Recent model consensus from AEMET and ECMWF-aligned forecasts points to clear skies, light northeasterly winds, and a stable high-pressure ridge supporting a daily maximum near 32–33 °C in Madrid on September 22. This setup favors strong daytime heating under low humidity and minimal cloud cover, consistent with Madrid’s continental climate where September afternoons often peak 6–8 °C above average. Historical analogs show a 34 °C record from 1983, while current runs remain 1–2 °C below that threshold, explaining why traders assign 61 % implied probability to 34 °C and 34.5 % to 33 °C. The next AEMET and GFS updates, plus any shift in steering flow, represent the key near-term catalysts that could move resolution odds.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · ОбновленоСамая высокая температура в Мадриде 22 сентября?
Самая высокая температура в Мадриде 22 сентября?
34°C 60%
33°C 35%
35°C 18%
31°C 6%
НОВОЕ
НОВОЕ
22 сент. 2026 г.
28°C или ниже
2%
29°C
4%
30°C
4%
31°C
6%
32°C
6%
33°C
35%
34°C
60%
35°C
18%
36°C
2%
37°C
2%
38°C или выше
2%
34°C 60%
33°C 35%
35°C 18%
31°C 6%
НОВОЕ
НОВОЕ
22 сент. 2026 г.
28°C или ниже
$0 Объем
2%
29°C
$0 Объем
4%
30°C
$0 Объем
4%
31°C
$0 Объем
6%
32°C
$17 Объем
6%
33°C
$8 Объем
35%
34°C
$80 Объем
60%
35°C
$0 Объем
18%
36°C
$0 Объем
2%
37°C
$0 Объем
2%
38°C или выше
$0 Объем
2%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 22 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lemd
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent model consensus from AEMET and ECMWF-aligned forecasts points to clear skies, light northeasterly winds, and a stable high-pressure ridge supporting a daily maximum near 32–33 °C in Madrid on September 22. This setup favors strong daytime heating under low humidity and minimal cloud cover, consistent with Madrid’s continental climate where September afternoons often peak 6–8 °C above average. Historical analogs show a 34 °C record from 1983, while current runs remain 1–2 °C below that threshold, explaining why traders assign 61 % implied probability to 34 °C and 34.5 % to 33 °C. The next AEMET and GFS updates, plus any shift in steering flow, represent the key near-term catalysts that could move resolution odds.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 22 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lemd
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lemd
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Открытие рынка: Sep 20, 2026, 12:57 AM ET
Объем
$106Дата окончания
22 сент. 2026 г.Открытие рынка
Sep 20, 2026, 12:57 AM ETИсточник определения исхода
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lemdКто определяет исход
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 22 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lemd
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent model consensus from AEMET and ECMWF-aligned forecasts points to clear skies, light northeasterly winds, and a stable high-pressure ridge supporting a daily maximum near 32–33 °C in Madrid on September 22. This setup favors strong daytime heating under low humidity and minimal cloud cover, consistent with Madrid’s continental climate where September afternoons often peak 6–8 °C above average. Historical analogs show a 34 °C record from 1983, while current runs remain 1–2 °C below that threshold, explaining why traders assign 61 % implied probability to 34 °C and 34.5 % to 33 °C. The next AEMET and GFS updates, plus any shift in steering flow, represent the key near-term catalysts that could move resolution odds.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 22 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lemd
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lemd
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Объем
$106Дата окончания
22 сент. 2026 г.Открытие рынка
Sep 20, 2026, 12:57 AM ETИсточник определения исхода
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lemdКто определяет исход
0x69c47De9D...Recent model consensus from AEMET and ECMWF-aligned forecasts points to clear skies, light northeasterly winds, and a stable high-pressure ridge supporting a daily maximum near 32–33 °C in Madrid on September 22. This setup favors strong daytime heating under low humidity and minimal cloud cover, consistent with Madrid’s continental climate where September afternoons often peak 6–8 °C above average. Historical analogs show a 34 °C record from 1983, while current runs remain 1–2 °C below that threshold, explaining why traders assign 61 % implied probability to 34 °C and 34.5 % to 33 °C. The next AEMET and GFS updates, plus any shift in steering flow, represent the key near-term catalysts that could move resolution odds.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · Обновлено
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Не доверяй внешним ссылкам.
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