Trump's second-term approval has declined steadily from an initial 47% in early 2025 to recent averages of 37-40%, with individual polls reaching new lows near 33% in August 2026. Key drivers include sustained disapproval of his handling of the Iran conflict, which has coincided with higher fuel prices, and broader economic concerns over tariffs, trade, and cost of living. Support has eroded notably among younger voters and some independents, while remaining polarized along partisan lines. The November 2026 midterms represent a near-term catalyst that could further shift sentiment depending on legislative outcomes, economic data, or foreign policy developments. Traders monitor polling aggregates and issue-specific surveys for signals on whether ratings stabilize or drop further before year-end.