Elon Musk’s elevated posting cadence on X drives the current market, with recent weekday averages of 35–44 tweets and lower weekend rates pointing toward totals clustering in the 380–500 range or higher for the eight-day window. Traders price 500+ at 40% because his volume has trended upward historically and can spike on business, political, or SpaceX developments, yet the tight grouping of probabilities across 380–499 bins reflects uncertainty around weekend slowdowns and any sudden quiet periods. The closely matched mid-range outcomes highlight how daily fluctuations and event-driven bursts create overlapping implied probabilities, with lower brackets discounted due to his established baseline activity. No major scheduled catalysts appear imminent for late July, leaving the resolution dependent on his typical engagement patterns.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · ОбновленоИлон Маск # tweets 21 июля - 28 июля 2026?
Илон Маск # tweets 21 июля - 28 июля 2026?
500+ 79%
420-439 50%
440-459 50%
460-479 50%
$21,510 Объем
$21,510 Объем
<20
<1%
20-39
<1%
40-59
<1%
60-79
1%
80-99
3%
100-119
4%
120-139
17%
140-159
19%
160-179
22%
180-199
22%
200-219
21%
220-239
17%
240-259
17%
260-279
10%
280-299
14%
300-319
15%
320-339
12%
340-359
12%
360-379
23%
380-399
44%
400-419
45%
420-439
50%
440-459
50%
460-479
50%
480-499
50%
500+
79%
500+ 79%
420-439 50%
440-459 50%
460-479 50%
$21,510 Объем
$21,510 Объем
<20
<1%
20-39
<1%
40-59
<1%
60-79
1%
80-99
3%
100-119
4%
120-139
17%
140-159
19%
160-179
22%
180-199
22%
200-219
21%
220-239
17%
240-259
17%
260-279
10%
280-299
14%
300-319
15%
320-339
12%
340-359
12%
360-379
23%
380-399
44%
400-419
45%
420-439
50%
440-459
50%
460-479
50%
480-499
50%
500+
79%
For the purposes of this market, only main feed posts, quote posts and reposts will count.
Replies will NOT count towards the total - however, replies on the main feed such as https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1786073478711353576 will be counted by the tracker.
Deleted posts will count as long as they remain available long enough to be captured by the tracker (~5 minutes).
Community reposts which are not counted by the tracker not count toward the total.
The resolution source for this market is the 'Post Counter' figure for posts found at https://xtracker.polymarket.com. Individual posts can be viewed by clicking "Export Data". If the tracker does not update correctly in accordance with the rules, X itself may be used as a secondary resolution source.
Открытие рынка: Jul 18, 2026, 12:00 AM ET
Источник определения исхода
https://x.com/elonmuskResolver
0x69c47De9D...For the purposes of this market, only main feed posts, quote posts and reposts will count.
Replies will NOT count towards the total - however, replies on the main feed such as https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1786073478711353576 will be counted by the tracker.
Deleted posts will count as long as they remain available long enough to be captured by the tracker (~5 minutes).
Community reposts which are not counted by the tracker not count toward the total.
The resolution source for this market is the 'Post Counter' figure for posts found at https://xtracker.polymarket.com. Individual posts can be viewed by clicking "Export Data". If the tracker does not update correctly in accordance with the rules, X itself may be used as a secondary resolution source.
Источник определения исхода
https://x.com/elonmuskResolver
0x69c47De9D...Elon Musk’s elevated posting cadence on X drives the current market, with recent weekday averages of 35–44 tweets and lower weekend rates pointing toward totals clustering in the 380–500 range or higher for the eight-day window. Traders price 500+ at 40% because his volume has trended upward historically and can spike on business, political, or SpaceX developments, yet the tight grouping of probabilities across 380–499 bins reflects uncertainty around weekend slowdowns and any sudden quiet periods. The closely matched mid-range outcomes highlight how daily fluctuations and event-driven bursts create overlapping implied probabilities, with lower brackets discounted due to his established baseline activity. No major scheduled catalysts appear imminent for late July, leaving the resolution dependent on his typical engagement patterns.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · Обновлено
Не доверяй внешним ссылкам.
Не доверяй внешним ссылкам.
Часто задаваемые вопросы