нет
165-189
$22,072 Объем
Нет
190-214
$5,952 Объем
Нет
215-239
$4,949 Объем
Нет
240+
$4,257 Объем
Нет
This market will resolve according to the number of times Elon Musk (@elonmusk), posts on X from August 13 12:00 PM ET to August 15, 2026 12:00 PM ET.
For the purposes of this market, only main feed posts, quote posts and reposts will count.
Replies will NOT count towards the total - however, replies on the main feed such as https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1786073478711353576 will be counted by the tracker.
Deleted posts will count as long as they remain available long enough to be captured by the tracker (~5 minutes).
Community reposts which are not counted by the tracker not count toward the total.
The resolution source for this market is the 'Post Counter' figure for posts found at https://xtracker.polymarket.com. Individual posts can be viewed by clicking "Export Data". If the tracker does not update correctly in accordance with the rules, X itself may be used as a secondary resolution source.Elon Musk’s established pattern of high-volume posting on X, often exceeding 15–25 times daily during periods of product discussion or platform updates, underpins the overwhelming trader consensus around the 40–64 tweet range for August 13–15. Recent activity, including multiple replies and announcements tied to the For You algorithm release and Grok capabilities on the 15th, aligns with this trajectory and reinforces market-implied odds near 100%. Historical precedent shows Musk rarely dips below 30–40 posts across similar three-day windows absent major travel or regulatory constraints, while the “wisdom of crowds” in prediction markets rewards accurate tracking of his cadence. An upset below 40 would require an unusually quiet stretch, such as focused offline commitments or self-imposed limits, which have occurred infrequently.
This market will resolve according to the number of times Elon Musk (@elonmusk), posts on X from August 13 12:00 PM ET to August 15, 2026 12:00 PM ET.
For the purposes of this market, only main feed posts, quote posts and reposts will count.
Replies will NOT count towards the total - however, replies on the main feed such as https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1786073478711353576 will be counted by the tracker.
Deleted posts will count as long as they remain available long enough to be captured by the tracker (~5 minutes).
Community reposts which are not counted by the tracker not count toward the total.
The resolution source for this market is the 'Post Counter' figure for posts found at https://xtracker.polymarket.com. Individual posts can be viewed by clicking "Export Data". If the tracker does not update correctly in accordance with the rules, X itself may be used as a secondary resolution source.
For the purposes of this market, only main feed posts, quote posts and reposts will count.
Replies will NOT count towards the total - however, replies on the main feed such as https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1786073478711353576 will be counted by the tracker.
Deleted posts will count as long as they remain available long enough to be captured by the tracker (~5 minutes).
Community reposts which are not counted by the tracker not count toward the total.
The resolution source for this market is the 'Post Counter' figure for posts found at https://xtracker.polymarket.com. Individual posts can be viewed by clicking "Export Data". If the tracker does not update correctly in accordance with the rules, X itself may be used as a secondary resolution source.
Открытие рынка: Aug 10, 2026, 12:07 PM ET
Объем
$672,559Дата окончания
15 авг. 2026 г.Открытие рынка
Aug 10, 2026, 12:07 PM ETИсточник определения исхода
https://x.com/elonmuskResolver
0x69c47De9D...Предложенный исход: Да
Спор отсутствует
Окончательный исход: Да
This market will resolve according to the number of times Elon Musk (@elonmusk), posts on X from August 13 12:00 PM ET to August 15, 2026 12:00 PM ET.
For the purposes of this market, only main feed posts, quote posts and reposts will count.
Replies will NOT count towards the total - however, replies on the main feed such as https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1786073478711353576 will be counted by the tracker.
Deleted posts will count as long as they remain available long enough to be captured by the tracker (~5 minutes).
Community reposts which are not counted by the tracker not count toward the total.
The resolution source for this market is the 'Post Counter' figure for posts found at https://xtracker.polymarket.com. Individual posts can be viewed by clicking "Export Data". If the tracker does not update correctly in accordance with the rules, X itself may be used as a secondary resolution source.Elon Musk’s established pattern of high-volume posting on X, often exceeding 15–25 times daily during periods of product discussion or platform updates, underpins the overwhelming trader consensus around the 40–64 tweet range for August 13–15. Recent activity, including multiple replies and announcements tied to the For You algorithm release and Grok capabilities on the 15th, aligns with this trajectory and reinforces market-implied odds near 100%. Historical precedent shows Musk rarely dips below 30–40 posts across similar three-day windows absent major travel or regulatory constraints, while the “wisdom of crowds” in prediction markets rewards accurate tracking of his cadence. An upset below 40 would require an unusually quiet stretch, such as focused offline commitments or self-imposed limits, which have occurred infrequently.
This market will resolve according to the number of times Elon Musk (@elonmusk), posts on X from August 13 12:00 PM ET to August 15, 2026 12:00 PM ET.
For the purposes of this market, only main feed posts, quote posts and reposts will count.
Replies will NOT count towards the total - however, replies on the main feed such as https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1786073478711353576 will be counted by the tracker.
Deleted posts will count as long as they remain available long enough to be captured by the tracker (~5 minutes).
Community reposts which are not counted by the tracker not count toward the total.
The resolution source for this market is the 'Post Counter' figure for posts found at https://xtracker.polymarket.com. Individual posts can be viewed by clicking "Export Data". If the tracker does not update correctly in accordance with the rules, X itself may be used as a secondary resolution source.
For the purposes of this market, only main feed posts, quote posts and reposts will count.
Replies will NOT count towards the total - however, replies on the main feed such as https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1786073478711353576 will be counted by the tracker.
Deleted posts will count as long as they remain available long enough to be captured by the tracker (~5 minutes).
Community reposts which are not counted by the tracker not count toward the total.
The resolution source for this market is the 'Post Counter' figure for posts found at https://xtracker.polymarket.com. Individual posts can be viewed by clicking "Export Data". If the tracker does not update correctly in accordance with the rules, X itself may be used as a secondary resolution source.
Объем
$672,559Дата окончания
15 авг. 2026 г.Открытие рынка
Aug 10, 2026, 12:07 PM ETИсточник определения исхода
https://x.com/elonmuskResolver
0x69c47De9D...Предложенный исход: Да
Спор отсутствует
Окончательный исход: Да
Elon Musk’s established pattern of high-volume posting on X, often exceeding 15–25 times daily during periods of product discussion or platform updates, underpins the overwhelming trader consensus around the 40–64 tweet range for August 13–15. Recent activity, including multiple replies and announcements tied to the For You algorithm release and Grok capabilities on the 15th, aligns with this trajectory and reinforces market-implied odds near 100%. Historical precedent shows Musk rarely dips below 30–40 posts across similar three-day windows absent major travel or regulatory constraints, while the “wisdom of crowds” in prediction markets rewards accurate tracking of his cadence. An upset below 40 would require an unusually quiet stretch, such as focused offline commitments or self-imposed limits, which have occurred infrequently.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · Обновлено
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