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icon for Grok 4.6 released on...?
Технологии·AI

Grok 4.6 released on...?

icon for Grok 4.6 released on...?
Технологии·AI

Grok 4.6 released on...?

August 23 77%

August 22 65%

August 29 64%

August 30 46%

Polymarket
НОВОЕ

August 23 77%

August 22 65%

August 29 64%

August 30 46%

Polymarket
НОВОЕ

August 11 or earlier

$464 Объем

<1%

August 12

$0 Объем

29%

August 13

$0 Объем

38%

August 14

$0 Объем

33%

August 15

$125 Объем

40%

August 16

$125 Объем

40%

August 17

$0 Объем

35%

August 18

$44 Объем

41%

August 19

$0 Объем

36%

August 20

$0 Объем

41%

August 21

$60 Объем

42%

August 22

$94 Объем

65%

August 23

$94 Объем

77%

August 24

$0 Объем

37%

August 25

$39 Объем

42%

August 26

$0 Объем

34%

August 27

$0 Объем

34%

August 28

$41 Объем

35%

August 29

$79 Объем

64%

August 30

$94 Объем

46%

August 31

$81 Объем

40%

Not released by August 31

$20 Объем

7%

This market will resolve according to the date (ET) on which SpaceXAI's Grok 4.6 model is made available to the general public. Grok 4.6 refers to a product explicitly named Grok 4.6, or a variant that is recognized as a direct successor to Grok 4.5, similar to the progression from Grok 4.4 to Grok 4.5 (e.g., Grok 4.6, Grok 4.75, etc., would qualify toward a "Yes" resolution to this market). Qualifying releases of task-specialized models or cost-efficiency variants will count for this market. Products labeled as a new flagship generation Grok 5 or similar will NOT qualify. For this market to resolve to "Yes," a qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must be either clearly defined and publicly announced by SpaceXAI as being accessible to the general public or otherwise made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled within the company’s official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from SpaceXAI, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.

This market will resolve according to the date (ET) on which SpaceXAI's Grok 4.6 model is made available to the general public.

Grok 4.6 refers to a product explicitly named Grok 4.6, or a variant that is recognized as a direct successor to Grok 4.5, similar to the progression from Grok 4.4 to Grok 4.5 (e.g., Grok 4.6, Grok 4.75, etc., would qualify toward a "Yes" resolution to this market).

Qualifying releases of task-specialized models or cost-efficiency variants will count for this market. Products labeled as a new flagship generation Grok 5 or similar will NOT qualify.

For this market to resolve to "Yes," a qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice.

The release must be either clearly defined and publicly announced by SpaceXAI as being accessible to the general public or otherwise made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled within the company’s official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.

The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from SpaceXAI, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.
Объем
$1,359
Дата окончания
31 авг. 2026 г.
Открытие рынка
Aug 10, 2026, 6:02 PM ET

Resolver

0x69c47De9D...
This market will resolve according to the date (ET) on which SpaceXAI's Grok 4.6 model is made available to the general public. Grok 4.6 refers to a product explicitly named Grok 4.6, or a variant that is recognized as a direct successor to Grok 4.5, similar to the progression from Grok 4.4 to Grok 4.5 (e.g., Grok 4.6, Grok 4.75, etc., would qualify toward a "Yes" resolution to this market). Qualifying releases of task-specialized models or cost-efficiency variants will count for this market. Products labeled as a new flagship generation Grok 5 or similar will NOT qualify. For this market to resolve to "Yes," a qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must be either clearly defined and publicly announced by SpaceXAI as being accessible to the general public or otherwise made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled within the company’s official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from SpaceXAI, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.

Предложенный исход: No

Окно спора

Окончательный

This market will resolve according to the date (ET) on which SpaceXAI's Grok 4.6 model is made available to the general public. Grok 4.6 refers to a product explicitly named Grok 4.6, or a variant that is recognized as a direct successor to Grok 4.5, similar to the progression from Grok 4.4 to Grok 4.5 (e.g., Grok 4.6, Grok 4.75, etc., would qualify toward a "Yes" resolution to this market). Qualifying releases of task-specialized models or cost-efficiency variants will count for this market. Products labeled as a new flagship generation Grok 5 or similar will NOT qualify. For this market to resolve to "Yes," a qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must be either clearly defined and publicly announced by SpaceXAI as being accessible to the general public or otherwise made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled within the company’s official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from SpaceXAI, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.

This market will resolve according to the date (ET) on which SpaceXAI's Grok 4.6 model is made available to the general public.

Grok 4.6 refers to a product explicitly named Grok 4.6, or a variant that is recognized as a direct successor to Grok 4.5, similar to the progression from Grok 4.4 to Grok 4.5 (e.g., Grok 4.6, Grok 4.75, etc., would qualify toward a "Yes" resolution to this market).

Qualifying releases of task-specialized models or cost-efficiency variants will count for this market. Products labeled as a new flagship generation Grok 5 or similar will NOT qualify.

For this market to resolve to "Yes," a qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice.

The release must be either clearly defined and publicly announced by SpaceXAI as being accessible to the general public or otherwise made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled within the company’s official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.

The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from SpaceXAI, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.
Объем
$1,359
Дата окончания
31 авг. 2026 г.
Открытие рынка
Aug 10, 2026, 6:02 PM ET

Resolver

0x69c47De9D...
This market will resolve according to the date (ET) on which SpaceXAI's Grok 4.6 model is made available to the general public. Grok 4.6 refers to a product explicitly named Grok 4.6, or a variant that is recognized as a direct successor to Grok 4.5, similar to the progression from Grok 4.4 to Grok 4.5 (e.g., Grok 4.6, Grok 4.75, etc., would qualify toward a "Yes" resolution to this market). Qualifying releases of task-specialized models or cost-efficiency variants will count for this market. Products labeled as a new flagship generation Grok 5 or similar will NOT qualify. For this market to resolve to "Yes," a qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must be either clearly defined and publicly announced by SpaceXAI as being accessible to the general public or otherwise made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled within the company’s official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from SpaceXAI, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.

Предложенный исход: No

Окно спора

Окончательный

Связанные

icon for Grok 4.6 выпущен к 21 августа 2026 года?

Grok 4.6 выпущен к 21 августа 2026 года?

94%
Да
icon for Достигнет ли следующая версия модели Grok (4.6+) как минимум 1440 баллов к 31 декабря 2026 года?

Достигнет ли следующая версия модели Grok (4.6+) как минимум 1440 баллов к 31 декабря 2026 года?

94%
Да
icon for Достигнет ли наивысший балл, полученный моделью SpaceXAI Grok на Последнем экзамене человечества в 2026 году, 45% или выше?

Достигнет ли наивысший балл, полученный моделью SpaceXAI Grok на Последнем экзамене человечества в 2026 году, 45% или выше?

87%
Да

Не доверяй внешним ссылкам.

Часто задаваемые вопросы

«Grok 4.6 released on...?» — это рынок прогнозов на Polymarket с 22 возможными исходами, где трейдеры покупают и продают акции на основе своих прогнозов. Текущий лидирующий исход — «August 21» с 42%, за ним следует «August 25» с 42%. Цены отражают вероятности сообщества в реальном времени. Например, акция по цене 42¢ означает, что рынок коллективно оценивает вероятность этого исхода в 42%. Эти коэффициенты постоянно меняются. Акции правильного исхода можно обменять на $1 каждую при разрешении рынка.

«Grok 4.6 released on...?» — недавно созданный рынок на Polymarket, запущен Aug 11, 2026. Как ранний рынок, это твоя возможность быть среди первых трейдеров, устанавливающих коэффициенты и формирующих начальные ценовые сигналы. Ты также можешь добавить эту страницу в закладки, чтобы следить за объёмом и активностью торгов.

Чтобы торговать на «Grok 4.6 released on...?», просмотри 22 доступных исходов на этой странице. Каждый исход показывает текущую цену, представляющую подразумеваемую вероятность рынка. Чтобы занять позицию, выбери исход, который считаешь наиболее вероятным, выбери «Да» для торговли в его пользу или «Нет» для торговли против, введи сумму и нажми «Торговать». Если твой выбранный исход окажется верным, твои акции «Да» принесут $1 каждая. Если нет — $0. Ты также можешь продать акции до разрешения.

Текущий фаворит для «Grok 4.6 released on...?» — «August 21» с 42%, что означает, что рынок оценивает вероятность этого исхода в 42%. Следующий ближайший исход — «August 25» с 42%. Эти коэффициенты обновляются в реальном времени по мере покупки и продажи акций. Заходи чаще или добавь страницу в закладки.

Правила разрешения «Grok 4.6 released on...?» точно определяют, что должно произойти, чтобы каждый исход был объявлен победителем, включая официальные источники данных, используемые для определения результата. Ты можешь просмотреть полные критерии разрешения в разделе «Правила» на этой странице над комментариями. Мы рекомендуем внимательно прочитать правила перед торговлей, так как они определяют точные условия, особые случаи и источники.