Recent ensemble forecasts from the Korea Meteorological Administration and global models show Seoul's June 17 maximum likely falling between 28–30°C, with 28°C edging ahead due to expected afternoon cloud cover limiting peak insolation. Steering flow from the northwest and moderate boundary-layer moisture are keeping temperatures below early-summer climatological peaks, while model spread in low-level humidity and timing of any weak frontal passage creates the narrow 36.5%–30% split between the top two outcomes. Historical June maxima in Seoul average near 26–27°C early in the month, so current guidance reflects a modest warm anomaly tempered by variable cloudiness. Updated KMA short-range runs and 12–18 UTC model cycles over the next 48 hours will be the key catalysts for any further tightening.