Ongoing US-Iran military tensions, centered on control of the Strait of Hormuz, continue to shape trader views on whether Hormuz Island could shift from Iranian authority. Iran has used IRGC forces to enforce shipping restrictions, attack noncompliant vessels, and maintain operational presence around the island and nearby sites like Qeshm since the February 2026 conflict onset. A April ceasefire and June memorandum of understanding temporarily eased restrictions but collapsed amid July attacks on tankers, prompting renewed US strikes on Iranian coastal defenses, missile sites, and a naval blockade. As of mid-August 2026, Iran rejects external claims to the waterway, while US statements signal potential further pressure; no verified territorial incursions or seizures of the island have occurred. Negotiations or escalation timelines could influence resolution.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · ОбновленоОстров Ормуз больше не находится под контролем Ирана...?
Остров Ормуз больше не находится под контролем Ирана...?
$61,669 Объем
31 авг. 2026 г.
31 августа
1%
$61,669 Объем
31 августа
$49,933 Объем
1%
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Hormuz Island is no longer under Iranian control by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
"No longer under the control of Iran" means that Iran no longer exercises primary governmental or military control over Hormuz Island, and another state, occupying force, or internationally backed authority has established control over the island.
Temporary raids, isolated landings, special operations, bombardment, sabotage, naval presence offshore, or temporary disruption of Iranian activity will not qualify on their own.
An announcement, threat, or claim that Iran has lost control will not qualify without actual control being established.
If control changes pursuant to a negotiated settlement, ceasefire term, surrender, or transfer agreement, this will qualify only once actual control has been established on the island.
If control over Hormuz Island is contested, unclear, disputed, or not sufficiently established by the resolution date, this will not qualify, and the market will resolve to "No".
The primary resolution source will be official statements from the relevant governments and militaries, along with a consensus of credible reporting.Ongoing US-Iran military tensions, centered on control of the Strait of Hormuz, continue to shape trader views on whether Hormuz Island could shift from Iranian authority. Iran has used IRGC forces to enforce shipping restrictions, attack noncompliant vessels, and maintain operational presence around the island and nearby sites like Qeshm since the February 2026 conflict onset. A April ceasefire and June memorandum of understanding temporarily eased restrictions but collapsed amid July attacks on tankers, prompting renewed US strikes on Iranian coastal defenses, missile sites, and a naval blockade. As of mid-August 2026, Iran rejects external claims to the waterway, while US statements signal potential further pressure; no verified territorial incursions or seizures of the island have occurred. Negotiations or escalation timelines could influence resolution.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Hormuz Island is no longer under Iranian control by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
"No longer under the control of Iran" means that Iran no longer exercises primary governmental or military control over Hormuz Island, and another state, occupying force, or internationally backed authority has established control over the island.
Temporary raids, isolated landings, special operations, bombardment, sabotage, naval presence offshore, or temporary disruption of Iranian activity will not qualify on their own.
An announcement, threat, or claim that Iran has lost control will not qualify without actual control being established.
If control changes pursuant to a negotiated settlement, ceasefire term, surrender, or transfer agreement, this will qualify only once actual control has been established on the island.
If control over Hormuz Island is contested, unclear, disputed, or not sufficiently established by the resolution date, this will not qualify, and the market will resolve to "No".
The primary resolution source will be official statements from the relevant governments and militaries, along with a consensus of credible reporting.
"No longer under the control of Iran" means that Iran no longer exercises primary governmental or military control over Hormuz Island, and another state, occupying force, or internationally backed authority has established control over the island.
Temporary raids, isolated landings, special operations, bombardment, sabotage, naval presence offshore, or temporary disruption of Iranian activity will not qualify on their own.
An announcement, threat, or claim that Iran has lost control will not qualify without actual control being established.
If control changes pursuant to a negotiated settlement, ceasefire term, surrender, or transfer agreement, this will qualify only once actual control has been established on the island.
If control over Hormuz Island is contested, unclear, disputed, or not sufficiently established by the resolution date, this will not qualify, and the market will resolve to "No".
The primary resolution source will be official statements from the relevant governments and militaries, along with a consensus of credible reporting.
Открытие рынка: Jul 20, 2026, 9:13 PM ET
Объем
$61,669Дата окончания
31 авг. 2026 г.Открытие рынка
Jul 20, 2026, 9:13 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if Hormuz Island is no longer under Iranian control by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
"No longer under the control of Iran" means that Iran no longer exercises primary governmental or military control over Hormuz Island, and another state, occupying force, or internationally backed authority has established control over the island.
Temporary raids, isolated landings, special operations, bombardment, sabotage, naval presence offshore, or temporary disruption of Iranian activity will not qualify on their own.
An announcement, threat, or claim that Iran has lost control will not qualify without actual control being established.
If control changes pursuant to a negotiated settlement, ceasefire term, surrender, or transfer agreement, this will qualify only once actual control has been established on the island.
If control over Hormuz Island is contested, unclear, disputed, or not sufficiently established by the resolution date, this will not qualify, and the market will resolve to "No".
The primary resolution source will be official statements from the relevant governments and militaries, along with a consensus of credible reporting.Ongoing US-Iran military tensions, centered on control of the Strait of Hormuz, continue to shape trader views on whether Hormuz Island could shift from Iranian authority. Iran has used IRGC forces to enforce shipping restrictions, attack noncompliant vessels, and maintain operational presence around the island and nearby sites like Qeshm since the February 2026 conflict onset. A April ceasefire and June memorandum of understanding temporarily eased restrictions but collapsed amid July attacks on tankers, prompting renewed US strikes on Iranian coastal defenses, missile sites, and a naval blockade. As of mid-August 2026, Iran rejects external claims to the waterway, while US statements signal potential further pressure; no verified territorial incursions or seizures of the island have occurred. Negotiations or escalation timelines could influence resolution.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Hormuz Island is no longer under Iranian control by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
"No longer under the control of Iran" means that Iran no longer exercises primary governmental or military control over Hormuz Island, and another state, occupying force, or internationally backed authority has established control over the island.
Temporary raids, isolated landings, special operations, bombardment, sabotage, naval presence offshore, or temporary disruption of Iranian activity will not qualify on their own.
An announcement, threat, or claim that Iran has lost control will not qualify without actual control being established.
If control changes pursuant to a negotiated settlement, ceasefire term, surrender, or transfer agreement, this will qualify only once actual control has been established on the island.
If control over Hormuz Island is contested, unclear, disputed, or not sufficiently established by the resolution date, this will not qualify, and the market will resolve to "No".
The primary resolution source will be official statements from the relevant governments and militaries, along with a consensus of credible reporting.
"No longer under the control of Iran" means that Iran no longer exercises primary governmental or military control over Hormuz Island, and another state, occupying force, or internationally backed authority has established control over the island.
Temporary raids, isolated landings, special operations, bombardment, sabotage, naval presence offshore, or temporary disruption of Iranian activity will not qualify on their own.
An announcement, threat, or claim that Iran has lost control will not qualify without actual control being established.
If control changes pursuant to a negotiated settlement, ceasefire term, surrender, or transfer agreement, this will qualify only once actual control has been established on the island.
If control over Hormuz Island is contested, unclear, disputed, or not sufficiently established by the resolution date, this will not qualify, and the market will resolve to "No".
The primary resolution source will be official statements from the relevant governments and militaries, along with a consensus of credible reporting.
Объем
$61,669Дата окончания
31 авг. 2026 г.Открытие рынка
Jul 20, 2026, 9:13 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Ongoing US-Iran military tensions, centered on control of the Strait of Hormuz, continue to shape trader views on whether Hormuz Island could shift from Iranian authority. Iran has used IRGC forces to enforce shipping restrictions, attack noncompliant vessels, and maintain operational presence around the island and nearby sites like Qeshm since the February 2026 conflict onset. A April ceasefire and June memorandum of understanding temporarily eased restrictions but collapsed amid July attacks on tankers, prompting renewed US strikes on Iranian coastal defenses, missile sites, and a naval blockade. As of mid-August 2026, Iran rejects external claims to the waterway, while US statements signal potential further pressure; no verified territorial incursions or seizures of the island have occurred. Negotiations or escalation timelines could influence resolution.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · Обновлено
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