Current ECMWF and GFS ensemble guidance for Madrid on June 18 shows a tight cluster of maximum temperatures around 34–36 °C under a stable high-pressure regime with clear skies and strong diurnal heating. This narrow spread underpins the near-even market-implied probabilities for 35 °C (42.5 %) versus 36 °C (37.5 %), with smaller shares for adjacent outcomes. Subtle differences in boundary-layer moisture, wind speeds, and exact timing of peak insolation—plus the potential influence of a modest Saharan air-mass intrusion—account for the residual uncertainty between these two leading resolutions. AEMET’s next official forecast update and the 18z model cycles in the coming hours will likely tighten or shift the consensus ahead of market resolution.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · ОбновленоHighest temperature in Madrid on June 18?
Highest temperature in Madrid on June 18?
35°C 43%
36°C 38%
34°C 12%
37°C 5.3%
НОВОЕ
НОВОЕ
18 июн. 2026 г.
31°C or below
<1%
32°C
<1%
33°C
2%
34°C
12%
35°C
43%
36°C
38%
37°C
5%
38°C
<1%
39°C
<1%
40°C
<1%
41°C or higher
<1%
35°C 43%
36°C 38%
34°C 12%
37°C 5.3%
НОВОЕ
НОВОЕ
18 июн. 2026 г.
31°C or below
$612 Объем
<1%
32°C
$562 Объем
<1%
33°C
$322 Объем
2%
34°C
$1,447 Объем
12%
35°C
$953 Объем
43%
36°C
$1,522 Объем
38%
37°C
$609 Объем
5%
38°C
$403 Объем
<1%
39°C
$404 Объем
<1%
40°C
$302 Объем
<1%
41°C or higher
$302 Объем
<1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 18 Jun '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Current ECMWF and GFS ensemble guidance for Madrid on June 18 shows a tight cluster of maximum temperatures around 34–36 °C under a stable high-pressure regime with clear skies and strong diurnal heating. This narrow spread underpins the near-even market-implied probabilities for 35 °C (42.5 %) versus 36 °C (37.5 %), with smaller shares for adjacent outcomes. Subtle differences in boundary-layer moisture, wind speeds, and exact timing of peak insolation—plus the potential influence of a modest Saharan air-mass intrusion—account for the residual uncertainty between these two leading resolutions. AEMET’s next official forecast update and the 18z model cycles in the coming hours will likely tighten or shift the consensus ahead of market resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 18 Jun '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Открытие рынка: Jun 16, 2026, 1:12 AM ET
Объем
$7,437Дата окончания
18 июн. 2026 г.Открытие рынка
Jun 16, 2026, 1:12 AM ETИсточник определения исхода
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMDResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 18 Jun '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Current ECMWF and GFS ensemble guidance for Madrid on June 18 shows a tight cluster of maximum temperatures around 34–36 °C under a stable high-pressure regime with clear skies and strong diurnal heating. This narrow spread underpins the near-even market-implied probabilities for 35 °C (42.5 %) versus 36 °C (37.5 %), with smaller shares for adjacent outcomes. Subtle differences in boundary-layer moisture, wind speeds, and exact timing of peak insolation—plus the potential influence of a modest Saharan air-mass intrusion—account for the residual uncertainty between these two leading resolutions. AEMET’s next official forecast update and the 18z model cycles in the coming hours will likely tighten or shift the consensus ahead of market resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 18 Jun '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Объем
$7,437Дата окончания
18 июн. 2026 г.Открытие рынка
Jun 16, 2026, 1:12 AM ETИсточник определения исхода
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMDResolver
0x69c47De9D...Current ECMWF and GFS ensemble guidance for Madrid on June 18 shows a tight cluster of maximum temperatures around 34–36 °C under a stable high-pressure regime with clear skies and strong diurnal heating. This narrow spread underpins the near-even market-implied probabilities for 35 °C (42.5 %) versus 36 °C (37.5 %), with smaller shares for adjacent outcomes. Subtle differences in boundary-layer moisture, wind speeds, and exact timing of peak insolation—plus the potential influence of a modest Saharan air-mass intrusion—account for the residual uncertainty between these two leading resolutions. AEMET’s next official forecast update and the 18z model cycles in the coming hours will likely tighten or shift the consensus ahead of market resolution.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · Обновлено
Не доверяй внешним ссылкам.
Не доверяй внешним ссылкам.
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