Iran maintains de facto control over Greater Tunb Island in the Strait of Hormuz, which it seized in 1971 alongside Abu Musa and Lesser Tunb amid a longstanding territorial dispute with the United Arab Emirates. Recent U.S. strikes in July 2026 targeted Iranian cruise missile storage, launch sites, and coastal defenses on the island as part of broader escalation, degrading some military capabilities but leaving Iranian administration and presence intact. The island’s strategic position supports monitoring of shipping lanes, and UAE diplomatic efforts through the UN, GCC, and potential ICJ referral continue without altering on-the-ground realities. Any shift in control would depend on further military developments or negotiated outcomes in the ongoing regional conflict.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · ОбновленоОстров Большой Томб больше не находится под контролем Ирана...?
Остров Большой Томб больше не находится под контролем Ирана...?
$50,409 Объем
31 авг. 2026 г.
31 августа
1%
$50,409 Объем
31 августа
$27,900 Объем
1%
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Greater Tunb Island is no longer under Iranian control by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
"No longer under the control of Iran" means that Iran no longer exercises primary governmental or military control over Greater Tunb Island, and another state, occupying force, or internationally backed authority has established control over the island.
Temporary raids, isolated landings, special operations, bombardment, sabotage, naval presence offshore, or temporary disruption of Iranian activity will not qualify on their own.
An announcement, threat, or claim that Iran has lost control will not qualify without actual control being established.
If control changes pursuant to a negotiated settlement, ceasefire term, surrender, or transfer agreement, this will qualify only once actual control has been established on the island.
If control over Greater Tunb Island is contested, unclear, disputed, or not sufficiently established by the resolution date, this will not qualify, and the market will resolve to "No".
The primary resolution source will be official statements from the relevant governments and militaries, along with a consensus of credible reporting.Iran maintains de facto control over Greater Tunb Island in the Strait of Hormuz, which it seized in 1971 alongside Abu Musa and Lesser Tunb amid a longstanding territorial dispute with the United Arab Emirates. Recent U.S. strikes in July 2026 targeted Iranian cruise missile storage, launch sites, and coastal defenses on the island as part of broader escalation, degrading some military capabilities but leaving Iranian administration and presence intact. The island’s strategic position supports monitoring of shipping lanes, and UAE diplomatic efforts through the UN, GCC, and potential ICJ referral continue without altering on-the-ground realities. Any shift in control would depend on further military developments or negotiated outcomes in the ongoing regional conflict.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Greater Tunb Island is no longer under Iranian control by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
"No longer under the control of Iran" means that Iran no longer exercises primary governmental or military control over Greater Tunb Island, and another state, occupying force, or internationally backed authority has established control over the island.
Temporary raids, isolated landings, special operations, bombardment, sabotage, naval presence offshore, or temporary disruption of Iranian activity will not qualify on their own.
An announcement, threat, or claim that Iran has lost control will not qualify without actual control being established.
If control changes pursuant to a negotiated settlement, ceasefire term, surrender, or transfer agreement, this will qualify only once actual control has been established on the island.
If control over Greater Tunb Island is contested, unclear, disputed, or not sufficiently established by the resolution date, this will not qualify, and the market will resolve to "No".
The primary resolution source will be official statements from the relevant governments and militaries, along with a consensus of credible reporting.
"No longer under the control of Iran" means that Iran no longer exercises primary governmental or military control over Greater Tunb Island, and another state, occupying force, or internationally backed authority has established control over the island.
Temporary raids, isolated landings, special operations, bombardment, sabotage, naval presence offshore, or temporary disruption of Iranian activity will not qualify on their own.
An announcement, threat, or claim that Iran has lost control will not qualify without actual control being established.
If control changes pursuant to a negotiated settlement, ceasefire term, surrender, or transfer agreement, this will qualify only once actual control has been established on the island.
If control over Greater Tunb Island is contested, unclear, disputed, or not sufficiently established by the resolution date, this will not qualify, and the market will resolve to "No".
The primary resolution source will be official statements from the relevant governments and militaries, along with a consensus of credible reporting.
Открытие рынка: Jul 20, 2026, 9:12 PM ET
Объем
$50,409Дата окончания
31 авг. 2026 г.Открытие рынка
Jul 20, 2026, 9:12 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if Greater Tunb Island is no longer under Iranian control by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
"No longer under the control of Iran" means that Iran no longer exercises primary governmental or military control over Greater Tunb Island, and another state, occupying force, or internationally backed authority has established control over the island.
Temporary raids, isolated landings, special operations, bombardment, sabotage, naval presence offshore, or temporary disruption of Iranian activity will not qualify on their own.
An announcement, threat, or claim that Iran has lost control will not qualify without actual control being established.
If control changes pursuant to a negotiated settlement, ceasefire term, surrender, or transfer agreement, this will qualify only once actual control has been established on the island.
If control over Greater Tunb Island is contested, unclear, disputed, or not sufficiently established by the resolution date, this will not qualify, and the market will resolve to "No".
The primary resolution source will be official statements from the relevant governments and militaries, along with a consensus of credible reporting.Iran maintains de facto control over Greater Tunb Island in the Strait of Hormuz, which it seized in 1971 alongside Abu Musa and Lesser Tunb amid a longstanding territorial dispute with the United Arab Emirates. Recent U.S. strikes in July 2026 targeted Iranian cruise missile storage, launch sites, and coastal defenses on the island as part of broader escalation, degrading some military capabilities but leaving Iranian administration and presence intact. The island’s strategic position supports monitoring of shipping lanes, and UAE diplomatic efforts through the UN, GCC, and potential ICJ referral continue without altering on-the-ground realities. Any shift in control would depend on further military developments or negotiated outcomes in the ongoing regional conflict.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Greater Tunb Island is no longer under Iranian control by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
"No longer under the control of Iran" means that Iran no longer exercises primary governmental or military control over Greater Tunb Island, and another state, occupying force, or internationally backed authority has established control over the island.
Temporary raids, isolated landings, special operations, bombardment, sabotage, naval presence offshore, or temporary disruption of Iranian activity will not qualify on their own.
An announcement, threat, or claim that Iran has lost control will not qualify without actual control being established.
If control changes pursuant to a negotiated settlement, ceasefire term, surrender, or transfer agreement, this will qualify only once actual control has been established on the island.
If control over Greater Tunb Island is contested, unclear, disputed, or not sufficiently established by the resolution date, this will not qualify, and the market will resolve to "No".
The primary resolution source will be official statements from the relevant governments and militaries, along with a consensus of credible reporting.
"No longer under the control of Iran" means that Iran no longer exercises primary governmental or military control over Greater Tunb Island, and another state, occupying force, or internationally backed authority has established control over the island.
Temporary raids, isolated landings, special operations, bombardment, sabotage, naval presence offshore, or temporary disruption of Iranian activity will not qualify on their own.
An announcement, threat, or claim that Iran has lost control will not qualify without actual control being established.
If control changes pursuant to a negotiated settlement, ceasefire term, surrender, or transfer agreement, this will qualify only once actual control has been established on the island.
If control over Greater Tunb Island is contested, unclear, disputed, or not sufficiently established by the resolution date, this will not qualify, and the market will resolve to "No".
The primary resolution source will be official statements from the relevant governments and militaries, along with a consensus of credible reporting.
Объем
$50,409Дата окончания
31 авг. 2026 г.Открытие рынка
Jul 20, 2026, 9:12 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Iran maintains de facto control over Greater Tunb Island in the Strait of Hormuz, which it seized in 1971 alongside Abu Musa and Lesser Tunb amid a longstanding territorial dispute with the United Arab Emirates. Recent U.S. strikes in July 2026 targeted Iranian cruise missile storage, launch sites, and coastal defenses on the island as part of broader escalation, degrading some military capabilities but leaving Iranian administration and presence intact. The island’s strategic position supports monitoring of shipping lanes, and UAE diplomatic efforts through the UN, GCC, and potential ICJ referral continue without altering on-the-ground realities. Any shift in control would depend on further military developments or negotiated outcomes in the ongoing regional conflict.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · Обновлено
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