Recent FBI execution of search warrants, including seizure of Eric Swalwell's electronic devices at San Francisco airport and a search of his Washington home in mid-August 2026, has advanced the federal sexual misconduct investigation tied to multiple allegations. These actions, along with parallel state probes by the Manhattan District Attorney and Los Angeles Sheriff's Department, confirm active evidence collection but reflect standard procedural steps rather than imminent charging decisions. Federal and state processes typically involve extended review of seized materials, potential grand jury proceedings, and measured timelines before any indictment of a former member of Congress, especially with only weeks remaining until the September 30 resolution date. Trader consensus assigning 77% probability to no charges aligns with these investigative realities and the absence of announced indictments or arrests to date.