**Persistent cloud cover and frequent showers are moderating daytime heating in Taipei for June 15, anchoring trader expectations around 27–29°C.** Taiwan’s Central Weather Administration currently forecasts a high of 29°C with a 60% chance of rain, consistent with the broader pattern of an unusually wet June that has suppressed temperatures below seasonal averages of 31–33°C. Overcast conditions reduce incoming solar radiation while evaporative cooling from precipitation further limits peak warmth, creating the narrow spread seen in market prices where 28°C leads at 31.5% implied probability. Model guidance shows limited divergence on steering patterns and moisture, but small shifts in rain timing or intensity could tip the outcome between 27°C and 29°C. Historical June data indicate that similar cloudy, rainy setups typically cap highs 2–4°C below clear-sky norms, supporting the current clustering of probabilities and explaining why outcomes above 30°C remain at just 20.5% combined.