Recent Houthi threats and attacks have kept Bab el-Mandeb transits suppressed, with daily averages around 31–32 vessels in late July data from Kpler and Clarksons—well below pre-crisis levels near 50. Escalations in early August, including missile strikes on vessels and the Mocha port, have reinforced rerouting incentives around the Cape of Good Hope, elevating war-risk insurance premiums and voyage costs. These security dynamics position sub-180 weekly totals as the leading implied probability at 45.5%, reflecting trader consensus on sustained avoidance amid unresolved regional tensions. Higher bins remain discounted due to limited near-term de-escalation signals ahead of the week’s close.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · ОбновленоСколько судов пройдет через Баб-эль-Мандебский пролив 10 августа?
Сколько судов пройдет через Баб-эль-Мандебский пролив 10 августа?
<180 49%
180-199 31%
220+ 11%
200-219 11%
НОВОЕ
НОВОЕ
16 авг. 2026 г.
<180
49%
180-199
31%
200-219
11%
220+
11%
<180 49%
180-199 31%
220+ 11%
200-219 11%
НОВОЕ
НОВОЕ
16 авг. 2026 г.
<180
$4,631 Объем
49%
180-199
$1,502 Объем
31%
200-219
$495 Объем
11%
220+
$1,994 Объем
11%
This market will resolve according to the total number of transit calls that IMF Portwatch reports for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait for all days from August 10, 2026, through August 16, 2026, inclusive.
Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as all relevant data has been published. If the relevant data is not published within 14 calendar days of the specified date, this market will resolve based on the most recent data published up to that point.
In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF Portwatch differs from alternative sources.
Only revisions to previously published data points made before all relevant data has been published will be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF PortWatch, specifically the “Arrivals of Ships” data published for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/6b1814d64903461b98144a6cc25eb79c.Recent Houthi threats and attacks have kept Bab el-Mandeb transits suppressed, with daily averages around 31–32 vessels in late July data from Kpler and Clarksons—well below pre-crisis levels near 50. Escalations in early August, including missile strikes on vessels and the Mocha port, have reinforced rerouting incentives around the Cape of Good Hope, elevating war-risk insurance premiums and voyage costs. These security dynamics position sub-180 weekly totals as the leading implied probability at 45.5%, reflecting trader consensus on sustained avoidance amid unresolved regional tensions. Higher bins remain discounted due to limited near-term de-escalation signals ahead of the week’s close.
This market will resolve according to the total number of transit calls that IMF Portwatch reports for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait for all days from August 10, 2026, through August 16, 2026, inclusive.
Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as all relevant data has been published. If the relevant data is not published within 14 calendar days of the specified date, this market will resolve based on the most recent data published up to that point.
In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF Portwatch differs from alternative sources.
Only revisions to previously published data points made before all relevant data has been published will be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF PortWatch, specifically the “Arrivals of Ships” data published for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/6b1814d64903461b98144a6cc25eb79c.
Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as all relevant data has been published. If the relevant data is not published within 14 calendar days of the specified date, this market will resolve based on the most recent data published up to that point.
In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF Portwatch differs from alternative sources.
Only revisions to previously published data points made before all relevant data has been published will be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF PortWatch, specifically the “Arrivals of Ships” data published for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/6b1814d64903461b98144a6cc25eb79c.
Открытие рынка: Aug 8, 2026, 12:07 PM ET
Объем
$8,605Дата окончания
16 авг. 2026 г.Открытие рынка
Aug 8, 2026, 12:07 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the total number of transit calls that IMF Portwatch reports for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait for all days from August 10, 2026, through August 16, 2026, inclusive.
Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as all relevant data has been published. If the relevant data is not published within 14 calendar days of the specified date, this market will resolve based on the most recent data published up to that point.
In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF Portwatch differs from alternative sources.
Only revisions to previously published data points made before all relevant data has been published will be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF PortWatch, specifically the “Arrivals of Ships” data published for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/6b1814d64903461b98144a6cc25eb79c.Recent Houthi threats and attacks have kept Bab el-Mandeb transits suppressed, with daily averages around 31–32 vessels in late July data from Kpler and Clarksons—well below pre-crisis levels near 50. Escalations in early August, including missile strikes on vessels and the Mocha port, have reinforced rerouting incentives around the Cape of Good Hope, elevating war-risk insurance premiums and voyage costs. These security dynamics position sub-180 weekly totals as the leading implied probability at 45.5%, reflecting trader consensus on sustained avoidance amid unresolved regional tensions. Higher bins remain discounted due to limited near-term de-escalation signals ahead of the week’s close.
This market will resolve according to the total number of transit calls that IMF Portwatch reports for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait for all days from August 10, 2026, through August 16, 2026, inclusive.
Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as all relevant data has been published. If the relevant data is not published within 14 calendar days of the specified date, this market will resolve based on the most recent data published up to that point.
In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF Portwatch differs from alternative sources.
Only revisions to previously published data points made before all relevant data has been published will be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF PortWatch, specifically the “Arrivals of Ships” data published for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/6b1814d64903461b98144a6cc25eb79c.
Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as all relevant data has been published. If the relevant data is not published within 14 calendar days of the specified date, this market will resolve based on the most recent data published up to that point.
In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF Portwatch differs from alternative sources.
Only revisions to previously published data points made before all relevant data has been published will be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF PortWatch, specifically the “Arrivals of Ships” data published for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/6b1814d64903461b98144a6cc25eb79c.
Объем
$8,605Дата окончания
16 авг. 2026 г.Открытие рынка
Aug 8, 2026, 12:07 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent Houthi threats and attacks have kept Bab el-Mandeb transits suppressed, with daily averages around 31–32 vessels in late July data from Kpler and Clarksons—well below pre-crisis levels near 50. Escalations in early August, including missile strikes on vessels and the Mocha port, have reinforced rerouting incentives around the Cape of Good Hope, elevating war-risk insurance premiums and voyage costs. These security dynamics position sub-180 weekly totals as the leading implied probability at 45.5%, reflecting trader consensus on sustained avoidance amid unresolved regional tensions. Higher bins remain discounted due to limited near-term de-escalation signals ahead of the week’s close.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · Обновлено
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