Trump’s approval rating has declined steadily through his second term, reaching lows around 33-34% in recent August 2026 polling amid the ongoing Iran conflict that began in late February and prompted U.S. strikes. Key pressures include sharply higher gasoline prices, voter dissatisfaction with foreign policy, the economy, and inflation, plus erosion of support among independents, younger voters, and some Republicans. The November 2026 midterms now loom as a potential catalyst, with generic ballot trends and historical patterns suggesting further downside risk if economic conditions or the conflict persist without resolution. Trader focus centers on whether these factors produce new lows before year-end or stabilize near current levels.