Israel's established practice of intercepting Gaza-bound aid vessels in international waters, as demonstrated by the April 2026 seizure of multiple boats from the Global Sumud Flotilla near Crete, continues to shape trader assessments. The fleet's recent relaunch in mid-May from Turkish and Greek ports, involving dozens of vessels carrying activists and symbolic supplies, has not altered this pattern, with organizers confirming ongoing navigation toward the region amid active naval monitoring. Historical enforcement of the maritime blockade, combined with the physical distance and short timeline remaining until May 31, supports the current implied probability that the flotilla will not reach Israeli territorial waters.