**Forecast consensus points to an overnight low near 17–19°C on August 25, 2026, keeping the minimum well above 15°C while making a 25°C floor extremely unlikely.** Multiple numerical weather prediction sources, including ECMWF-influenced guidance and local Turkish Meteorological Service outputs, show clear to mostly clear skies, light northeast winds of 2–5 m/s, and dew points around 12–13°C that support efficient radiative cooling after sunset. Ankara’s elevation near 900 m and typically dry late-summer air mass amplify the diurnal temperature swing, routinely producing 12–15°C drops from daytime maxima of 30–34°C. **The near-even market odds between sub-15°C and 25°C+ outcomes reflect ongoing uncertainty in the precise minimum rather than a broad range of plausible values.** Small differences in boundary-layer moisture, wind direction, or residual cloud cover can shift the low by 1–2°C, which matters for the granular bins (16–22°C) that dominate volume. Historical climatology for late August shows average minima around 15–17°C, but the current stable high-pressure regime favors slightly milder readings unless an unexpected easterly flow advects cooler air. **Key resolution inputs will come from official station observations at Esenboğa Airport (LTAC) and Ankara city sites, with final values typically released within hours of midnight local time.** Updated model runs through August 24 evening could still nudge the forecast, particularly if humidity or wind fields change. Traders are therefore pricing the wisdom-of-crowds assessment of these short-term variables rather than any single deterministic outcome.