Forecast uncertainty in numerical weather prediction models is the main driver behind the tight clustering of market-implied odds around 35°C (33.5%) and 36°C (31.5%) for Guangzhou’s maximum temperature on September 21. Ensemble guidance from global and regional models shows minor differences in boundary-layer moisture, low-level wind convergence from the South China Sea, and afternoon cloud cover, each capable of shifting the peak by 1°C. Historical September climatology places typical daily maxima near 32–34°C, yet recent warm anomalies and urban heat-island amplification support the slight upward bias traders have priced in. Official China Meteorological Administration station readings tomorrow will resolve the market, with any late-day sea-breeze strengthening or convective development likely to determine whether the outcome settles at 35°C or edges into the 36°C bin.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · ОбновленоСамая высокая температура в Гуанчжоу 21 сентября?
Самая высокая температура в Гуанчжоу 21 сентября?
35°C 34%
36°C 32%
34°C 18%
37°C или выше 9%
НОВОЕ
НОВОЕ
21 сент. 2026 г.
27°C или ниже
<1%
28°C
<1%
29°C
<1%
30°C
1%
31°C
2%
32°C
3%
33°C
7%
34°C
18%
35°C
34%
36°C
32%
37°C или выше
9%
35°C 34%
36°C 32%
34°C 18%
37°C или выше 9%
НОВОЕ
НОВОЕ
21 сент. 2026 г.
27°C или ниже
$267 Объем
<1%
28°C
$111 Объем
<1%
29°C
$111 Объем
<1%
30°C
$266 Объем
1%
31°C
$8 Объем
2%
32°C
$104 Объем
3%
33°C
$62 Объем
7%
34°C
$524 Объем
18%
35°C
$360 Объем
34%
36°C
$380 Объем
32%
37°C или выше
$837 Объем
9%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Guangzhou Baiyun International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 21 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zggg
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Forecast uncertainty in numerical weather prediction models is the main driver behind the tight clustering of market-implied odds around 35°C (33.5%) and 36°C (31.5%) for Guangzhou’s maximum temperature on September 21. Ensemble guidance from global and regional models shows minor differences in boundary-layer moisture, low-level wind convergence from the South China Sea, and afternoon cloud cover, each capable of shifting the peak by 1°C. Historical September climatology places typical daily maxima near 32–34°C, yet recent warm anomalies and urban heat-island amplification support the slight upward bias traders have priced in. Official China Meteorological Administration station readings tomorrow will resolve the market, with any late-day sea-breeze strengthening or convective development likely to determine whether the outcome settles at 35°C or edges into the 36°C bin.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Guangzhou Baiyun International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 21 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zggg
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zggg
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Открытие рынка: Sep 19, 2026, 12:58 AM ET
Объем
$3,030Дата окончания
21 сент. 2026 г.Открытие рынка
Sep 19, 2026, 12:58 AM ETИсточник определения исхода
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zgggКто определяет исход
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Guangzhou Baiyun International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 21 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zggg
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Forecast uncertainty in numerical weather prediction models is the main driver behind the tight clustering of market-implied odds around 35°C (33.5%) and 36°C (31.5%) for Guangzhou’s maximum temperature on September 21. Ensemble guidance from global and regional models shows minor differences in boundary-layer moisture, low-level wind convergence from the South China Sea, and afternoon cloud cover, each capable of shifting the peak by 1°C. Historical September climatology places typical daily maxima near 32–34°C, yet recent warm anomalies and urban heat-island amplification support the slight upward bias traders have priced in. Official China Meteorological Administration station readings tomorrow will resolve the market, with any late-day sea-breeze strengthening or convective development likely to determine whether the outcome settles at 35°C or edges into the 36°C bin.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Guangzhou Baiyun International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 21 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zggg
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zggg
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Объем
$3,030Дата окончания
21 сент. 2026 г.Открытие рынка
Sep 19, 2026, 12:58 AM ETИсточник определения исхода
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zgggКто определяет исход
0x69c47De9D...Forecast uncertainty in numerical weather prediction models is the main driver behind the tight clustering of market-implied odds around 35°C (33.5%) and 36°C (31.5%) for Guangzhou’s maximum temperature on September 21. Ensemble guidance from global and regional models shows minor differences in boundary-layer moisture, low-level wind convergence from the South China Sea, and afternoon cloud cover, each capable of shifting the peak by 1°C. Historical September climatology places typical daily maxima near 32–34°C, yet recent warm anomalies and urban heat-island amplification support the slight upward bias traders have priced in. Official China Meteorological Administration station readings tomorrow will resolve the market, with any late-day sea-breeze strengthening or convective development likely to determine whether the outcome settles at 35°C or edges into the 36°C bin.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · Обновлено
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