The indirect Senate election on September 27 renews 77 of Les Républicains’ 131 seats through an electoral college of municipal and departmental councilors whose composition reflects recent local results favoring traditional right and center parties. Revised internal forecasts now anticipate net losses of three to five seats rather than the earlier nine-to-ten estimate, centering trader probabilities on the 121-128 range as localized RN and UDR challenges in departments such as Alpes-Maritimes, Bouches-du-Rhône, Var, and Vaucluse create offsetting risks of larger or smaller declines. Right-wing fragmentation, candidate unity, and left-wing divisions further compress expected outcomes around modest erosion. Results in those contested constituencies, final alliance patterns among grand électeurs, and any late shifts in turnout could widen the distribution beyond the current tight clustering.