Israel’s naval enforcement of the Gaza blockade continues to shape the outlook for the current Global Sumud Flotilla and Freedom Flotilla Coalition vessels. Following the April 30 interception in international waters near Crete that halted dozens of boats and detained over 170 activists, remaining vessels regrouped in Turkey and relaunched on May 14, yet remain hundreds of nautical miles from the destination with only two weeks until the May 31 deadline. Trader consensus at 99 percent for no arrival by that date reflects the established pattern of rapid interception well short of Israeli territorial waters and the absence of any recent diplomatic shift that would alter enforcement. Scenarios that could still change the result include an unforeseen suspension of naval operations or undetected transit through restricted zones before the resolution window closes.